tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post8543011001735211339..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Climate FeedbackEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-31627446938110131442007-05-11T14:14:00.000-04:002007-05-11T14:14:00.000-04:00I was thinking more in terms of "One sided and alw...I was thinking more in terms of "One sided and always leading back to the same place"<BR/><BR/>...but "single twisted surface" works as well in this case.<BR/><BR/>--Horatio AlgeranonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-82344259875430092792007-05-11T13:14:00.000-04:002007-05-11T13:14:00.000-04:00A single twisted surface?A single twisted surface?EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-4574874441993949082007-05-11T09:52:00.000-04:002007-05-11T09:52:00.000-04:00You mean Moebius referencing?You mean Moebius referencing?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-60244374295777309722007-05-09T18:44:00.000-04:002007-05-09T18:44:00.000-04:00" I don't think that Pielke Jr. is being completel..." I don't think that Pielke Jr. is being completely dishonest. I think his lack of honesty is his extreme focus--almost autistic like--on one aspect of the hurricane issue. And hurricanes are only one subset of extreme weather events."<BR/><BR/>Is there any researcher on the planet who doesn't do this with his own research?C W Mageehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09706100504739548720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-10258251138795599002007-05-09T11:19:00.000-04:002007-05-09T11:19:00.000-04:00With sincerest apologies to Neil Young (but I don'...With sincerest apologies to Neil Young (but I don't think he'd mind)<BR/><BR/>Well, I dreamed I saw the science policy-wonks coming<BR/>Sayin' something about adaptation<BR/>There were peasants singin' and drummers drumming<BR/>And Trent Lott was on vacation<BR/>There was a Cat5 blowin' in the sun<BR/>That really kicked up the breeze<BR/>Look at global warming on the run in the twenty seventies<BR/>Look at all those poor-folk on the run in the twenty seventies<BR/><BR/>I was lyin' in a blown-out basement<BR/>With a full moon in my eyes<BR/>I was hopin' for a FEMA replacement<BR/>When the sun burst through the skies<BR/>There was a Dubya-man strumin' in my head<BR/>And I felt like I was goin' to die<BR/>Thinkin' about what Roger Pielke had said,<BR/>I was hopin' it was a lie<BR/>Thinkin' about what Roger Pielke had said,<BR/>I was hopin' it was a lie<BR/><BR/>Well, I dreamed I saw the silver spaceships flying<BR/>In the yellow haze of the sun<BR/>There were children crying and colors flying<BR/>All around the chosen ones<BR/>All in a dream, all in a dream<BR/>The loading had begun<BR/>Flyin' mother nature's silver seed<BR/>To a new home in the sun<BR/>Flyin' mother nature's silver seed<BR/>To a new home in the sunAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-69713074284638455902007-05-09T09:10:00.000-04:002007-05-09T09:10:00.000-04:00I was actually quite serious, especially when I no...I was actually quite serious, especially when I noted that "Neil was not talking about flying everybody".<BR/><BR/>Just look at New Orleans after Katrina and you can see who is going to get moved out of the danger zone -- or who is going to have his beach-front house rebuilt after it is destroyed (Trent Lott, anyone?). Even in this country, it aint going to be everyone. It's going to be the rich. Same as it ever was.<BR/><BR/>Pielke claims he is not opposed to mitigation, but you really have to look at the context of that claim. <BR/><BR/>How nice that Pielke is so concerned that people not use the hurricane/ global warming link to sell mitigation lest they undermine their already good case for mitigation. How nice.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-65616946444186532642007-05-09T04:06:00.000-04:002007-05-09T04:06:00.000-04:00In all Sirius-ness, much as I disagree with Tobis'...In all Sirius-ness, much as I disagree with Tobis' general approach to things Promethean, he's dead right about RC. snarkiness doesnt cut it too well in science dispute blogging. I agree the Pielke Jr. guy is basically a blog-killer, and I think basically restraint but persistence will reveal that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-17211520769481940932007-05-08T13:51:00.000-04:002007-05-08T13:51:00.000-04:00Of course, Neil was not talking about flying every...Of course, Neil was not talking about flying <I>everybody</I>, but those are just <I>minor</I> details that are best left to the policy wonks.<BR/><BR/>--HAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-33657125011221283532007-05-08T13:45:00.000-04:002007-05-08T13:45:00.000-04:00"to say now that they gotta go [from the beach], ..."to say now that they gotta go [from the beach], is essentially like saying resettle the earth, it ain't gonna happen."<BR/><BR/>How do you know? <BR/><BR/>Neil Young think's it's possible.<BR/><BR/>After all, his song <A HREF="http://www.cowboylyrics.com/lyrics/young-neil/after-the-gold-rush-1315.html" REL="nofollow">"After the Gold Rush"</A> deals with that very issue -- transporting people ( off the beaches) "to a new home in the sun".<BR/><BR/>All in a dream, all in a dream<BR/>The loading had begun<BR/>Flyin' mother nature's silver seed<BR/>To a new home in the sun<BR/>Flyin' mother nature's silver seed<BR/>To a new home in the sun" -- Neil Young<BR/><BR/>I wonder if Pielke has ever calculated how much <I>that</I> little adaptation would cost.<BR/><BR/>-- Horatio AlgeranonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-66569150382256770422007-05-08T13:30:00.000-04:002007-05-08T13:30:00.000-04:00By the way, I believe the term for referencing one...By the way, I believe the term for referencing oneself is "self-reverence".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-52921579856879205842007-05-08T13:14:00.000-04:002007-05-08T13:14:00.000-04:00Eli said" to give Roger his due, land use policy a...Eli said" to give Roger his due, land use policy and climate science do intersect strongly."<BR/><BR/>I thought that's what most of us were already doing here, "giving Roger his due". :-)<BR/><BR/>"the real issue is that people settled low lying areas simply because they had access to water transportation"<BR/><BR/>To say nothing of the fact that millions of people live near the water or in floodplains because that's where their livelihood is (they fish for a living or work in a city that sits on the water, as many of the world's largest cities do).<BR/><BR/>In many cases people simply have no choice but to "live on/near the beach" as in Bangladesh where its hard to avoid living near the water or on a floodplain. <BR/><BR/>To give Roger his due, that's precisely why I think his argument is so useless.<BR/><BR/>Horatio AlgeranonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-11138068147986913692007-05-08T10:52:00.000-04:002007-05-08T10:52:00.000-04:00Bryson Reid is a retired climatologist whose great...Bryson Reid is a retired climatologist whose greatest claim to fame was that he was the prime mover behind the "we're all headed into an ice-age theory" in the 1970s. Now he has come out and bashed the science behind global warming and is being hailed as a prophet among deniers, who had previously ridiculed his earlier work.<BR/><BR/>I've written a little more about him back home.bigcitylibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05081538803991095825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-41639777946853198222007-05-08T10:28:00.000-04:002007-05-08T10:28:00.000-04:00Pielke is getting razzed a bit for publishing in t...Pielke is <A HREF="http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/" REL="nofollow">getting razzed a bit</A> for publishing in this skeptic journal and then continuously reciting it.<BR/><BR/>His answers seem pretty lame. "It wasn't a skeptic journal when I published in it, but I'll still cite the paper as a source."<BR/><BR/>Mus musculus anonymouseAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-50688807772436260852007-05-08T09:52:00.000-04:002007-05-08T09:52:00.000-04:00The chase the mice away point is don't build on th...The chase the mice away point is don't build on the beach especially barrier islands, but the real issue is that people settled low lying areas simply because they had access to water transportation, and to say now that they gotta go, is essentially like saying resettle the earth, it ain't gonna happen.<BR/><BR/>However, to give Roger his due, land use policy and climate science do intersect strongly.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-57562584385253729732007-05-08T08:29:00.000-04:002007-05-08T08:29:00.000-04:00You're right, it would take two people because it ...You're right, it would take two people because it would be hard for most individual people to be so inconsistent.<BR/><BR/>And I really doubt that he was the first to publish the point that people should not build on the beach.<BR/><BR/>I'd bet that someone has been saying that for as long as there have been hurricanes, beaches and humans.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-18851868504712549312007-05-08T07:17:00.000-04:002007-05-08T07:17:00.000-04:00Having several of Pielke's hurricane's/climate cha...Having several of Pielke's hurricane's/climate change/mitigation posts, I have always had one thought.<BR/><BR/>Couldn't two grad students have reached this same conclusion on a Wednesday night over pizza and a pitcher of beer?<BR/><BR/>It seems rather obvious. But it seems to be this one point that Pielke seems to have published first and he's holding onto it like a pit bull.<BR/><BR/>Mus musculus anonymouseAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-84813325711007322152007-05-08T00:51:00.000-04:002007-05-08T00:51:00.000-04:00"please don't link to any of his posts. It's likel..."please don't link to any of his posts. It's likely to bring him over here."<BR/><BR/>You will note that I did not link to his site , though I'm not sure that makes much difference. <BR/><BR/>He seems to show up whenever his name is mentioned. <BR/><BR/>Actually, his first couple posts are always good for a few laughs. It's only when he hangs around (under the bridge, waiting for the billy goats to cross) that the migraine sets in.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-79235025778371025182007-05-08T00:33:00.000-04:002007-05-08T00:33:00.000-04:00What Pielke says about the need for hurricane adap...What Pielke says about the need for hurricane adaptation is both obvious and superfluous.<BR/><BR/>People will adapt no matter what.<BR/><BR/>I could at least understand his argument if he were saying that "it is an either or situation with hurricanes: Either we spend the money on hurricane mitigation efforts or we spend it on hurricane adaptation efforts".<BR/><BR/>But that is <I>not</I> what Pielke has argued in the Climate feedback piece. In fact, quite the opposite: he said that "this does not mean that climate stabilization policies do not make sense". This would seem to mean the we should do mitigation even though we do not do it specifically to address hurricanes.<BR/><BR/>So I am really puzzled as to precisely what he is arguing here.<BR/><BR/>Perhaps most puzzling of all in light of the other things he said is Pielke's statement that "This does not mean ...that policy makers should ignore influences of human-caused climate change on tropical cyclone behavior."<BR/><BR/>WTF?<BR/><BR/>That statement came just after his claim that "Efforts to modulate tropical cyclone intensities through climate stabilization policies have extremely limited potential to reduce future losses."<BR/><BR/>If that is the case, why <I>shouldn't</I> policymakers policy makers simply "ignore influences of human-caused climate change on tropical cyclone behavior"?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-90931326015106675032007-05-07T23:27:00.000-04:002007-05-07T23:27:00.000-04:00It's fine to mention Lubos, but please don't link ...It's fine to mention Lubos, but please don't link to any of his posts. It's likely to bring him over here.<BR/><BR/>And he makes my head hurt.<BR/><BR/>Mus musculus anonymouseAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-8565890517947328432007-05-07T22:43:00.000-04:002007-05-07T22:43:00.000-04:00I have encountered engineers and scientists over t...I have encountered engineers and scientists over the years who understood quite advanced physical and mathematical concepts without having a good grasp of some rather basic ones.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-19732342408796072962007-05-07T20:46:00.000-04:002007-05-07T20:46:00.000-04:00Of course, there is always the lying sack option.Of course, there is always the lying sack option.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-63957363441550267822007-05-07T20:37:00.000-04:002007-05-07T20:37:00.000-04:00While we are on the subject of climate feedback.I ...While we are on the subject of climate feedback.<BR/><BR/>I noticed Lubos Motl is plugging the following on his blog: <BR/><BR/>"The 800-year lag is one of many ways to show the anti-Gore direction of the causal relationship. Everyone who still fails to understand that the ice core data don't contain any empirical evidence for the greenhouse effect reveals his or her inadequate thinking skills."<BR/><BR/>"We have discussed this issue in detail, including some analysis of the hypothesis of a strong amplification of the initial temperature variations. Such an amplification is not only invisible in the data but <B>it is very unlikely to be significant because it it were larger than the influence of temperature on the concentrations during the 800 years where a change of the trend could be seen, the climate would be a positive-feedback system that would have already exponentially grown out of the control in the past</B>. The data make it much more likely that there are many negative, self-regulating feedbacks in the system."<BR/><BR/>The wording that I highlighted in bold above is more than a little f...ed up (to say the least), but it is nonetheless clear what Motl is trying to say (albeit in a distinctly "Dubya-like" way).<BR/><BR/>He is obviously under the impression that positive feedback in the case under discussion would necessarily have led to to exponential growth. <BR/><BR/>Such is not the case.<BR/><BR/>I don't pretend to know why a Harvard physicist would believe such poppy-cock, but as I see it, there are a few possibilities:<BR/><BR/>1) Motl has a poor understanding of the relationship between temperature increase and atmospheric CO2 concentration -- in particular, that each increment of CO2 added to the atmosphere increases the temperature less than the last.<BR/><BR/>2) Motl has a poor understanding of basic calculus -- in particular, of what exponential growth is all about.<BR/><BR/>3) All of the above.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-33124785932490414622007-05-07T13:36:00.000-04:002007-05-07T13:36:00.000-04:00Here's another interesting point that Mills makes:...Here's another interesting point that Mills makes: "In any event, the consequences of future climate change will be amplified by economic development and the tendency of populations to move into harm's way."<BR/><BR/>If you assume that people are going to "build on the beach" no matter what you do (which they will in many places around th world because that's where they earn their livelihood), then every dollar spent on mitigation will have a multiplicative effect.<BR/><BR/>Pielke seems to assume that money would be better spent keeping people off the beach entirely, but that is most likely not feasible in every case.<BR/><BR/>Horatio AlgeranonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-64356721123397768212007-05-07T13:17:00.000-04:002007-05-07T13:17:00.000-04:00Probably not the most significant, but nonetheless...Probably not the most significant, but nonetheless perhaps one of the more interesting things in the Mills article is the <A HREF="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5737/1040/FIG4" REL="nofollow">link between lightning-related losses and temperature (showing an increase)</A> which just underescores Mus' point above that "hurricanes are only one subset of extreme weather events.".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-20904904407882261572007-05-07T13:06:00.000-04:002007-05-07T13:06:00.000-04:00Thanks Mus Musculous for the reference to the Evan...Thanks Mus Musculous for the reference to the Evan Mills article.<BR/> <BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5737/1040#FIG2" REL="nofollow">Here's the link to it</A><BR/><BR/>While Mills acknowledges that "Socioeconomic and demographic trends clearly play important—and likely dominant—roles in the observed upward loss trends", he also notes that "Global weather-related losses in recent years have been trending upward much faster than population, inflation, or insurance penetration, and faster than non–weather-related events (Fig. 2D)."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com