tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post4880508368839019802..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Hoisted by my own petardEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-12646393768848018912017-07-16T21:38:58.198-04:002017-07-16T21:38:58.198-04:00"Hoisted by my own petard"
Brian, be th..."Hoisted by my own petard"<br /><br />Brian, be thankful the Singularity is off to a such a slow start.THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47581095307415883592017-07-06T15:59:44.729-04:002017-07-06T15:59:44.729-04:00It's very unlikely considering the ongoing res...It's very unlikely considering the ongoing research into better batteries that Lithium supply is going to be a limiting factor.<br /><br />Apparently aluminium/air is one potential technology and its hard to imagine is running out of either of its primary components.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07784872872859319666noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-27882575278581657482017-07-06T13:33:39.696-04:002017-07-06T13:33:39.696-04:00Shorter Fernando: Hydrogen cars (and tanks) might...Shorter Fernando: Hydrogen cars (and tanks) might make very effective <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petard" rel="nofollow">petards.</a>CapitalistImperialistPighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17523405806602731435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-37091440020256213632017-07-06T12:24:15.778-04:002017-07-06T12:24:15.778-04:00The UST regs were tightened in 2015 plus skyrocket...The UST regs were tightened in 2015 plus skyrocketing Bay Area commercial property values.<br />https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-07/documents/regs2015-crosswalk.pdfHowardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01048255624944551506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-9977269443550388402017-07-06T10:37:55.546-04:002017-07-06T10:37:55.546-04:00Hydrogen is a bitch to contain. The molecule is ve...Hydrogen is a bitch to contain. The molecule is very small, gets through seals, enbrittles metals, and it's incredibly dangerous. It's so dangerous we keep hydrogen plants set aside from other equipment by several hundred meters, and the piping has special attention. <br /><br />The way the market is evolving, you will see less stations, tied to car wash, laundry, convenience stores, supermarkets, etc. oil companies don't make money in that business, entry is too easy, so most stations are franchises. What will drive volume down eventually (it is growing now) will be price, because we are running out of oil. <br /><br />This issue gets tangled with a lot of disinformation. For example, some like to brag the USA will be a world oil superpower, but that's not really true. You will read USA "shales" compete below $50 per barrel, but that's not true. The highest quality zone, the Wolfcamp/Spraberry in Texas, can't fly unless prices are at the $55-65 range. The Bakken is now starting to show its age, and the Eagle Ford also seems to require much higher prices. <br /><br />So the trick is to visualize increasing oil prices, decreasing battery prices - until they stop falling because demand pushes up the cost of lithium. <br /><br />Many of you tend to think of this as a USA / Europe world. I would use Jamaica and Pakistan as case studies. Fernando Leanmehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16085680730729620836noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-83806708824857711722017-07-05T10:02:27.947-04:002017-07-05T10:02:27.947-04:00Fregus Brown, here's something for you to read...Fregus Brown, here's something for you to read:<br /><br />http://www.caranddriver.com/columns/the-case-for-nuke-cars-its-called-hydrogenMike Dombroskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14722885486530482844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-25894551607988062512017-07-05T07:03:52.801-04:002017-07-05T07:03:52.801-04:00Small side point: Yes, H and O mixed make a flamma...Small side point: Yes, H and O mixed make a flammable combination. As do gas fumes and O. Except the H floats up and off, whereas the gas fumes hang around human eye level.<br />Safety is always just a matter of engineering. Once upon a time, steam train boilers exploded occasionally.<br />It's not som much technolust, as reasons to be cheerful. Doom is a computer game, not a historical inevitability.The Old Man is backhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299949591915788184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-70242145254098838132017-07-04T19:40:48.693-04:002017-07-04T19:40:48.693-04:00Green corrridors are good, where possible, but wo...Green corrridors are good, where possible, but worldwide , far more of the power will come from fossil than hydro , and at this stage of the game , storing hydrogen in a car makes lithium batteries look cheap, <br /><br />But I still share Fergus technolust--forget Teslas --the sportiest successor to the mighty Duesenberg would be a hydrogen powered Hindenburg Convertible- just keep the top down, and the explosion risk will vanish into thin air.THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-6192648994972987612017-07-04T12:43:17.315-04:002017-07-04T12:43:17.315-04:00Good comments. I reacted in the post with some upd...Good comments. I reacted in the post with some updates.Brian Schmidthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06172685194686202391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-15068222300448477782017-07-04T06:24:59.669-04:002017-07-04T06:24:59.669-04:00I'm in shock. Fernando has managed to make som...I'm in shock. Fernando has managed to make some sense.<br />Two words: Green corridor. <br />It runs from Munich in Germany to Modena in Italy.<br />Within a few years it will have a charging station and a hydrogen refill station every 15km (roughly 10 miles).<br />The process began around 10 years ago and is ongoing.<br />The H2 is generated from 'waste' capacity, for example, the potential generation from hydro which is not being used because the grid doesn't need it -therefore, new infrastructure needs are limited, it's mainly the compressors and refuelling stations which are costs.<br />Bolzano in Italy already runs a fleet of H2 public buses and taxis in this way. AFAIK there are other European and Far-Eastern cities with similar initiatives (Uhlsan, Korea, the one in Japan...).<br />Even in North Yorkshire, some of our public buses are no longer powered by gasoline, but by gas (the other sort).<br />The change is coming ever closer. Just look around.The Old Man is backhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06299949591915788184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-79917274337095929502017-07-03T17:45:26.778-04:002017-07-03T17:45:26.778-04:00Hey look, their building a gas station over here a...Hey look, their building a gas station over here and another one over there. Therefore, anecdotally I win. :(Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-77773942944196475232017-07-03T16:37:32.545-04:002017-07-03T16:37:32.545-04:00And a lot of times you have to replace the car fir...And a lot of times you have to replace the car firstEliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-37768583023758259242017-07-03T16:35:48.383-04:002017-07-03T16:35:48.383-04:00Four, and lower end of four at that https://www.qu...Four, and lower end of four at that https://www.quora.com/How-much-does-it-cost-to-replace-a-Prius-batteryEliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-26028951259665535492017-07-03T16:33:09.612-04:002017-07-03T16:33:09.612-04:00When in the virtuous cycle of recharging end with ...When in the virtuous cycle of recharging end with your being presented with a five or six figure bill for a new lithium battery pack,?<br /><br />And how many tonnes of CO2 will have gone into producing it ?THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-22615894483850456792017-07-03T10:34:33.321-04:002017-07-03T10:34:33.321-04:00There really ought to be a rule against bringing a...There really ought to be a rule against bringing a petard to a gas station.CapitalistImperialistPighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17523405806602731435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-9549763001533609842017-07-03T10:07:40.527-04:002017-07-03T10:07:40.527-04:00I suspect that the revolution in electric vehicles...I suspect that the revolution in electric vehicles will include on board charging powered by hydrocarbon fuels. Here's the best post I've seen about what might be coming:<br /><br />https://judithcurry.com/2016/11/02/vehicular-decarbonisation-two-new-technologies-to-watch/Mike Dombroskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14722885486530482844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-56772234318848945072017-07-03T05:34:24.491-04:002017-07-03T05:34:24.491-04:00Gasoline retail has been a very competitive busine...Gasoline retail has been a very competitive business for 40 years. Large refiners sell their bulk product to whoever has cash and the right permits, which means entry into the business is fairly easy, almost as easy as opening a convenience store chain or mini market. About 12 years ago I had a retail subsidiary request the use of the conference room assigned to my team, and overheard about two hours of discussions about their ongoing business. The agenda points were about a new campaign to introduce different potato chips, the statistics about bathroom cleanliness, the change of coffe supplier, the car wash attendant salary scale, and topics which had absolutely nothing to do with gasoline sales. <br /><br />The response has been to increase volume per station and broaden the offer to include a laundry, and a fast food restaurant. I suspect they will be very keen on offering battery charging, because that's going to keep customers buying junk food and playing one armed bandits. And that's where the real profits will be. Fernando Leanmehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16085680730729620836noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-43036869013640578772017-07-03T02:58:19.588-04:002017-07-03T02:58:19.588-04:00The number of gas stations here in Pullman, Washin...The number of gas stations here in Pullman, Washington, has decreased to just 6 despite a more than doubling of the population. Possibly better gas milage explains it as there are very few electric and hybrid vehicles to be seen. David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15914145623997712113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-28434151211820287482017-07-03T01:46:20.250-04:002017-07-03T01:46:20.250-04:00I agree with your projection for the future, but m...I agree with your projection for the future, but my understanding is that current gas station closings are being driven by high real estate prices - you can make more money selling out to a coffee shop than by continuing to sell gas. You can predict the sort of places where this effect is strong and where it is weak ... so gas stations will disappear from the denser areas first. One example: https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/03/23/gas-stations-disappearing-across-massachusetts/YkjsrPegBEFu4SMBaEaL2M/story.html<br />That story doesn't go into much detail - I suspect that increasing fuel economy in gas powered cars has also contributed to a weakness in the sector. Mass adoption of electric cars will hit like a landslide.GFWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09383010122581526532noreply@blogger.com