tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post6162222326370880803..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: In which it is shown how the NIPCC and Fred Singer omit, distort, and yes, flat out lie about sea level rise estimates.EliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-46479100624205801132010-05-03T17:04:36.398-04:002010-05-03T17:04:36.398-04:00Does dear birdy note that the research he/she refe...Does dear birdy note that the research he/she refers to is on <i>floating</i> ice? And that the quoted press release mentions the obvious fact that floating ice is already part of the volume of the oceans? That the minor surprise of the paper is that melting ocean ice contributes to sea level at all, albeit by a far from significant amount? And that the publications referred to in this post are concerned with:<br />*Thermal expansion of ocean water<br />*Greenland and Antarctic ice cap melt--i.e. land ice<br />*Glacial melt--again, land ice<br />More to the point, what are the odds that the source from which little birdy got this link--because I doubt birds monitor university press releases--consciously misinterpreted this press release for the purpose of misleading our feathered friends? Insert your own "fowl" pun here.Antiquated Toryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08727187247287268014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-46750554314933354862010-05-03T15:55:06.079-04:002010-05-03T15:55:06.079-04:00Another windy day here, saw this blowing across th...Another windy day here, saw this blowing across the road & thought a scientist might want to give it a quick read:)<br /><br />http://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/793/melting_icebergs_causing_sea_level_rise<br /><br />Makes sense to me, but then I am juat a stupid bird sittin on a mission. Flap on...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-90713662760328344042010-05-01T15:27:19.235-04:002010-05-01T15:27:19.235-04:00The ongoing rate of rise in recent centuries has b...<i>The ongoing rate of rise in recent centuries has been 18 cm per century...</i><br /><br />Current sea level rise is 32 cm per century. <br /><br />http://sealevel.colorado.edu<br /><br />I guess it was too much for them to let that little fact slip in, given that it makes Singer's estimates look stupid.Area Mannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-89007757634855532752010-04-25T09:33:18.095-04:002010-04-25T09:33:18.095-04:00You can get a "ballpark" estimate for se...You can get a "ballpark" estimate for sea level rise due to eroded sediment discharge by the world's rivers into the ocean by simply estimating how much water is displaced by the sediment and then assuming that this displaced water covers the ocean surface "evenly" (to a uniform depth). <br /><br />If you do that, you get an estimate of about 0.03mm per year, or only about 1% of the current measured yearly rise of 3.1 ± 0.7 mm per year.<br /><br />Of course, this involves simplifying assumptions, but it is very unlikely that they make any substantive difference to the conclusion: sediment discharge makes a relatively insignificant contribution to the measured yearly sea level rise.<br /><br />Global sediment discharge into world's oceans: ~19.7 billion metric tons per year (the larger of the two values referenced below)<br /><br />Total surface area of world's oceans: 360 million square km<br /><br />Average Density of "packed mud" (sediment): 1906 kg per cubic meter (about 1.9 times the density of water)<br /><br />Mass of 1 cubic meter of water = 1 metric ton (1000kg)<br /><br />Using the above information, we find that 19.7 billion metric tons of sediment discharged into the ocean (yearly) "displaces" about 10.4 billion cubic meters (10.4 cubic km) of water.<br /><br />If we assume that the surface area of the world's oceans is essentially unchanged* by the sea level rise and that the displaced water distributes itself evenly over the ocean surface (to uniform depth), that means that the sea level increases by <br /><br />10.4 km^3 / 360,000,000 km^2 ~= 0.03 mm per year <br /><br /><br />Since measured sea level rise is currently 3.1 ± 0.7 mm per year (1993-2003), the yearly rise due to sediment discharge is just 1/100 [1% ] of the yearly rise (just 4% of the quoted UNCERTAINTY in the yearly rise)<br /><br />For the 20th century as a whole, the range for average yearly sea level rise is between 0.8 and 3.3 mm/yr . So estimated rise due to sediment discharge would have been about 4% of the yearly rise over the twentieth century if one assumes the lower value.<br /><br />In other words, the sediment discharge really does not make a significant contribution to the measured yearly rise.<br /><br />This is undoubtedly why it is sometimes not even listed as a contribution.<br /><br /><br /><br />**Note: sea level rise actually increases the surface area a bit, but it makes mo real difference to the calculation here. And the fact that surface area actually increases means sea level rise due to sediment discharge is even <i>smaller</i> than was estimated above.<br /><br /><br /><br />References<br />wikipedia<br />"Current sea level rise has occurred at a mean rate of 1.8 mm per year for the past century, and more recently, during the satellite era of sea level measurement, at rates estimated near 2.8 ± 0.4 to 3.1 ± 0.7 mm per year (1993-2003). Current sea level rise is due significantly to global warming, which will increase sea level over the coming century and longer periods."<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_sea_level_rise<br /><br />"for the global earth surface the suspended sediment discharge after<br />G. V. Lopatin (6) is evaluated as 19700 million t per year."<br /><br />from "DISSOLVED MATTER DISCHARGE<br />AND MECHANICAL AND CHEMICAL EROSION<br />Prof. O.A. ALEKIN and Dr. L.V. BRAZHNJKOVA Leningrad, USSR,<br />Hydrometeorological Institute"<br />http://iahs.info/redbooks/a078/iahs_078_0035.pdf<br /><br /><br />"Asian rivers account for nearly 50 per cent of the total sediment load (13.5 billion tonnes per year) transported by the world’s rivers (UNEP, 1992)." <br />from "Marine and Coastal Environments"<br />http://www.rrcap.unep.org/apeo/Chp1g-marine.html<br /><br /><br />Density of materials<br />pure water: 1000kg per cubic meter<br />Mud, packed 1906 kg per cubic meter<br />http://www.simetric.co.uk/si_materials.htm<br /><br />from Ocean (wikipedia)<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean<br />The area of the World Ocean is 361×10^6 km^2Horatio Algeranonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12988805467080448954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-69558718273096810972010-04-24T15:38:22.691-04:002010-04-24T15:38:22.691-04:00After reading some, I have to admit Eli, the guy k...After reading some, I have to admit Eli, the guy knows, that he don't know all... I wonder what time-frame Giai uses, when making 'decisions' about mother nature? Oceans that are no more... wow, who wooda thunk it? This old bird has seen many a swale, silt in over the years, has something to do with gravity... Move'n on, buck, I'm going fishin...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-34940494217376994522010-04-23T19:28:52.676-04:002010-04-23T19:28:52.676-04:00Typo in the title - "In which in is shown...&...Typo in the title - "In which in is shown..."<br /><br />PedantimouseAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-66341713349371535862010-04-23T15:28:31.049-04:002010-04-23T15:28:31.049-04:00A good place to start might be James Titus, he mos...A good place to start might be James Titus, he mostly does shoreline erosion but should know if what you are looking for has been done<br /><br />http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/SLRChallenge.htmlEliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-86429767384767481202010-04-23T13:16:45.378-04:002010-04-23T13:16:45.378-04:00Just a quick note about the question dealing with ...Just a quick note about the question dealing with displacement... Has anyone modeled shoreline erosion and sediment movement into the depths, yet? It seems to me that erosion as a natural process is always filling the sea bottom of the worlds oceans. As the bottom fills, how much of the seas raising is due to sediment 'lifting'? Anyone?... As we enlarge our cities, where does our discharge end up? As the surface area of the seas continually increases, so does the erosion rate of increased shoreline, don't you agree? What is it please, I don't have that number at hand just now...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-39531900065078651082010-04-23T12:54:49.809-04:002010-04-23T12:54:49.809-04:00High Eli, I am not a seagull, but after you all in...High Eli, I am not a seagull, but after you all informed me that I had better start nesting in the top of a Redwood tree... the question about all the crap man has dumped into the oceans; you know, the lighters, oil, battle ships, plastic fishing nets, fiberglass fishing boats, jeeps, rock fill & lets not forget the 'dead zones', becalmed over vast stretches of the worlds oceans... how much water has been displaced over the last few hundred years do you think? I know it has to be greater than zero. Hazard a guess, or do we just get another trick with that lucky foot of yours? Gotta fly---Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-49090174784607198112010-04-22T20:57:30.166-04:002010-04-22T20:57:30.166-04:00As General Montgomery once said "Attack them ...As General Montgomery once said "Attack them like a <b>vicious rabbit!</b>David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-77477193020420675192010-04-22T20:41:04.318-04:002010-04-22T20:41:04.318-04:00If any bipartisan bunnies wish to hop to Jim Man...If any bipartisan bunnies wish to hop to Jim Manzi's defense , he is being gnawed on by zombies over at Planet Gore's brain dead parent publication:<br /><br />http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWQwN2EwOWFhODVlOWI5YjcwZTBhMDQ3MmMwZGRmOWQ=THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-59395054768658348332010-04-22T17:01:39.786-04:002010-04-22T17:01:39.786-04:00On the lighter side of sea rise, here's a cart...On the lighter side of sea rise, here's a <a href="http://mediumlarge.wordpress.com/2010/04/22/thursday-april-22-2010/" rel="nofollow">cartoon</a> for the rabbits.Antiquated Toryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08727187247287268014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-17970214713845114992010-04-22T12:03:03.852-04:002010-04-22T12:03:03.852-04:00Having read the complaint, Eli thinks this is more...Having read the complaint, Eli thinks this is more an effort to smoke the defendants out than to get a judgement. It will be amusing if this ever gets to the discovery stage.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-68601027116938210442010-04-22T11:34:51.334-04:002010-04-22T11:34:51.334-04:00Snow Bunny continuing the above:
throwing a lot of...Snow Bunny continuing the above:<br />throwing a lot of garbage, imo.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-44702084768024190462010-04-22T11:32:47.691-04:002010-04-22T11:32:47.691-04:00Snow Bunny says:
Speaking of suits, Andrew Weaver...Snow Bunny says:<br /><br />Speaking of suits, Andrew Weaver of the U of Victoria is going after a newspaper for erroneous articles.<br />http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2010/04/21/bc-andrew-weaver-national-post-lawsuit.html<br />also posted on DeSmogblog -- <br />James Hoggan is apparently going to sue also.<br /><br />I've no feel for how Canadian law handles defamation. In the U.S. you can get away withAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-91545932977045329182010-04-22T11:02:12.012-04:002010-04-22T11:02:12.012-04:00Speaking of predictions, Singer suggested the U.S....Speaking of predictions, Singer suggested the U.S. send a manned mission to Phoebus, a moon of Mars to check if it was built by aliens. A helpful suggestion for national security.<br /><br />I'm not making this up. Check the Washington Post archive, circa 1960.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-90443424866018118262010-04-22T10:58:08.975-04:002010-04-22T10:58:08.975-04:00Snow Bunny says:
the Lancaster suit is described ...Snow Bunny says:<br /><br />the Lancaster suit is described in "Climate Cover-Up" Hoggan and Littlemore.<br /><br />Way off topic but fun for those bunnies who like cats was an article by Justin Lancaster on a tool-using cat:<br />http://cats.about.com/od/behaviortraining/a/cattools.htmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-7852702653621764062010-04-22T10:51:39.365-04:002010-04-22T10:51:39.365-04:00The "how much" is not nearly as importan...The "how much" is not nearly as important as the fact that seal levels are indeed rising.<br /><br />...and it's well documented <a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_kfG8pUItVjU/S9BhnY7WLBI/AAAAAAAAAvU/wxkJUWE6vxM/s1600/Seallevel.jpg" rel="nofollow">eg, by NOAA</a><br /><br />Bunnies are not the only animals that <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2007/07/bunny-curve-kristen-byrnes-has-thrown.html" rel="nofollow">follow CO2</a>, you know.Horatio Algeranonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12988805467080448954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-89074865160926079842010-04-22T09:43:06.488-04:002010-04-22T09:43:06.488-04:00Talking about Singer always reminds me of this exc...Talking about Singer always reminds me of this exchance between Lancaster and Singer:<br /><br />[Singer] I would not like to be shouted at.<br /><br />[Lancaster] I apologize.<br /><br />[Singer] I hope you'll keep your voice down.<br /><br />[Lancaster] I don't like being sued.<br /><br />The <a href="http://home.att.net/~espi/S-F-Singer_Deposition.pdf" rel="nofollow">transcript</a> has lots of other jewels like that, btw. Details can be found on <a href="http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=S._Fred_Singer" rel="nofollow">Sourcewatch</a>.willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-53790386243617602402010-04-22T00:23:19.581-04:002010-04-22T00:23:19.581-04:00It is a cruel bunny who makes so free with the cli...It is a cruel bunny who makes so free with the clicks of others.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.com