Eli meant to behave but there were way too many options.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Worry
Hurricane Gustav has already torn up many islands in the Caribbean. It's path is going to take it over water with very high hurricane intensification potential. Worry
Better is the ensemble package that shows a more likely westward track, which takes it over a plume of very warm water. The potential here is not good for where it makes landfall, as it is carrying a lot of water and power.
Let us emit positive karma into the multiverse for a more westward track to take NOLA out of the RFQ danger, and let us also emit positive karma into the multiverse for a new federal administration who can speed up disaster recovery down there.
The gist is right, but your hurricane intensification potential map is from last year. This year's is a bit less favorable (from the viewpoint of the hurricane).
As the latest track has shown, Gustav has now passed the zone of maximum heat potential. For that and a couple of other reasons, Gustav may have already peaked. The track is also trending a little more to the west, so NOLA may be spared the worst. A Cat 3 storm is still a serious matter, however.
With all the focus on the Gulf, East Coasters should still keep an eye on Hanna.
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Yup.
ReplyDeleteBetter is the ensemble package that shows a more likely westward track, which takes it over a plume of very warm water. The potential here is not good for where it makes landfall, as it is carrying a lot of water and power.
Let us emit positive karma into the multiverse for a more westward track to take NOLA out of the RFQ danger, and let us also emit positive karma into the multiverse for a new federal administration who can speed up disaster recovery down there.
Best,
D
The gist is right, but your hurricane intensification potential map is from last year. This year's is a bit less favorable (from the viewpoint of the hurricane).
ReplyDeleteWhoops, forgot to provide the correct link.
ReplyDeleteEeeps. Corrected. Thank you S.
ReplyDeleteI find Jeff Masters most useful at this time of year.
ReplyDeleteNot that it's coming anywhere near me, of course... but there is a certain morbid fascination in watching big weather events unfold.
As the latest track has shown, Gustav has now passed the zone of maximum heat potential. For that and a couple of other reasons, Gustav may have already peaked. The track is also trending a little more to the west, so NOLA may be spared the worst. A Cat 3 storm is still a serious matter, however.
ReplyDeleteWith all the focus on the Gulf, East Coasters should still keep an eye on Hanna.
http://www.nola.com/bourbocam/
ReplyDeleteThis ain't The Big One, although watch for politicians to spin it otherwise.
ReplyDeleteAt least not for NO, but it tore up the Caribbean (esp Cuba) pretty good. Anyhow we can be thankful it weakened before it hit the Gulf Coast.
ReplyDeleteAnd here I was thinking you told us to worry.
ReplyDelete