tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post8651484203226319719..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Ringberg 2015: Andy Dessler ECS > 2K and moreEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-40128337573713111412015-03-25T16:42:10.410-04:002015-03-25T16:42:10.410-04:00Arthur: Yes, the constant RH framework is vastly s...Arthur: Yes, the constant RH framework is vastly superior to the standard decomposition. See Held, I., and K. M. Shell (2012), Using relative humidity as a state variable in climate feedback analysis, J. Climate, 25, 2578-2582, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00721.1 for a detailed discussion.Andrew Desslerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06930067023788250505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-51354461184591976672015-03-25T12:23:14.604-04:002015-03-25T12:23:14.604-04:00Referring back to an earlier comment I made on a t...Referring back to an earlier comment I made on <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2015/03/a-rashomon-update-on-climate-betting.html" rel="nofollow">a thread from a few days ago</a>, if you regress surface temperature to lagged ln(CO2), the slope of that line gives you ECS directly as 3.1, right in line with the result here by Andy.<br /><br />https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8734/16256795624_2c058317bc.jpg<br /><br />Mulitply the slope, 451, by ln(2) (because we're doubling CO2) to give 311. Since GISS temperture is measured in hundredths of a degree, that's 3.11 C per doubling.KAPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11189506171267750391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-41153863521492952262015-03-25T08:02:59.789-04:002015-03-25T08:02:59.789-04:00Good for AD, although it's a shame that he'...Good for AD, although it's a shame that he's had to keep repeating increasingly sophisticated versions of this message for so long. <br /><br />Since paleoclimate basically doesn't work unless ECS is <b>at least</b> ~2C there should be no need to labour this point. Central estimates of ECS below 2C can be presumed to be wrong. <br /><br />* * * <br /><br />Nobody cares what you think, Fernando.<br /><br />BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-70720324442777514782015-03-25T07:35:24.871-04:002015-03-25T07:35:24.871-04:00Hey, he uses a reference no-feedbacks "Planck...Hey, he uses a reference no-feedbacks "Planck" response at constant relative humidity, rather than constant temperature change! That's something I thought was absolutely needed, I didn't realize it had been seriously done. Excellent! Basically with that definition, no-feedbacks sensitivity is 2 K to doubling, which is the main point that comes out of his argument.Arthurhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06249922708053689717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-53496829086189950702015-03-25T07:21:30.373-04:002015-03-25T07:21:30.373-04:00It reminds me of the essay "How to inflate a ...It reminds me of the essay "How to inflate a life jacket using a vacuum bottle". Fernando Leanmehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16085680730729620836noreply@blogger.com