tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post7006271802726364491..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Another Reason to Close Schools of CommunicationEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-5081584361511924382012-10-16T09:00:27.334-04:002012-10-16T09:00:27.334-04:00The Arab Spring that Brian alluded to is made all ...The Arab Spring that Brian alluded to is made all the more piquant by noting that this is the 3rd harvest in a row that Pakistan has lost due to floods. And that this years loss in the central plains has been augmented by drought in the north.<br /><br />Pakistan isn't Arab, but it is Muslim.<br /><br />And they have a large, well-funded Islamist underground.<br /><br />And nukes.<br /><br />Jeffrey Davishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966839006518642902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-4093022669618145112012-10-16T02:23:21.490-04:002012-10-16T02:23:21.490-04:00[part 2]
"Drought has become more frequent a...[part 2]<br /><br />"Drought has become more frequent and more severe in recent years and drought‐affected areas are projected to increase in extent."<br />"The significant increases in global cereal prices during the 2007/08 and 2010/11 food price episodes were largely weather related, sometimes exacerbated by government policies. Droughts in large cereal producing countries, namely the Russia Federation and Ukraine, coincided with the start of the most recent price increases. These increases were compounded by subsequent floods in Pakistan, and then in Australia and the USA, which all contributed to concerns about global supplies, putting further upward pressure on prices." www.fao.org/crisis/28402-0f9dad42f33c6ad6ebda108ddc1009adf.pdf<br /><br />"The weather we experience at mid-latitudes is largely dictated by these waves in the jet stream. The slower the waves move, the longer the weather associated with them will persist. Essentially, “hot,” “dry,” “cold,” and “rainy” are all terms to describe very normal weather conditions. It’s only when those conditions persist in one area for too long that they are dubbed with the names of their extreme alter egos: heat waves, drought, cold spells, and floods. And these kinds of extreme events are precisely what we’ve seen more of in recent years." Dr. Jennifer Francis, research professor at the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University - also see https://ams.confex.com/ams/92Annual/flvgateway.cgi/id/19239?recordingid=19239<br /><br />"As we have seen in the origins of the Arab Spring, high food prices and the inability of governments to continue price supports can help trigger significant political upheaval. Climate change will only exacerbate these threats to political stability, increasing the pressures on governance, institutions and the political economy more broadly worldwide. Our analysis indicates that emerging resource scarcity patterns, particularly in the areas of food, water and oil, combined with climate change are placing a much larger set of countries at risk of increased political instability than previously estimated. Such additional risk not only endangers the ability of governments to discharge basic functions, including any required support for food security and nutrition, but also in more extreme cases, can serve to undermine the state's legitimacy, and with it <b>security and the rule of law.</b>"<br />http://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/hlpe/hlpe_documents/_Climate_Change/Climate_Change_e-Consultation_proceedings_Scope.pdf<br /><br />Do you think that food riots and their effect on the social and political fabric of civilization can only happen in third world countries, and so are of no consequence?Brian Dodgehttp://www.realclimate.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-71211855310222575202012-10-16T02:19:47.400-04:002012-10-16T02:19:47.400-04:00"...present evidence of a food or a grain dec..."...present evidence of a food or a grain decreasing in production." Okey-Dokey<br /><br />"What had started out as a promising year for U.S. crop production, with high total acreage planted and favorable early-season planting conditions has turned into one of the most serious adverse weather situations in decades. Crop production estimates for corn, soybeans, sorghum and hay declined throughout the summer as the drought intensified, and by September USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) production estimates for corn were down 27.5 percent from those reported in May, and production estimates for soybeans and sorghum fell 16 percent and 26.5 percent, respectively, over the same period." http://www.ers.usda.gov/newsroom/us-drought-2012-farm-and-food-impacts.aspx<br /><br />"We analyzed weather data at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1979 to 2003 to examine temperature trends and the relationship between rice yield and temperature by using data from irrigated field experiments conducted at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1992 to 2003. Here we report that annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.35°C and 1.13°C, respectively, for the period 1979–2003 and a close linkage between rice grain yield and mean minimum temperature during the dry cropping season (January to April). Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1°C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season, whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant. This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming." http://www.pnas.org/content/101/27/9971.long<br /><br />"Australian drought in 2006 led to a shortage of wheat in the international market, which drove grain prices up further." http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gid/?n=news_10<br /><br />[end of part 1]Brian Dodgehttp://www.realclimate.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-37240528543565884952012-10-15T21:52:15.366-04:002012-10-15T21:52:15.366-04:00Down with Planck's Principle! Let Eli live!
...Down with Planck's Principle! Let Eli live! <br /><br />That of hand remark of Planck's about the acceptance of new theories depending on old fogies dying does not hold up very well if at all. <br />Safe tenured old ones may entertain new ideas while fresh PhD's fear career damage. <br /><br />some links - I think there is a good study from 2000 give or take a few years that I have not been able to recall that puts Planck to bed. <br />some links - not the greatest but something - <br /><br />http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract;jsessionid=FA69D3A1200374FA605C407A1B7BD4B8.journals?fromPage=online&aid=7575060<br /><br />http://sss.sagepub.com/content/33/1/137.short<br /><br />http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/285535?uid=3739600&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=21101272516591<br /><br />http://www.artdiamond.com/DiamondPDFs/PlancksPrinciple.pdf<br /><br />Pete DunkelbergAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-84430175560582279722012-10-15T20:58:05.640-04:002012-10-15T20:58:05.640-04:00Sorry, lump. Food stocks are down worldwide to the...Sorry, lump. Food stocks are down worldwide to their lowest levels since the early 70s. Jeffrey Davishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966839006518642902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-74932565346813119852012-10-15T20:37:50.096-04:002012-10-15T20:37:50.096-04:00George Monbiot points out that farmers cannot plan...George Monbiot points out that farmers cannot plan for extreme weather. With droughts and fires, the US is not exactly escaping the consequences of AGW; the farmers will figure that out as they go bankrupt from yet another crop failure.<br /><br />http://www.monbiot.com/2012/10/15/empty-promise/Holly Stickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01137842937086115228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-56510653520668512522012-10-15T15:55:21.462-04:002012-10-15T15:55:21.462-04:00John Cook put up a post some months ago about the...John Cook put up <a href="http://theconversation.edu.au/can-australian-farmers-take-on-the-challenge-of-climate-change-6957" rel="nofollow">a post </a> some months ago about the attitude to climate change some Australian farmers had and how it changed as a result of an educational effort conducted by the Farm Business Resilience Program. Before the program: <br /><br />"33% reported that they agreed climate change was occurring and just 19% believed climate change was human induced. Surveys at the end of the course assessed perceptions, knowledge and attitudes again, now showing that 80% of the farmers understood the impact of climate change and variability change on their businesses".david lewishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01057820755734099375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-33599786072936572392012-10-15T15:54:41.992-04:002012-10-15T15:54:41.992-04:00If anything, global warming is helping farmers. If...<i>If anything, global warming is helping farmers. If Eli would like to dispute this claim, he needs to present evidence of a food or a grain decreasing in production.</i><br /><br />Your wish...<br /><i>UN warns of looming worldwide food crisis in 2013<br />• Global grain reserves hit critically low levels<br />• Extreme weather means climate 'is no longer reliable'<br />• Rising food prices threaten disaster and unrest</i><br /><br />http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/oct/14/un-global-food-crisis-warningTurboblockenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-4306950799170462292012-10-15T15:40:52.381-04:002012-10-15T15:40:52.381-04:00Just because I'm dead everyone and his rabbit ...Just because I'm dead everyone and his rabbit thinks they can blame everything on ME. You'll see - it bothers you when they start naming problems after you after you're dead. <br /><br />I say its Eli's Problem. Call it anything: Wabett's Worry... Eli's Exasperation... Whatever. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15652607160775122108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-27593320899825340022012-10-15T15:33:47.398-04:002012-10-15T15:33:47.398-04:00Journalism in the USA is just another business, wi...Journalism in the USA is just another business, with the same pressures as all other US businesses to do more with less people, or more with less qualified people. The only way a working journalist can hope to accomplish anything is to rely on press releases. <br /><br />You can blame the journalists, or you can start working with the situation on the ground. Scientists and organizations interested in getting media coverage have to make it easy for the media to assemble their product. Supply video, audio, print media that tells the message you want people to hear.<br /><br />GatorGatornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-31370369341085470812012-10-15T14:12:52.728-04:002012-10-15T14:12:52.728-04:00Dr. Lumpus Spookytooth, phd.
If anything, global ...Dr. Lumpus Spookytooth, phd.<br /><br />If anything, global warming is helping farmers. If Eli would like to dispute this claim, he needs to present evidence of a food or a grain decreasing in production. According to the Red Cross, more people are overweight than are starving. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-60637336092933700312012-10-15T12:40:12.809-04:002012-10-15T12:40:12.809-04:00Think about how grimly comic it is that our govern...Think about how grimly comic it is that our government can be hamstrung by around 5% of our fellow citizens. The smallest 20 states have around 10% of our population. In practice, it's worse. Non-presidential elections get wretched turnouts. <br /><br />Immigrants, you're not fixed to one location yet: if you want outsize political influence, move to Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas, Nevada, etc.<br /><br />Jeffrey Davishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966839006518642902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-16624160391351458102012-10-15T12:26:37.796-04:002012-10-15T12:26:37.796-04:00We live in a society where money talks, and the ri...We live in a society where money talks, and the rich try to isolate themselves from reality. <br />Advertising pays journalists salaries. <br /><br />Watch the news, do you see fancy ads for NCAR or Chevron. Pick up a news paper. Do you see ads for Standford University or Honda? <br /><br />Journalists do not bite the hand that feeds them. Now, ExxonMobile, Chevron, & American Gas Ass. fund the Newshour.<br /><br />Compare that to Europe where are government funded news organizations get the science correct, because they are paid to just get the facts correct.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Aaronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05150805906414546377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-37523694115418523402012-10-15T12:10:25.642-04:002012-10-15T12:10:25.642-04:00During an interview I heard when it was aired by t...During an interview I heard when it was aired by the national public radio in Australia, Paul Ehrlich told a story about when he and Steve Schnieder went to the home of Ben Bradlee to hash this issue out with him. (Bradlee was the editor of the Washington Post when Woodward and Bernstein reported on the Watergate story). <br /><br />Ehrlich said they had a "knock down drag out" fight with Bradlee over the way climate is reported in the media.<br /><br />Ehrlich: "<i>He [Bradlee] claimed that his reporters should be ignorant of science, so they could be neutral with they're talking about it</i>".<br /><br />A mere non Paul Ehrlich and non Steve Schnieder type like myself wonders if they asked Bradlee why he didn't (doesn't?) insist that his political reporters, i.e. such as Woodward and Bernstein, <i>be ignorant of politics</i> so they can be neutral while reporting. Inquiring minds want to know.... But back to another action packed quote:<br /><br />Ehrlich: "And you can see the ignorance of science throughout the media with the idea that the truth often has to lie in the middle. Its always about getting both sides of the story. Show me an historic scientific controversy where the truth lay in the middle.... Do some animals evolve and others are created? Is flogiston real, or is it half-real?"david lewishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01057820755734099375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-86351180159834699702012-10-15T11:50:48.073-04:002012-10-15T11:50:48.073-04:00Journalists? We don't need no steenking journ...Journalists? We don't need no steenking journalists!GoldHat MexicanGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12357221865884480089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47493997086072612722012-10-15T10:45:23.669-04:002012-10-15T10:45:23.669-04:00n parvo, the octagenarian publisher of Anerican F...n parvo, the octagenarian publisher of Anerican Farmer has long been cultivated by Marc Morano, who provides a constant irrigation of new drips to write the op-eds that fill the space between the silo ads.THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42469616888558776672012-10-15T08:37:42.559-04:002012-10-15T08:37:42.559-04:00"Unfortunately this means that things will ha..."Unfortunately this means that things will have to get a lot worse further down the road and much harder to solve."<br /><br />What hope. <br />Tell them the ice age just begun and there 's nothing humanity can do against it (well-known fact ice ages start with record heat and droughts, remember the thirties :) ). <br />This 'll work like pink elephants. Do NOT think of pink elephants. <br />cRR Kampenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07571285063752477448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-79248271096124413742012-10-15T08:22:26.424-04:002012-10-15T08:22:26.424-04:00"As Eli mentioned not so long ago it's no..."<i>As Eli mentioned not so long ago it's not that scientists are or are not lousy communicators (say that and the Rabett will lock you in a room with Richard Alley for example), but that journalists are lousy communicators. It's their fucking (emphasis added) job and they are screwing it up to a fare-thee-well. It ain't just climate either.</i>"<br /><br />Exactly. Times another 1.10.<br /><br />I was pondering this earlier today whilst listening to a radio host completely side stepping the point make by an energy expert about matters pertaining to renewable energy*, and especially the fact that increasing costs for electricity are largely due to provider companies shirking the cost of regular maintenance in the drive for maximum profit.<br /><br />It's the same everywhere. Journalists are often given the facts about a range of subjects, but their capacity for understanding, retaining and objectively representing these facts would put teflon to shame. All that matters is a controversy. In Australia even the public broadcaster is now deeply mired in the paradigm.<br /><br />In my book aiders and abetters of denialism are as bad as the denialists themselves. As <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2012/10/01/october-2012-open-thread/comment-page-1/#comment-128637" rel="nofollow">I said at Deltoid</a>:<br /><br />"<i>If only there was a mechanism to ensure that the stupid and the greedy suffered first, rather than the poor and the innocent.</i>"<br /><br />Which makes me ponder further... The most expedient (if somewhat controversial) solution to the Planck problem would be to not wait passively for the blockage to degenerate and wither away, but to take a plumber's snake to the obstruction. Future generations will wish that we had.<br /><br /><br />Bernard J. Hyphen-Anonymous XVII, Esq.<br /><br /><br />[* It may actually be of interest to some here, so I'll put up a linkie when the station uploads...]Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-19978115767148197692012-10-15T08:00:47.135-04:002012-10-15T08:00:47.135-04:00"The Interpretation of Dreams"
-- by Ho..."The Interpretation of Dreams"<br /> -- by Horatio Algeranon<br /><br />The journalist said<br />"It's plain to see<br />There is no actual reality"<br /><br />"Only dreams<br />Of Left and Right<br />Appearing in the black of night."<br /><br />"My job is not<br />'Truth' revelation,<br />But balanced dream interpretation."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-43941715502951554352012-10-15T02:07:07.299-04:002012-10-15T02:07:07.299-04:00I can only agree 110% with the Wabett. As another ...I can only agree 110% with the Wabett. As another example, if Eli had paid attention back in school during Finnish class, he might have followed from close up the flap between Finland and the Sov^WRussia about one Russian female living in Finland losing custody over her four children, likely for very valid reasons.<br /><br />http://yle.fi/uutiset/minister_misinformation_sours_finnish-russian_relations/6332132<br /><br />...and Russian liar^Wjournalists are making up the excuse that nobody from the Finnish side provided them with readily digested information in Russian! Lazy bastards.<br />Martin Vermeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04537045395760606324noreply@blogger.com