tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post4142076208991103823..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Precautionary principle possibilitiesEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-52803763922522202572013-01-17T16:53:29.722-05:002013-01-17T16:53:29.722-05:00Lovely post. Wonder full blog. I’d like some advi...Lovely post. Wonder full blog. I’d like some advice too.<br />I read and really impressed form your topic about . It's very comprehensive and informative and helpful for us. I was looking information about <a href="http://www.luisfandos.com/dr-luis-fandos/" rel="nofollow">Dr. Luis Fandos</a>, I am very happy to read it.<br /><br />Thanks for sharing.....<br />J D Chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10310758920991860800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-32202064085705790922013-01-07T08:30:46.123-05:002013-01-07T08:30:46.123-05:00The ability to create GMOs was a revolutionary cha...The ability to create GMOs was a revolutionary change in the way science and industry relates to life.<br /><br />It is very much an ongoing revolution. Much like computing, it started with big and expensive technology and is changing to become something within the range of any half decent university when dealing with plants, and the within the range of the hobbyist when it comes to bacteria.<br /><br />I wonder how strong the stomachs of the laissez faire will prove to be when the produce is not from the giant corporations but obscure laboratories in lesser known countries.<br /><br />I will confess that it is the unrealised potential that has most botthered me not the current range of products.<br /><br />I have no reason to suspect that this latter group will not be just as capable or otherwise as the current outfits. I think that the same considerations should be given to both.<br /><br />I question whether we already have the safeguards in place to meet the challanges that are coming. Trying to retrofit new regulations at a later date will look like protectionism.<br /><br />AlexAlexander Harveynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-68500081865991529762013-01-06T12:04:13.652-05:002013-01-06T12:04:13.652-05:00Those who actually read the full piece (particular...Those who actually read the <a href="http://www.campaignforrealfarming.org/2012/12/gmos-seven-obvious-questions-in-search-of-straightforward-answers/" rel="nofollow">full piece</a> (particularly the text of the question 4 section) that Stoat has quoted (quotemined?) from may come away with a slightly different take on the matter.<br /><br />Taken in the context of the entire section, the word "sure" in the question "Can we really be sure that GM crops are safe — for our fellow creatures in the environment at large; or for consumers – whether livestock or people?" seems to be closer in meaning to "very confident" than to "absolutely certain"<br /><br />That use of the word ("highly confident") would hardly be surprising, since that is actually the common use for "sure".<br /><br />In the last part of that same section, the author even refers to the fact that "all technologies carry risks"<br /><br /><i> "though, the GM advocates could reasonably retreat from their position of absolute confidence and simply point out that all technologies carry risks, and many of those risks cannot be known in advance, and things have often gone wrong in unexpected ways but still, in the long run, the technologies were worthwhile. After all, no-one knew about metal-fatigue until air-liners started to break up – but most people surely would agree that mass air-travel is a good thing, and that the risk was worth taking (tragic though it was for the crash victims). The earliest steam locomotives kept blowing up and killing people – but who, now, would want a world without trains?<br /><br />So the GM advocates might admit that there could perhaps be risks associated with GM; but still they might reasonably suggest that the drawbacks are far outweighed by the benefits."</i><br /><br />Stoat essentially claims that the question posed about whether risks outweigh benefits is irrelevant (because the author has already decided no risk is acceptable and hence the question of weighing risks is disingenuous, in Stoat's view), but the last section explicitly acknowledges that "all technologies carry risk" and hence consideration of the weights actually IS relevant.<br /><br />In my opinion, Stoat has done a very poor job of making his case here (to be kind)<br /><br />And to use his post as "evidence" for category #1 is simply illadvised.<br /><br />~@:><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-299223596541233272013-01-06T10:49:01.304-05:002013-01-06T10:49:01.304-05:00On science fiction, is there an alternate-history ...On science fiction, is there an alternate-history scenario for coal-powered steam-engine industrialization at a pace that would not have exceeded the planet's ability to recycle CO2 from the air? I can think of several factors that might have introduced interesting numbers, like<br />-- an early alternative source of high grade oil (leaving whale stocks high and iron fertilization of plankton at its pre-human rate; maybe enough whales coughing up enough ambergris to make a business out of just following them and upsetting their stomachs in a sustainable way ....)Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-26113651783852998242013-01-06T10:47:30.705-05:002013-01-06T10:47:30.705-05:00kT said...
There wasn't even evidence
of a pro...<i>kT said...<br />There wasn't even evidence<br />of a problem in 1896 ...</i><br /><br />I'm pretty sure I didn't say that, but the post was deleted over a conflict of style versus substance. If you read the thread back and check for <i>italics</i> you will see I was quoting the fossil fuel apologist - Robert, some guy on the internet. I was simply throwing out some well known early 70's reviews of the problem by some of the principles. By 1980 the snow line recession in the mid to upper plains was well recognized by many of the locals, particularly the snowmobilers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42548464915956472552013-01-06T10:12:41.579-05:002013-01-06T10:12:41.579-05:00Ok, on style. Given the energy imbalance that pres...Ok, on style. Given the energy imbalance that presently exists - vis-à-vis the elevated carbon dioxide of the atmosphere that has existed FOR SOME TIME NOW, you are not going to be able to HIDE that large amount of energy for any length of time. When the ocean does bite you, and I'm sure that will be real soon now, it's going to make my bite look pretty damn mild. Now you bunnies can make a choice, do you want me to bite you occasionally with harsh words? Or do you want the ocean heat to bite? This has been a well known problem for some time now, and nobody has really acknowledged how severe a itsy bitsy teeny little energy balance can be integrated over the entire surface of the earth and left unattended for oh, several decades now by my counting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-40543222432656373672013-01-06T00:24:06.498-05:002013-01-06T00:24:06.498-05:00kT, I deleted your comment that had an obscenity d...kT, I deleted your comment that had an obscenity directed at a fellow commenter. I second what Eli said about stilettos.Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09301230860904555513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-935106597020023872013-01-05T21:14:08.937-05:002013-01-05T21:14:08.937-05:00"Anti- and pro-GMO forces argue for positions...<i>"Anti- and pro-GMO forces argue for positions 1 and 2 although they're usually vague about it, as a clear description of their perspective doesn't help them win."</i><br /><br />So, in "vague" cases (which I would guess to actually be a fairly large fraction of all cases) how do you decide who falls into what categories?<br /><br />How can you be certain that their "vagueness" is not actually an indication that they have many sincere questions about GMOs (eg, about the reliability of tests done by GMO companies) and possibly quite valid concerns?<br /><br /><br />There is, to be sure, a lot of straw in the background on that Campaign for Real Farming site that Stoat links to, but is Stoat's quotation of a single article (and selected parts at that) really evidence of "lots of strawpeople" who fall into category #1?<br /><br />Is it really even productive to categorize people in this way, particularly when their positions may be "vague" (purposely or otherwise) and thus impossible to really be certain about?<br /><br />It seems a little too convenient to simply claim people are being vague purposely because "a clear description of their perspective doesn't help them win. " <br /><br />Isn't it best to actually address the (quite possibly legitimate) concerns people have -- ie try to answer ALL their questions and not just the ones you (or Stoat) have decided place them in category 1,2,3, dismissing the rest of the questions if the individual or group is deemed to fall into category 1 or 2, since those questions are clearly disingenuous, anyway (merely meant to add "vagueness" to the stance on GMOs) <br /><br />~@:><br /><br />Personally, I think the best way of dealing with the public health issue is to label all GMO foods and let people decide for themselves (for whatever reason) whether they want to eat them and feed them to their families. of course, that does not address all the potential problems, but at least it gives people some choice in the matter. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-24912879858130226212013-01-05T20:01:43.384-05:002013-01-05T20:01:43.384-05:00> kT said...
> There wasn't even evid...> kT said...<br />> There wasn't even evidence <br />> of a problem in 1896 ...<br /><br />kT should read <a href="http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm#S1" rel="nofollow"> history</a><br />not neglecting the footnotes:<br /><br /><a name="N_2_" rel="nofollow">2. </a> <a href="http://www.aip.org/history/climate/bib.htm#918" rel="nofollow">Högbom (1894)</a> ; the <br /> essentials are quoted by <a href="http://www.aip.org/history/climate/bib.htm#7" rel="nofollow">Arrhenius (1896)</a>, pp. <br /> 269-73; see also <a href="http://www.aip.org/history/climate/bib.htm#1406" rel="nofollow">Berner (1995)</a>; for further <br /> background, see <a href="http://www.aip.org/history/climate/bib.htm#1244" rel="nofollow">Arrhenius (1997)</a>.Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-49615126192238093442013-01-05T19:55:14.730-05:002013-01-05T19:55:14.730-05:00From stratospheric ozone to climate change: histor...<a href="http://francestanford.stanford.edu/sites/francestanford.stanford.edu/files/Megie.pdf" rel="nofollow">From stratospheric ozone to climate change: historical perspective on precaution and scientific responsibility</a> (PDF)<br /><br /><br />Science and Engineering Ethics<br />2006, Volume 12, Issue 4, pp 596-606 <br /><br />"... Stringent regulations were adopted when large scientific uncertainty existed, and the environmental problem would have been prevented or more rapidly mitigated, at relatively modest incremental price, but for a time delay before more rigorous Precautionary measures were implemented. Will history repeat itself in the case of climate change?"Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-43797164353064969942013-01-05T19:55:10.701-05:002013-01-05T19:55:10.701-05:00Brian: "If my points 1 and 2 are strawmen, th...Brian: "If my points 1 and 2 are strawmen, then there are lots of strawpeople out there using variations of 1 and 2 to advance their position. For 1, see Stoat's critique of anti-GMOers."<br /><br />I don't understand your point. Here's a sentence that Stoat quotes in his critique. The sentence is written by the anti-GMOers:<br /><br />"All of the philosophy of science over the past 80 years or so (at least since Kurt Goedel and Karl Popper) has been telling us that science does not, and cannot, deal in certainties."<br /><br />So the anti-GMOers have explicitly rejected the idea of absolute proof one way or the other. I have no idea why you're trying to hang it on them. They may very well have written that sentence on the road towards rejecting what you think is adequate evidence that would allow GMOs under a reasonable precautionary principle, but that's not how your original characterization goes.Rich Puchalskyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13565210317964576866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-89903275168492810522013-01-05T19:36:16.521-05:002013-01-05T19:36:16.521-05:00If the bunnies are going to be nasty, at least som...If the bunnies are going to be nasty, at least some style. Stilettos, not broadswords.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-77925675055181312302013-01-05T18:58:21.651-05:002013-01-05T18:58:21.651-05:00"No, Robert, you're just yet another fat ..."No, Robert, you're just yet another fat stupid human..."<br /><br />OK, I was sorta kidding about seeing your therapist but now you've shown my concern was legitimate. Nothing I said warrants the rant that follows the above. <br /><br />Please, go see a shrink; you're nuts. Or a troll. Either way, you're not worth getting my blood pressure up over. Have a nice life, such as it is. <br /><br />Robert MurphyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-38862986839929424982013-01-05T18:21:18.187-05:002013-01-05T18:21:18.187-05:00We knew it was rising but there was real uncertain...<i>We knew it was rising but there was real uncertainty as to whether it was enough to offset rising aerosols, or if it was going to be offset by natural forcings. And you're already talking about the 1960's, though there was still no consensus about whether it was going to warm or cool until the mid 70's.</i><br /><br />Only in your feverish and pathetic excuse of an innumerate mind, Robert. Keeling published in 1970 and Sawyer published in 1972. There are a whole host of publications in that time period and all of them more or less agree that things will be changing by 2000 at the latest. By 1975 it was more than convincing by everyone credible in the this new field.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-48754798817087503582013-01-05T18:08:37.215-05:002013-01-05T18:08:37.215-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-20533413396607562052013-01-05T17:44:33.301-05:002013-01-05T17:44:33.301-05:00"Right, but we knew it was rising precipitous..."Right, but we knew it was rising precipitously even in the early sixties it was taught in post sputnik elementary schools, and we even knew what the result would be."<br /><br />We knew it was rising but there was real uncertainty as to whether it was enough to offset rising aerosols, or if it was going to be offset by natural forcings. And you're already talking about the 1960's, though there was still no consensus about whether it was going to warm or cool until the mid 70's. My original post was in response to this, at any rate:<br /><br />"The problems with global warming were known, in broad principle, back to 1896 / Arrhenius."<br /><br />That's simply untrue. The problems were not known then, even in broad principle. Certainly not in any way that would warrant immediate action. Position one is as wrong as position two. <br /><br />"Now I have been IN YOUR FACE for a while, but I have backed off a lot.<br /><br />That's gonna change once again."<br /><br />That's your problem, not mine. I'm not your therapist. <br /><br />Robert MurphyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-13237283424377588252013-01-05T17:41:29.837-05:002013-01-05T17:41:29.837-05:00That's not fair. Keith Kloor is always telling...That's not fair. Keith Kloor is always telling he's the middle ground, detached, objective observer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-1740228591325214102013-01-05T17:26:59.793-05:002013-01-05T17:26:59.793-05:00There wasn't even evidence of a problem in 189...<i>There wasn't even evidence of a problem in 1896 let alone cause for action. We simply had no idea if CO2 was rising, and if it was if that was even a bad thing or a good thing.</i><br /><br />Right, but we knew it was rising precipitously even in the early sixties it was taught in post sputnik elementary schools, and we even knew what the result would be. We knew it in 1980 when the actual abnormal winters started showing up, we knew it again in 1988 when the abnormal summer drought showed up, and by that point we even knew average global temperature was rising, and we knew it again in the late nineties when satellite sea level records began to show acceleration of sea level rise above the tide guage records. Nothing happened then and nothing is happening now on the policy front, even now when this thing is literally IN YOUR FACE!<br /><br />Now I have been IN YOUR FACE for a while, but I have backed off a lot.<br /><br />That's gonna change once again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-4922179418872253822013-01-05T17:13:51.053-05:002013-01-05T17:13:51.053-05:00If my points 1 and 2 are strawmen, then there are ...If my points 1 and 2 are strawmen, then there are lots of strawpeople out there using variations of 1 and 2 to advance their position. For 1, see Stoat's critique of anti-GMOers. For 2, see the standard industry claim that the burden of proof, usually absolute proof, lies on the other side for any particular issue before regulation is needed.Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09301230860904555513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-27571688077990190652013-01-05T15:37:13.795-05:002013-01-05T15:37:13.795-05:00"No, you've got the precautionary princip..."No, you've got the precautionary principle backwards, there."<br /><br />Sorry, without knowing if we were even increasing CO2 levels, it would have been wrong to say that we were causing global warming. Regulations to curb/halt CO2 emissions would have been more than premature, they would have been immoral. You can't use the info you have now and pretend we knew it then. <br /><br />"The "you've got to show piles of bodies before any regulation can be considered"... "<br /><br />Completely different situation. There wasn't even evidence of a problem in 1896 let alone cause for action. We simply had no idea if CO2 was rising, and if it was if that was even a bad thing or a good thing. <br />Again, you to go by what was known at the time, not by what was latter discovered. You can't act on info you don't have and couldn't have had. <br /><br />Robert MurphyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-56982035516605540342013-01-05T15:23:36.206-05:002013-01-05T15:23:36.206-05:00> alternative history
Don't miss Crutzen...> alternative history<br />Don't miss Crutzen's Nobel Prize speech, where he raises<br /><br />"... the nightmarish thought that if the chemical industry had developed organobromine compounds instead of the CFCs ... then without any preparedness, we would have been faced with a catastrophic ozone hole everywhere and at all seasons during the 1970s, probably before the atmosphe- ric chemists had developed the necessary knowledge to identify the problem and the appropriate techniques for the necessary critical measurements. Noting that nobody had given any thought to the atmospheric consequences of the release of Cl or Br before 1974, I can only conclude that mankind has been extremely lucky, that Cl activation can only occur under very special circumstances. This shows that we should always be on our guard for the potential consequences of the release of new products into the environment. Continued surveillance of the composition of the stratosphere, therefore, remains a matter of high priority for many years ahead."<br /><br />Chlorine was a little bit cheaper and more available than bromine when the chemistry of the stable fluorocarbons was being commercialized, so they went with chlorine compounds as a market decision. Just lucky.Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-9933348836865193282013-01-05T15:17:44.819-05:002013-01-05T15:17:44.819-05:00> Anonymous ...
> you have to show
No, you&...> Anonymous ...<br />> you have to show<br /><br />No, you've got the precautionary principle backwards, there. The problem was anticipated; the rate of change was drastically underestimated. <br /><br />The "you've got to show piles of bodies before any regulation can be considered" -- the standard approach to public health issues -- got us where we are now.<br /><br />The tobacco companies, by the way, have much <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=chicago+tribune+flame+retardant" rel="nofollow">responsibility</a> for the estrogen mimic problem, which is part of the early puberty problem among other things. Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-87523538936346246772013-01-05T14:51:47.599-05:002013-01-05T14:51:47.599-05:00"The problems with global warming were known,..."The problems with global warming were known, in broad principle, back to 1896 / Arrhenius."<br /><br />Much too broad to be helpful at the time. There was no way to know then if the CO2 we were releasing was even accumulating in the atmosphere. Natural sinks might have been taking in all of our emissions for all we knew. It wasn't really until after we had a much better record of CO2 levels and their change over time that we could assert that we were indeed altering the atmosphere. That didn't happen until the 1960's really. It's not enough to show that changing CO2 levels can cause temperature changes; you have to show that CO2 levels are changing first, and that we're the reason. In 1896 it wasn't possible to say either; from the 1960's and beyond it was. <br /><br />Robert MurphyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-74962045471974768512013-01-05T14:48:45.143-05:002013-01-05T14:48:45.143-05:00I would bet that there are probably a lot of peopl...I would bet that there are probably a lot of people who question GMOs not because they require "absolute proof" of safety (that also seems like a strawman to me, whether intended as such or not) but because they simply don't trust the assurances coming out of the companies that produce them and stand to profit from them.<br /><br />Or even the assurances of the federal government (when testing is performed by the companies with supposed "government oversight")<br /><br />If the track record of the tobacco industry (with smoking), pesticide industry (with DDT) and pharmaceutical industry (with Fen Phen) are an indication, I'm not sure the fairly widespread skepticism about GMOs isn't completely warranted -- and actually wise.<br /><br />It's not simply a matter of insufficient testing, but, rather, trusting the validity of the tests that <i>have</i> been done.<br /><br />It's too bad that people now distrust federal agencies like FDA (eg, over Fen Phen) to protect them, but once you lose the public trust, it's hard to regain it. Trust has to be earned.<br /><br />And people certainly have very good reason to distrust the companies that stand to benefit -- because they have made a habit of telling at least 2 lies before they get up every morning (just to keep in practice)<br /><br />~@:><br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-68808464680912363812013-01-05T14:13:49.917-05:002013-01-05T14:13:49.917-05:00I can think of two past experiences that may suppo...I can think of two past experiences that may support caution in supporting GMO salmon. One is the introduction of triploid grass carp into the U.S. for aquatic vegetation control. I worked with the biologists who lead the studies that determined normal grass carp couldn't reproduce in N.A. because of the nature of our rivers, flooding regimes, etc. This was proved incorrect over time (disasterously). Thus the move to triploid carp. But the triploid process wasn't fool proof and so again more disaster (the extirpation of native aquatic plants where the carp were introduced).<br /><br />The second incident is the highly effective use of sterilized male screw flies released in S. Texas to mate with and crush the popluations of this pest. It was completely effective.<br /><br />Any reproductively capable GMO salmon resulting from farming efforts could be disasterous for wild salmon. And realize that other companies will retool the GM process and will surely ask for a receive permission to farm these salmon in areas where wild fish live. Also, whether reproductive or not, escaped GMO salmon that try to mate with native Atlantic salmon will reduce their already precariously low population.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com