tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post2847178814168354840..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Compare and ContrastEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-4693539226957140752014-05-06T15:28:57.548-04:002014-05-06T15:28:57.548-04:00If "happy" means satisfied that Eli'...If "happy" means satisfied that Eli's claim that "the decline <i>stopped</i> about 1990" is based on sound statistical analysis (of trend and associated error), the answer is "no."<br /><br />That statistics are uninteresting to some does not mean they are unimportant.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-79868713459643027342014-05-05T16:06:25.859-04:002014-05-05T16:06:25.859-04:00So Eli took the average and it ended up in the sam...So Eli took the average and it ended up in the same place. Happy now?<br /><br />If you want to look at some global temperature series, well, the rate of increase has slowed over the past 10-15 years. Has it stopped. No.<br /><br />Why? Same question. It's not the statistics that is interesting in both cases but the reasons. Harold suggested one for tornado deaths per million, but clearly that is not the case.<br /><br />Have we hit the minimum for tornado deaths? Maybe, worse, maybe because of other factors than the climate or weather. <br /><br />Remember there were over 500 deaths in 2011 when some big ones hit populated areas. Can this be helped by beefing up building codes, requiring safe rooms etc? Interesting question with important implications.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-33010643394694985602014-05-05T12:26:01.012-04:002014-05-05T12:26:01.012-04:00TLE: "I'm empathetic enough to pull their...<a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2014/04/compare-and-contrast.html?showComment=1399214502956#c3494495970751502240" rel="nofollow">TLE</a>: "I'm empathetic enough to pull their asses out of the fire if I can. And I have a long and noble history of doing just that, something I don't plan to stop doing in the near future."<br /><br /><a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2014/04/compare-and-contrast.html?showComment=1399231843771#c2830478442795336327" rel="nofollow">TLE</a>: "Get over yourself."<br /><br />Thomas, with respect: when you're in command of yourself, your comments are often worth reading. When you're riled to the point of just venting your spleen, they're not.Mal Adaptedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06123525780458234978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-3506703316534523212014-05-05T10:28:29.924-04:002014-05-05T10:28:29.924-04:00TLE: " I've moved beyond human,..."
...TLE: " I've moved beyond human,..."<br /><br />Sheldon, that you?a_ray_in_dilbert_spacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-43281421811778203782014-05-05T09:27:49.702-04:002014-05-05T09:27:49.702-04:00Columbus also thought he had reached the Indies.
...Columbus also thought he had reached the Indies.<br /><br />Here's an idea: modify Eli's claim slightly and post it over at WUWT or Judy's<br /><br />"Christopher Monckton [Willis Eschenbach, Anthony Watts, Judith Curry, etc] has drawn the red line in by eye, but what is clear is that the increase stopped about 1998,"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-8829035502249037642014-05-04T23:11:09.465-04:002014-05-04T23:11:09.465-04:00Since 1990 (and eliminating the huge 2011 outlier)...Since 1990 (and eliminating the huge 2011 outlier), the average is right on the line Eli drew. <br /><br />Eli has been drawing lines thru data since before Columbus. EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-13161932402683958842014-05-04T16:08:21.634-04:002014-05-04T16:08:21.634-04:00"Eli has drawn the red line in by eye, but wh..."Eli has drawn the red line in by eye, but what is clear is that the decline stopped about 1990,"<br /><br />What's the "standard eyeball error" on that?<br /><br />The only thing clear to me is that WUWT has no monopoly on eyeball stats.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-28304784427953363272014-05-04T15:30:43.771-04:002014-05-04T15:30:43.771-04:00What about you?
I'm a mammal with a limited a...<i>What about you?</i><br /><br />I'm a mammal with a limited amount of time, glued to the surface of a terrestrial planet with a molten core by the tremendous force of gravity. I couldn't care less about property - yours, mine or anybody else's. Everyone's fate is the same, human or otherwise. Does that give you a better idea of 'beyond human'? Get over yourself.<br /><br />You are not even king of yourself.Thomas Lee Elifritzhttp://cosmic.lifeform.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-70491761257274891322014-05-04T13:16:23.671-04:002014-05-04T13:16:23.671-04:00TLE - I've moved beyond human...
LOLTLE - <i>I've moved beyond human...</i><br /><br />LOL<br /><br />Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-6777440345495214692014-05-04T12:36:04.321-04:002014-05-04T12:36:04.321-04:00TLE:
"Rational legislation enacted and enfo...TLE: <br /><br />"Rational legislation enacted and enforced by adults would be considerably more effective, Susan."<br /><br />Planning to form a vanguard party, Thomas? Choose your cadre carefully, or things might not turn out the way you expect.<br /><br />I don't have an especially high regard for people who don't learn their lessons either. Do you think you've learned all of yours yet? I know I'm smart enough not to buy property on Steelhead Dr., but I'm pretty sure I've got a few serious mistakes of my own left to make. One thing I'm 100% sure of is that it's a good thing I'm not King of the World. What about you?Mal Adaptedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06123525780458234978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-34944959707515022402014-05-04T10:41:42.956-04:002014-05-04T10:41:42.956-04:00Human is the highest we can aspire to, Thomas.
Oh...<i>Human is the highest we can aspire to, Thomas.</i><br /><br />Oh really. Evolution doesn't appeal to you then. I've moved beyond human, and that doesn't involve being nice to humans on internet forums and blog comments. Glad to hear you are non-human friendly, though, since you share their DNA. And it doesn't involve empathy for human artifacts and humans that are hundreds and thousands of miles away from me and don't learn their lessons. I'm empathetic enough to pull their asses out of the fire if I can. And I have a long and noble history of doing just that, something I don't plan to stop doing in the near future.<br /><br /><i>As to poverty, yes, compassion and empathy do help.</i><br /><br />Rational legislation enacted and enforced by adults would be considerably more effective, Susan.Thomas Lee Elifritzhttp://cosmic.lifeform.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47687159496012081132014-05-04T09:49:13.608-04:002014-05-04T09:49:13.608-04:00How about those who live in most of our cities (Bo...How about those who live in most of our cities (Boston is a case in point, of course, and I'm planning to move because I will have to, so the practical part of how to make that happen has not escaped me)?<br /><br />Fact is, cities are formed around natural features that worked and will no longer work. Meanwhile, population has grown, forcing people to push the boundaries of what is practical and safe further.<br /><br />As to poverty, yes, compassion and empathy do help. Working two or three jobs to just barely scrape buy doesn't leave a lot of leeway in choice of where to reside.Susan Andersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16935228911713362040noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-78420398157377087982014-05-04T07:40:11.217-04:002014-05-04T07:40:11.217-04:00Wrongo, Thomas! No kids, and on the back half of ...Wrongo, Thomas! No kids, and on the back half of our property, we've specifically cultivated habitat for indigenous species. We've planted over 200 trees since moving here. Human is the highest we can aspire to, Thomas. You haven't made it there yet.a_ray_in_dilbert_spacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-14925574265747690032014-05-03T14:08:58.981-04:002014-05-03T14:08:58.981-04:00That would be scary - if it was true.
So fundamen...<i>That would be scary - if it was true.</i><br /><br />So fundamentally it's just the paleorecord that you contest.<br /><br />Are you a creationist? Or are you a mere conspiracist with an ideology?Thomas Lee Elifritzhttp://cosmic.lifeform.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-31133744889871971432014-05-03T13:10:55.922-04:002014-05-03T13:10:55.922-04:00"Well, yeah, since in addition to all those o..."Well, yeah, since in addition to all those other inevitable disasters they've now put their primary food supply at risk."<br /><br />That would be scary - if it was true.<br /><br />Unfortunately, the greatest current and foreseeable problem with food supply appears to be <a href="http://www.who.int/nutrition/topics/3_foodconsumption/en/" rel="nofollow">global obesity from increased caloric intake</a>.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-82244945727741554112014-05-03T09:16:35.622-04:002014-05-03T09:16:35.622-04:00Hi Harold, hoped that would bring you in. If what...Hi Harold, hoped that would bring you in. If what we are seeing is the mobile home effect, then the great recession in 2008 which threw a lot of people out of their homes should have produced a notable uptic in deaths of those in trailers. Has it?<br /><br />Hope you continue updating that graph. In many ways very similar to what Eli tried (not as well) with <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2013/06/rabett-does-hurricanes.html" rel="nofollow">deaths from hurricanes in Hispanola</a>EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-33036939718624998122014-05-02T22:49:34.606-04:002014-05-02T22:49:34.606-04:00Elsner's result depends very strongly on repor...Elsner's result depends very strongly on reported path width-the intensity is a strong function of width and then he multiplies the implied v^2/2 by the area of the tornado (width*length). Path width is the worst part of the dataset. Reported value changed from mean to max width in '94. More detailed surveying will lead to increased max width. With adoption of EF scale in '07, there's an abrupt doubling of the reported widths for reasons that aren't clear. No trend in width from '94-'06, nor in '07-'12. Just a step function at '07.<br /><br />One of the big things about the first graph is that it's an updated version from one that was first made in 2000. At that time, it was still a question as to whether the decline had stopped (were '98 and '99 just a couple of big years and the next few would drop well below the regression line?). My co-author and I predicted that it would be clear that the decline had stopped with a few years after 2000. Our very simple model of that was based on the much greater risk of death (15-20X) for mobile home residents compared to permanent home residents and the increase in the fraction of housing units that are mobile homes. Just using that led to a flat line in the overall deaths/million that we predicted would be apparent shortly after our publication in 2002. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017%3C0354:DITMOC%3E2.0.CO;2" rel="nofollow">Brooks and Doswell 2002</a>Harold Brooksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-17722171219533110782014-05-02T22:45:35.618-04:002014-05-02T22:45:35.618-04:00Is the entire population of stupidsville stoopid?
...<i>Is the entire population of stupidsville stoopid?</i><br /><br />Well, yeah, since in addition to all those other inevitable disasters they've now put their primary food supply at risk. I feel sorry for their children.<br /><br />What about the concept that 'you must change your behavior' do you not understand? The paleorecord?<br /><br />It's the observation of doing the same thing over and over again when you know it's bad for you, that I find humorous. But, contractor and peer pressure must be enormous, I grant you that.Thomas Lee Elifritzhttp://cosmic.lifeform.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-38991090087473694912014-05-02T22:04:37.128-04:002014-05-02T22:04:37.128-04:00Well,
Is the entire population of Seattle stoopid...Well,<br /><br />Is the entire population of Seattle stoopid ( tsunami, volcano, lahore, earthquake )?<br /><br />or San Francisco / LA ( the Big One )?<br />or Phoenix/Las Vegas? ( drought or using up ground water )<br />or Honolulu?<br />or Anchorage?<br />or Houston?<br />New Orleans? Miami? NYC?<br /><br />Disaster is not too far for many.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-79364121978610508962014-05-02T19:51:33.998-04:002014-05-02T19:51:33.998-04:00No Hank, it was an honest question. A tornado pic...No Hank, it was an honest question. A tornado picks up a load of stuff and twirls it. That soaks up energy. How much compared to what is in the tornado, don't know, but the bottom of the funnel is darkened because of the dirt pick up.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-87196507528005915822014-05-02T18:17:44.557-04:002014-05-02T18:17:44.557-04:00Susan Anderson: "People who can afford to mov...Susan Anderson: "People who can afford to move or take precautions, do"<br /><br />Susan, I'm sorry, but while TLE does appear to lack empathy, he's not wrong about stupidity. I don't have enough information on the recent tornado victims, but the case of the people who built houses in a landslide zone in Oso, WA is clear. They did so not because of poverty, but because they thought it was a nice place to live. <br /><br />Yet a view across the river from Steelhead Dr., even before the 2006 slide, would have encompassed the obvious landslide topography, the unconsolidated material of the bluff, and the oversteepened slope. If a glance at the site didn't raise any flags, the <a href="http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2023218573_mudslidewarningsxml.html" rel="nofollow">well-publicized history</a> history of the location should have. Extensive geological documentation was available to Snohomish County authorities; the statement by the head of its Department of Emergency Management that "This was a completely unforeseen slide. This came out of nowhere." is absurd. Minimal due diligence by prospective home buyers or builders could not have failed to reveal the clear and present danger.<br /><br />It sure looks like the Oso slide victims were killed by their own reckless disregard. I don't find any humor in that, but (except for the seven children whose parents ignored the risks on their behalf) I find it hard to have sympathy for them either. The world will simply never be safe for such people. Mal Adaptedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06123525780458234978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-23034513406891427992014-05-02T18:06:44.901-04:002014-05-02T18:06:44.901-04:00Nice McMansion, Dilbert, you've really got the...Nice McMansion, Dilbert, you've really got the 'being human' thing goin on there. How are the kids?<br /><br />How is that lawn doing? Are you feeding the animals? Oh, that's right, they're not HUMAN.Thomas Lee Elifritzhttp://cosmic.lifeform.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-36141237562670736932014-05-02T17:52:47.746-04:002014-05-02T17:52:47.746-04:00Your loss, Thomas. Those of us who are not afraid...Your loss, Thomas. Those of us who are not afraid to embrace being human find the experience fulfilling.a_ray_in_dilbert_spacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-20494292401136557082014-05-02T13:20:42.975-04:002014-05-02T13:20:42.975-04:00Maybe they were living in a camper because the had...<i>Maybe they were living in a camper because the had no resources left for anything better, and now how do they manage. Sure to find a cardboard box somewhere in a city and an old shopping trolley to carry what's left of their chattels.</i><br /><br />That doesn't seem to prevent them from having more babies. You people made your own beds, now sleep in them. Grow a skin.<br /><br />I'm living big in the debris. It's not my fault you have made a mess of the world. I have made a conscious decision 1) not to participate, 2) to bring the problems to your attention, and 3) to come up with some solutions.<br /><br />Call me stupid. But I will continue to laugh when I see millions of dollars of luxury stick home remodeling efforts strewn across the countryside or sitting under water. Not my fault.Thomas Lee Elifritzhttp://cosmic.lifeform.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-49586627873821572892014-05-02T13:05:18.093-04:002014-05-02T13:05:18.093-04:00TLE
What chance do people stand when they have be...TLE<br /><br />What chance do people stand when they have been forced out of destroyed homes into caravan parks and then blown out again by high winds?<br /><br />Maybe they were living in a camper because the had no resources left for anything better, and now how do they manage. Sure to find a cardboard box somewhere in a city and an old shopping trolley to carry what's left of their chattels.<br /><br />Sheesh! Some people are just so smug!<br /><br />The bottom line is things ain't going to get better RSN (Real Soon Now - Jerry Pournelle)Lionel Anoreply@blogger.com