tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post608382106218734778..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: The fox and the hedgehogEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47499412233133213742009-12-26T20:51:05.579-05:002009-12-26T20:51:05.579-05:002-5 C/2x that's about where it has been foreve...2-5 C/2x that's about where it has been forever. The Rasool and Schneider estimate only holds if you use the wrong CO2 forcing which they admitted in a footnote.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-63299840408979232702009-12-25T04:39:41.504-05:002009-12-25T04:39:41.504-05:00"Eli knows it too, and has been pointing out ..."Eli knows it too, and has been pointing out for years that the estimates of climate sensitivity have simply not moved much for over a hundred years."<br /><br /><a href="http://bartonpaullevenson.com/ClimateSensitivity.html" rel="nofollow">B.P. Levenson's list</a> shows considerable variation. <br /><br />Even if we do focus on values for the sensitivity similar to the current estimates, are the reasons for those values the same, 100 years ago, 50 years ago, 30 years ago?Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10768655514143252049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-79309281900311879322009-12-24T09:29:34.063-05:002009-12-24T09:29:34.063-05:00Hi Gavin,
Plass was NOT lucky. As a hedgehog he k...Hi Gavin,<br /><br />Plass was NOT lucky. As a hedgehog he knew the one important and real thing, that CO2 is the strongest forcing we know and it was growing because of our burning fossil fuels. It is the nature of problems with one major driver that some of the little things that obsess foxes go up and others go down, and in the end they balance leaving the big thing. Ask yourself how much estimates of climate sensitivity vary over the last 100 years, even over the last 50 when many of the things you call Plass out for not knowing were discovered.<br /><br />Now hedgehogs are not always right, witness Lindzen, who feels it in his bones that climate sensitivity is less than 1K for 2X CO2. He has been turning over every rock to find the majic stone. In the beginning it was a useful exercise as others have closed holes in the models showing why he was wrong, but now he has become a crank and there is no point in even listening to him.<br /><br />Aha! another post.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47682178211301736802009-12-24T06:30:11.688-05:002009-12-24T06:30:11.688-05:00I didn't say he was just lucky. But I'll p...I didn't say he was <i>just</i> lucky. But I'll put up an RC post soon and we can go over it in more detail.Gavinhttp://www.realclimate.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-20577678591722842002009-12-24T03:23:48.168-05:002009-12-24T03:23:48.168-05:00Does anyone dare to find out what Plass's poli...Does anyone dare to find out what Plass's politics were?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com