tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post5126398809290421236..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: EliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-39390897839467704142006-12-26T09:52:00.000-05:002006-12-26T09:52:00.000-05:00Yes, perhaps we will be surprised.
Sometimes thin...Yes, perhaps we will be surprised.<br /><br />Sometimes things <i>do</i> seem counterintuitive because we do not properly understand them.<br /><br />But logic based on what one knows about physical processes (in this case thermodynamics) can also take one a long way toward predicting how nature will behave under particular circumstances if those circumstances have not yet been satisfied but yet could be satisfied in the future. <br /><br />If something seems counterintuitive based upon everything one knows, one must at least explain why things do not behave in the way one expects.<br /><br />Too often we see the argument that "because it has not happened yet, it will not happen or at least is unlikely to happen." <br /><br />This is true only if it would violate physical law or if the necessary conditions are not likely to ever be met.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-1698851013851452762006-12-22T13:41:00.000-05:002006-12-22T13:41:00.000-05:00Maybe the behavior of ocean heat content will surp...Maybe the behavior of ocean heat content will surprise us. Maybe it already has.stevesadlovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00963662049314546494noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-21486402765251564792006-12-22T11:13:00.000-05:002006-12-22T11:13:00.000-05:00one thing about the gw tropical cyclone debate tha...one thing about the gw tropical cyclone debate that puzzles me is the suggestion by some that there is no relationship between hurricane frequency and warmer ocean temperatures.<br />this seems counterintuitive, given that there does seem to be a minimum temperature at which hurricanes develop.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclogenesis#Warm_waters.2C_instability.2C_and_mid-level_moisture<br /><br />i can understand that if the minimum temperature condition were already being met in every place where the other conditions necessary for hurricane formation are found, then an increase in temperature (that occurred above this minimum) would not increase the likelihood of formation.<br /><br />but it is far from clear that this is the case. presumably, as ocean temperatures increase, one starts to get the minimum temp condition in regions of the ocean that previously fell below the minimum. if the total area of ocean meeting the min temp condition increases, presumably the probability of a hurricane starting also increases.<br /><br />the fact that no such increase in frequency has occurred to date does not mean that it will not occur in the future. <br /><br />it is conceivable, at least, that there may be ocean regions 'almost ripe' for hurricane formation that are close to (but still below) the min temp. condition.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42900871514030624592006-12-22T09:10:00.000-05:002006-12-22T09:10:00.000-05:00I think Eli gets "wound up" for the same reason th...I think Eli gets "wound up" for the same reason that other scientists do.<br /><br />At some point, one gets tired of the BS coming from the political scientists and others who 1) have no clue what they are talking about or 2) have a clue but knowingly misrepresent through cherry picking.<br /><br />Political scientists should stick with what they know. I forget what that is, but there must be something -- and they should stick with it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-30086569719794781082006-12-22T04:21:00.000-05:002006-12-22T04:21:00.000-05:00So will global warming increase or decreae wind sh...So will global warming increase or decreae wind shear?C W Mageehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09706100504739548720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-73779165417138894042006-12-22T02:38:00.000-05:002006-12-22T02:38:00.000-05:00Wow - you really feel strongly about this subject ...Wow - you really feel strongly about this subject don't you? Take it easy - no need to get all wound up...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com