tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post7906517611011527300..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: We Got a WinnerEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-16613452994636947782011-03-07T01:58:33.575-05:002011-03-07T01:58:33.575-05:00Personally, as an ex experimental high-energy part...Personally, as an ex experimental high-energy particle physicist with some crap, but peer-reviewed, papers to his name, I tend to feel we'd all be better off if most people tried to get published here:<br />http://www.universalrejection.org/winstonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14425489734425086756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-71793597248041128172011-03-06T10:43:21.869-05:002011-03-06T10:43:21.869-05:00"Tomas Milanovic" is pulling a Spencer. ..."Tomas Milanovic" is pulling a <a href="http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/02/03/a-challenge-to-dr-roy-spencer/" rel="nofollow">Spencer</a>. As Pekka Pirila points out, <a href="http://judithcurry.com/2011/03/05/chaos-ergodicity-and-attractors/#comment-52836" rel="nofollow">the posteriors</a> are unconcerned.Lazarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-33951524348434184062011-03-05T20:24:11.688-05:002011-03-05T20:24:11.688-05:00Eli got a guessEli <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2011/03/toy-model.html" rel="nofollow">got a guess</a>EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-13541482057278392942011-03-05T20:22:25.477-05:002011-03-05T20:22:25.477-05:00John Mashey --- My first reaction was that even do...John Mashey --- My first reaction was that even dogs need astrologers, after all, Sirius and all that.<br /><br />That was before I started reading about the sheep. So I think I'll skip JSR and try to forget about it.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-66195081193564739562011-03-05T17:51:58.467-05:002011-03-05T17:51:58.467-05:00In the 1600s the Royal Society tried transfusing s...In the 1600s the Royal Society tried transfusing some sheep's blood into a man. Then they got a letter supposedly from the man, but written by some coffeehouse wits (predecessors of bloggers). He complained about having developed various sheepish characteristics and signed the letter "Agnus Dei".<br /><br />(wv = folde)Holly Stickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01137842937086115228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-19682439070332668862011-03-05T17:04:02.541-05:002011-03-05T17:04:02.541-05:00Any university researcher who was proposing to suf...Any university researcher who was proposing to suffocate sheep would have to get approval from the Institutional Review Board. Did the sheep give informed consent? (If the sheep could speak Latin, they might say, "Nos moratri te salutamus", we who are about to die salute you. That would be taken as signifying consent.)<br /><br />Any university researcher would be well advised to be on the alert for the Sheep Liberation Front and other terrorist groups. Humans sympathize with sheep, dogs, cat, monkeys, and any cute and cuddly creature. It's safer to run experiments on fruitflies or E. coli, or even better on rats and roaches. Yuck!Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09575837647825433144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-90363697873597991852011-03-05T16:10:05.537-05:002011-03-05T16:10:05.537-05:00Over at Climate Etc., Tomas Milanovic is discussin...Over at Climate Etc., Tomas Milanovic is discussing a comment that Eli had made:<br /><br />http://judithcurry.com/2011/03/05/chaos-ergodicity-and-attractors/Holly Stickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01137842937086115228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-34021630127728928152011-03-05T15:56:23.054-05:002011-03-05T15:56:23.054-05:00Rattus: yes, that's what "inexplicable tr...Rattus: yes, that's what "inexplicable transient weight gains found when suffocating sheep" was about.<br /><br />Really, everyone here owes themselves the amusement of:<br />1) Going to <a href="http://www.scientificexploration.org/journal/articles.html" rel="nofollow">JSE</a>.<br /><br />2) Perusing all the titles, of which all but the last year have freely-available PDFs.<br /><br />3) Selecting a few likely candidates to examine in further detail. <br />4) Report research on favorites. The sheep research was my favorite, but later supplanted by dog astrology.<br /><br />I've looked most closely at issue 19:2, since it has the Deming article quoted by McIntyre&McKitrick, and then Andrew Montford (He Who Quotes from Dog Astrology Journal, as a key basis for the Hockey Stick Illusion, augmented by falsification to attack Overpeck, see <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Talk:The_Hockey_Stick_Illusion&oldid=380146816#HSI_pp.23-30.2C_421_..._dog_astrology" rel="nofollow">this</a>.John Masheynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-59709728112810010592011-03-05T15:40:04.246-05:002011-03-05T15:40:04.246-05:00Thanks Rattus, I had the impression from John'...Thanks Rattus, I had the impression from John's description that the strangler was the one who lost weight and had nightmare visions of a new bestseller: Lose Weight by Suffocating Sheep.Holly Stickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01137842937086115228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-87754512430922500352011-03-05T11:50:55.982-05:002011-03-05T11:50:55.982-05:00Wasn't JSE the rag that published the infamous...Wasn't JSE the rag that published the infamous "sheep with souls" article? That one was a real gem in which the researcher strangled a bunch of sheep and weighed them before and after death to see how much their soul weighed! I'd have to say that the experimental design was, um, interesting...Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-82063440562022706162011-03-05T11:04:57.723-05:002011-03-05T11:04:57.723-05:00Another author has followed the last one with furt...<em>Another author has followed the last one with further research, but it is not yet freely available.</em><br /><br />Most Disturbing Footnote: "You know, people are kind of like sheep, when you think about it."<br /><br />Lose weight the Thuggee way!Marion Delgadonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-43202328806372940782011-03-05T09:31:14.249-05:002011-03-05T09:31:14.249-05:00David:
UFOlogy is commonplace.
JSE goes far beyond...David:<br />UFOlogy is commonplace.<br />JSE goes far beyond. I can imagine nowhere else that has covered dog astrology, reincarnation if WW II soldiers as Myanmar children, the hum heard around the world, and inexplicable transient weight gains found when suffocating sheep. Another author has followed the last one with further research, but it is not yet freely available.John Masheynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-31516548438818205112011-03-05T08:37:56.359-05:002011-03-05T08:37:56.359-05:00Dear Anonymous:
I skimmed the abstract by Hermann...Dear Anonymous:<br /><br />I skimmed the abstract by Hermann Harde, who is not a global warming denier. Harde calculates a smaller rise in global temperature (about 0.45 C) as a result of doubling CO2, compared with the IPCC number (3C), by a factor of about 7. <br /><br />The IPCC result is based on: (1) a rise of 1.2 C from doubled ed CO2 in the atmosphere, causing an enhanced Greenhouse effect, and (2) positive feedbacks (ice-albedo, rising water vapor concentrations) which raise the IPCC estimate to about 3 C +_ 1.5 C. <br /><br />Harde has calculated only the atmospheric effects, and has ignored feedbacks completely. So his result of 0.45 C should be compared with the IPCC "no-feedback" estimate of 1.2 C. Thus the discrepancy is more like a factor of three, not seven.<br /><br />Where does it come from? It struck me that Harde does not describe what measures, if any, he took to verify that his calculations is free of numerical or coding mistakes. (Dropped a factor of pi??)<br />Harde should validate his computer programs by calculating something that is simple enough to have an analytical expression. For example, see Chapter 4, "The grey gas model," in Raymond Pierrehumbert's recent textbook, Principles of Planetary Climate. <br /><br />Among climate scientists, there is very little controversy about the "no-feedback" result. It has been known for decades. Harde is new to the field. So if I had to bet money on one of the two possibilities:<br />Harde overlooked something, or everybody else overlooked something for decades, I know how I'd bet.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09575837647825433144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-13433195037099251182011-03-05T08:00:12.557-05:002011-03-05T08:00:12.557-05:00In dealing with irrational beliefs, I've alway...In dealing with irrational beliefs, I've always found the <a href="http://www.skepdic.com" rel="nofollow">Skeptic's Dictionary</a> to be very useful.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09575837647825433144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-45648061756924658152011-03-05T00:03:35.444-05:002011-03-05T00:03:35.444-05:00"palindrom" here. Over in the wacky wor..."palindrom" here. Over in the wacky world of Huffington Post, a denialist troll posted a link to this odd paper:<br /><br />http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2011/EGU2011-4505-1.pdf<br /><br />in which Hermann Harde, a laser spectroscopist morphs into a climate modeler, inserts some very good molecular data into what appears to be a rather crude, toy, do-it-yourself planetary atmosphere, and decides the CO2 isn't quite what it's cracked up to be as a greenhouse gas. Can someone who is actually expert at this give an authoritative review of this? (Dammit, Jim), I'm an astronomer, not a planetary atmospheres person, so I don't have the requisite deep knowledge of planetary atmospheres models, but the inquiring minds posting here ought to know ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-87804554487223631032011-03-04T22:51:22.662-05:002011-03-04T22:51:22.662-05:00John Mashey --- Thank you.
Any journal publishing...John Mashey --- Thank you.<br /><br />Any journal publishing UFOlogy can't be all bad...David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-2675897916999798432011-03-04T22:21:52.690-05:002011-03-04T22:21:52.690-05:00JSE = Journal of Scientific Exploration, or the do...JSE = Journal of Scientific Exploration, or <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2010/11/journal-of-scientific-exploration-is.html" rel="nofollow">the dog astrology journal</a>, of which McIntyre/McKitrick and Montford are fond.<br /><br />(From IE, previous one was from Safari on iPhone).John Masheynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-91320643272964759552011-03-04T19:46:42.114-05:002011-03-04T19:46:42.114-05:00John Mashey --- JSE?John Mashey --- JSE?David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-91930695912853712412011-03-04T17:08:33.364-05:002011-03-04T17:08:33.364-05:00So if the editors find your experiment actually wo...So if the editors find your experiment actually worked, you get rejected?Douglas Wattshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06686351092076044875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-54431740860524575272011-03-04T10:48:35.952-05:002011-03-04T10:48:35.952-05:00And a key term to search for "no results"...And a key term to search for "no results":<br /><br />"String"<br /><br />We had "string" papers for 40 years before they were not detected.Horatio Algeranonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12988805467080448954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-8045587536129482442011-03-04T10:18:28.766-05:002011-03-04T10:18:28.766-05:00JIR is a fine journal, but doesn't publish jus...JIR is a fine journal, but doesn't publish just anything, but humor like that in Stress Analysis of A Strapless Evening Gown, or anything written by J.B. Cadwallader-Cohen, who I actually used to work for, albeit under his real name.<br /><br />I think All Results might even be useful, see <a href="http://www.lablit.com/article/520" rel="nofollow">article</a>.<br /><br />I still think JSE is the champ. When All Results publishes studies shoeing no correlation of dog personalities with astrological signs, I may reconsider.John Masheynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-16452799263155083702011-03-04T05:45:29.164-05:002011-03-04T05:45:29.164-05:00Another key term to search for negative results:
...Another key term to search for negative results:<br /><br />upper limits<br /><br />We had "upper limits" papers on neutrino oscillations for 40 years before they were detected.a_ray_in_dilbert_spacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-64421468271140895692011-03-04T01:44:04.107-05:002011-03-04T01:44:04.107-05:00In at least some areas of physics and astronomy, n...In at least some areas of physics and astronomy, negative results can be published. How can you spot these papers? The title starts with "Search for..."<br />This spell failure. You conducted a search for some molecule using (say) a microwave telescope, found nothing, and now publish upper limits on the abundance of that molecule in that part of the sky.<br /><br />Experimental high-energy particle physicists can publish "search for..." some exotic particle that wasn't detected. The experiment failed, but an upper limit has been determined for the cross section for production of that particle.<br /><br />Years ago, particle theorists had the idea that the proton might decay at some very very small rate, and the quarks might escape from the proton. A number of high power theorists calculated estimates of the lifetime of the proton. Large scale experiments were conducted to detect proton decay. So far, no proton decay has ever been detected. <br /><br />I recall around 1980, when these experiments were planned, one experimentalist told me "I hope it [the proton] doesn't decay, because the theorists have been so insufferable about it."John Farleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01589237239187934891noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-1751113291001043852011-03-03T20:48:35.973-05:002011-03-03T20:48:35.973-05:00Then there is the
Journal of Irreproducible Resul...Then there is the<br /><br />Journal of Irreproducible Results.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42214600317943550442011-03-03T19:22:22.890-05:002011-03-03T19:22:22.890-05:00And if 'The All Results Journals:Chem' rej...And if 'The All Results Journals:Chem' rejects your paper you could always try 'Journal of Unsolved Questions' (http://junq.info)or even 'The Journal of Serendipitous and Unexpected Results' (http://jsur.org). Since there seems so much nonsense circling, particularly in the blogosphere, I suppose its only natural there would be a growth of places to put it.brucednoreply@blogger.com