It is clear that the pattern of melt in the Arctic this year is different from last. It is not clear whether the ice area will be larger or smaller than last year. In any case there will be significantly less ice than in any year except for 2007.
One of the things that is happening is that it remains very warm on the Russian side of the Arctic, with temperatures exceeding 16 C (60F) in such wonderful beach towns as Pevek, (it was 20 C today), near 10 C (50 F) in Tiksi, and Dikson and forecast to be near 20 C in Murmansk. On the other side, things are colder in Barrow and Alert for example, with temperatures near or a bit below freezing.
So let us look at the contenders on August 20. You may have to click on ice maps to get more detail. First we have the official Rabett Run version as recommended by Alastair for which Bob Grumbine can take the blame. It is from NOAA/ National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Environmental Modeling Center. Using passive microwave sensing it still shows both the Northwest Passage and the passage near the Russian shore to be blocked, although not by much in each case. This means that Bob gets to decide. . . . .
Next we have the map from the Polar Research Group at the University of Illinois Champaign Urbana, aka Cryosphere Today, which show less ice cover with only minimal blockages in the paths near the Canadian and Russian shores.
And finally from the University of Bremen, Germany, Institut fuer Umweltphysik we have ice area maps, and as a special feature closeups of the NW passage.
Meanwhile the sea ice anomaly is very close to 2 million sq km, and the sea ice coverage is within 0.5 million sq km of last year's record.
The ARCUS July assesments are now out. http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/report_july.php Worth reading IMHO.
ReplyDeleteCobbly (on the edge of my seat) Worlds.
While you're listing my management tree, that's the Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/
ReplyDelete(The name of their web server gives the right idea about who started them on the web lo those many years ago.)
I, of course, do not speak for my employer, in blogworld or elsewhere.
While on the sea ice side of things, if you go to http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/nh.html
you can get side-by-side views of today versus a year ago today, or an animation of the last 30 days ice cover. The animations add a lot, I find.
Those who like to get their hand on numbers can also get the daily analysis data files. I also have a new data set to be releasing (the climate forecast system reanalysis sea ice -- 1979-present) Real Soon Now.
Hi Eli,
ReplyDeleteyou overlooked the excellent http://www.seaice.dk/iomasa page, which has some magificent material, including the capability to look at the original sat. hard copy images.NOAAs Anchorage desk has some good material, as does the Canadian sea ice service.
The best likelihood of seeing whether the NWP is clear is to use the danish satellite files; this is how I folllowed progress last year.
Regards (and thanks for the moral support elsewhere)
Fergus.