tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post9161229553653232151..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: The Models Suck: Part IEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47587873640958990942011-08-02T12:18:30.815-04:002011-08-02T12:18:30.815-04:00This looks relevant: http://is.gd/4RKuVs
Some eco...This looks relevant: http://is.gd/4RKuVs<br /><br />Some economists and philosophers have even argued that in cases of environmental preservation 0 percent is the only ethically defensible number. That is, no discounting at all. But this debate over percentages may actually be a distraction from a more serious problem with the formulas used in discounting.<br /><br />...<br /><br />Revising the assumption of a never-changing discount rate leads to results totally at odds with current economic practice, Geanakoplos and Farmer have shown. To understand their argument, consider the next half-century. Year by year, the true discount rate (which no one knows precisely) will probably fluctuate in some complicated way, following one of many possible up-and-down paths. Since we don’t know the future, to determine the effective discount rate for the 50-year period, we should average over all possibilities.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-25494337628205289992011-07-18T13:46:02.522-04:002011-07-18T13:46:02.522-04:00Also, I continue to be unconvinced that our future...Also, I continue to be unconvinced that our future generations are helped by the use of fossil fuels to, for example, build, heat+cool, and provide transport to and from, giant suburban McMansions. If you are arguing that spending resources and energy to a) research nuclear fusion, b) develop better crop varieties, c) develop better computer chips, d) improve education, or e) come up with pharmaceuticals that have fewer side effects... ok, I'll accept that reducing this kind of expenditure in order to reduce GHG emissions is one that should be weighed carefully in terms of net impact on future generations. Or if we are choosing between improving the standard of living of the poorest among us and reducing GHG emissions, fine. But those are false choices! Show me how not eliminating mortgage tax credits for one-family houses over, say, a million dollars would not result in a net improvement in quality of life integrated over the next hundred years, hmm?<br /><br />-MAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-71441158302223561192011-07-17T23:46:07.774-04:002011-07-17T23:46:07.774-04:00See here, Hank. The NSF article J linked is also ...See <a href="http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/05/28/methane-update/#comment-51226" rel="nofollow">here</a>, Hank. The NSF article J linked is also worth a read.<br /><br />Steve BloomAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-37998776826445234712011-07-17T15:46:08.872-04:002011-07-17T15:46:08.872-04:00I think this might be it.
IARC: East Siberian Met...I think this might be it.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/research/highlights/2011/east-siberian-nsf-strategic-plan" rel="nofollow">IARC: East Siberian Methane Leak Research Highlighted in NSF Strategic Plan</a>. There's a PDF there.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-68026504980679062492011-07-17T14:09:15.743-04:002011-07-17T14:09:15.743-04:00> the latest report from the NSF-funded observi...> the latest report from the NSF-funded observing teams up at the ESS <br />Steve, link or cite or pointer please?Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-60770203346628457192011-07-17T04:15:38.183-04:002011-07-17T04:15:38.183-04:00What happens when the rain eventually does fall in...What happens when the rain eventually does fall in Somalia; hypothermia.<br /><br />http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14165509<br /><br />How have the Tols, Lomborgs and Pielke Jr's modelled that kind of physical process? What's the algorithm?J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-44440021109946884522011-07-16T19:20:52.790-04:002011-07-16T19:20:52.790-04:00Just look at what's going on in the Somalia dr...Just look at what's going on in the Somalia drought region just now for a fine example of just how much we care about those poor people. So of course we can happily tell ourselves that we'll care even more in the future!<br /><br />Jeff, just so, the Lomborgs of the world serve a ready market, as Krugman <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/16/the-political-economy-of-the-lesser-depression/" rel="nofollow">references</a> today. Politicians, economists, pundits, even ordinary journalists have a far more direct employment connection to the rich than do most, and are very much aware of it, so why should they too not act on their own self-interest?<br /><br />Thanks for that, Phil. A related issue is the fate of the permafrost and especially the East Siberian Shelf methane, the consequences of the rapid release of which latter in particular beggar the imagination. As it's already been established (recent NSIDC paper) that the permafrost is starting to melt and *can't be stopped* since the releases are enough to force the process to a conclusion no matter what we do, and since the latest report from the NSF-funded observing teams up at the ESS points to imminent large-scale methane release (sufficent for an abrupt global T increase in the 10C range), I have to say I'm starting to lose hope.<br /><br />Steve BloomAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42307805868641841282011-07-16T14:18:00.530-04:002011-07-16T14:18:00.530-04:00There is no indication that people like Lomborg ac...There is no indication that people like Lomborg actually believe what they argue. Remember the GOP national convention in 2008. Right up until the moment that Sarah Palin was sprung upon the true believers, they were arguing the importance of "experience".<br /><br />The right wing apparently believes nothing except their own right to vast sums of money. (Not even vaguely the "fruit of their labor". Just the moolah itself. Consider the belief among financial services sector, loudly brayed, of their right to be bailed out.)<br /><br />People like Lomborg exist solely to provide words to be spoken. Some strange atavistic part of their brains recognizes that simply grabbing the loot without saying something -- anything -- would reflect poorly upon them.<br /><br />Jeffrey DavisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-291067875817558302011-07-16T00:09:40.209-04:002011-07-16T00:09:40.209-04:00Speaking of **Lomborg-Like Dilemmas**:
http://nev...Speaking of **Lomborg-Like Dilemmas**:<br /><br />http://neverendingaudit.tumblr.com/post/2516615652<br /><br />Vintage 2010.willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-69938156564134810592011-07-15T23:08:20.094-04:002011-07-15T23:08:20.094-04:00"Simulations of the coming century with the c..."Simulations of the coming century with the current generation of<br />complex models may be giving us a false sense of security."<br /><br /><br />http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n7/full/ngeo1200.html<br /><br /><br />If the models are too stable, then reality is likely to shock and awe.Phil Haysnoreply@blogger.com