tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post2795265007629764087..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: BEST project at BerkeleyEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-43281732070551894302011-04-02T02:12:31.330-04:002011-04-02T02:12:31.330-04:00The Muller's Tale<a href="http://halgeranon.blogspot.com/2011/04/mullers-tale.html" rel="nofollow">The Muller's Tale</a>Horatio Algeranonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12988805467080448954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-81319534230166899362011-04-01T19:46:24.961-04:002011-04-01T19:46:24.961-04:00http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article76...http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article767459.ece<br /><br /><strong>SCIENTISTS have for the first time [NOTE: MORE THAN FIVE YEARS AGO] found evidence that polar bears are drowning because climate change is melting the Arctic ice shelf.</strong><br /><br /><em>The researchers were startled to find bears having to swim up to 60 miles across open sea to find food. They are being forced into the long voyages because the ice floes from which they feed are melting, becoming smaller and drifting farther apart.<br /><br />Although polar bears are strong swimmers, they are adapted for swimming close to the shore. Their sea journeys leave them them vulnerable to exhaustion, hypothermia or being swamped by waves. <br /><br />According to the new research, four bear carcases were found floating in one month in a single patch of sea off the north coast of Alaska, where average summer temperatures have increased by 2-3C degrees since 1950s. <br /><br />The scientists believe such drownings are becoming widespread across the Arctic, an inevitable consequence of the doubling in the past 20 years of the proportion of polar bears having to swim in open seas. <br /><br />“Mortalities due to offshore swimming may be a relatively important and unaccounted source of natural mortality given the energetic demands placed on individual bears engaged in long-distance swimming,” says the research led by Dr Charles Monnett, marine ecologist at the American government’s Minerals Management Service. “Drowning-related deaths of polar bears may increase in the future if the observed trend of regression of pack ice continues.” </em>Marion Delgadohttp://fascistoar.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47686703039032893982011-04-01T18:52:59.839-04:002011-04-01T18:52:59.839-04:00Somewhere I read a report, based on observations, ...Somewhere I read a report, based on observations, from which one easily infers the death of a polar bear cub from dearth of sea ice.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47582973430592477032011-04-01T14:35:25.576-04:002011-04-01T14:35:25.576-04:00"Opposite to what might be expected, but also..."Opposite to what might be expected, but also consistent with zero."<br /><br />I like that. I may find uses for that.Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-44023437165553701232011-04-01T12:23:55.858-04:002011-04-01T12:23:55.858-04:00Doubt is Muller's product.
http://www.defendi...Doubt is Muller's product.<br /><br />http://www.defendingscience.org/Doubt_is_Their_Product.cfmMarion Delgadohttp://fascistoar.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-73972988222521750492011-04-01T11:29:18.752-04:002011-04-01T11:29:18.752-04:00As Jim Morrison once presciently noted (decades be...As Jim Morrison once presciently noted (decades before Anthony got his "Best Science Blog" award):<br /><br />"The watts is the best".<br /><br />Who are the rest of us to question that? <br /><br /><a href="http://halgeranon.blogspot.com/2011/02/end.html" rel="nofollow">This <i>is</i> the end...</a>Horatio Algeranonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12988805467080448954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-57944329644494023372011-04-01T10:08:43.954-04:002011-04-01T10:08:43.954-04:00The BEST guys have clearly not learned from the mi...The BEST guys have clearly not <a href="http://denialdepot.blogspot.com/2011/03/word-of-caution-to-best-project-team.html" rel="nofollow">learned from the mistakes of the alarmofascists</a>.Paul Daniel Ashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17633446166342778475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-76302206479343301092011-04-01T09:57:38.234-04:002011-04-01T09:57:38.234-04:00You should see the cow that Watts is having over t...You should see the cow that Watts is having over that one!Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-85157617830426993592011-04-01T09:40:18.889-04:002011-04-01T09:40:18.889-04:00"In fact, in our preliminary analysis the goo..."In fact, in our preliminary analysis the good stations report more warming in the U.S. than the poor stations by 0.009 ± 0.009 degrees per decade, opposite to what might be expected, but also consistent with zero. We are currently checking these results and performing the calculation in several different ways. But we are consistently finding that there is no enhancement of global warming trends due to the inclusion of the poorly ranked US stations."<br /><br />-- <a href="http://berkeleyearth.org/Resources/Muller_Testimony_31_March_2011" rel="nofollow">STATEMENT TO THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE AND TECHNOLOGY OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES</a> by Richard A. Muller, Chair, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature ProjectPaul Daniel Ashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17633446166342778475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-26216985573735639032011-03-31T22:54:42.600-04:002011-03-31T22:54:42.600-04:00> One reason the skeptics are winning the PR ba...> One reason the skeptics are winning the PR battle is that they can point to all these claims made in the past ~20 years that aren't apparent, or don't seem valid at this time.<br /><br />If the game is set in those terms, anti-establishment will always win.<br /><br />Nobody forces anyone to frame the game like that.willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-81558354245456478902011-03-31T22:06:13.982-04:002011-03-31T22:06:13.982-04:00In BCC's milieu he probably gets an earful of ...In BCC's milieu he probably gets an earful of alleged exaggerations or worse. He's holding up quite well. Meanwhile here is a <a href="http://skepticalscience.com/Muller-Misinformation-1-confusing-Mikes-trick-with-hide-the-decline.html" rel="nofollow">note</a> on Muller.<br /><br />Pete DunkelbergAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-92166948108072784142011-03-31T21:14:23.399-04:002011-03-31T21:14:23.399-04:00BCC, what you seem to be advocating is that scient...BCC, what you seem to be advocating is that scientists not discuss the worst-case aspects of climate projections. I think that would be a mistake.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-29030945594944025952011-03-31T19:41:20.815-04:002011-03-31T19:41:20.815-04:00Snow Bunny says:
Deniers make up exaggerations wh...Snow Bunny says:<br /><br />Deniers make up exaggerations where there are none. Recent example: The claim that a specific scientist said that the Japan earthquake/tsunami is due to melting of the Arctic ice due to global warming. No scientist would confuse slippage along a subduction zone with isostatic rebound. No scientist said that. One did publish a paper last(!) year that earthquakes may occur sometime due to deglaciation and trigger tsunamis. The writeup on the denier website left out the date of the paper, implying it referred specifically to the Japan event. <br /><br />The original poster doesn't have to lie; they just shade around the truth. The echoers blow it up. <br /><br />I think accusing climate scientists of causing a problem by exaggerating is a distraction. On balance, they have understated the problem and been too conservative with warnings. Glaciers are melting faster than expected due to unforeseen mechanisms; positive feedbacks are occurring that weren't thought of; and most of all, humans are excreting CO2 faster than first thought.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-7413630212803904202011-03-31T19:04:18.515-04:002011-03-31T19:04:18.515-04:00You're both wrong, it's 1/8 :-PYou're both wrong, it's 1/8 :-PLazarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-56466231939864946702011-03-31T18:42:46.606-04:002011-03-31T18:42:46.606-04:00BCC: "I contend that our credibility problem ...<i>BCC: "I contend that our credibility problem is ~1/4 exaggerated claims, ~3/4 skeptics' exaggeration of those exaggerations."</i><br /><br />Not calling you the enemy, BCC, but that ratio itself is a gross exaggeration. Dividing the number of occasional imperfect choices of words by climate scientists by the avalanche of mendacious sound bites from the denialists would actually yield a figure requiring negative exponents to express economically.<br /><br />Sorry, but I'm not buying your argument; you imply a sizable body of unwarranted, debunked alarmism that is in fact minute.<br /><br />-Adam R.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-62177763163875734382011-03-31T17:17:25.415-04:002011-03-31T17:17:25.415-04:00I have strong libertarian leanings and I say: let&...I have strong libertarian leanings and I say: let's wait till the end of the melting season of 2012, okay? A repeat of 2007 conditions and anything is possible.<br /><br />If you want a good example, try the one of the lone British scientist who many, many years ago said kids would eventually stop experiencing snowy winters. Denialists love that one.<br /><br />If you want to control thousands of scientists (and some will be whacky) because otherwise the denialists will exploit aggressive statements, I don't think you're going about it the right way. The denialists will exploit anyhow, no matter what you do or don't do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-62889442862876837522011-03-31T17:11:44.897-04:002011-03-31T17:11:44.897-04:00BCC has a rather nice blog on solar power and clim...BCC has a rather nice blog on <a href="http://epiphron.tumblr.com/" rel="nofollow">solar power and climate change</a>.<br /><br />Let's make more effort to understand individuals before squeezing them into categories and jumping down their throats. Let's not be Watts. Let's not make enemies where we potentially don't need to.Lazarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-7827674622569377352011-03-31T17:01:53.358-04:002011-03-31T17:01:53.358-04:00Let me be clear: I am not a delayer. My quals: MS ...Let me be clear: I am not a delayer. My quals: MS from MIT studying deep-ocean CO2 sequestration (dodgy). Founded and chaired town Sustainable Energy Committee. Allocated $7 figures of funds for town building energy retrofits. Helped get 40kW PV on my kids' school (at <$5/W!). Advocated for in-town MW-scale PV project, which town voted in favor of, and is now in permitting. Currently serve on board of muni utility, where I push for more renewables & less consumption. If anything, I'm an accelerator. <br /><br />If you think I'm the enemy, you have a problem, because your tribe must be very small.<br /><br />I contend that our credibility problem is ~1/4 exaggerated claims, ~3/4 skeptics' exaggeration of those exaggerations. Examples? Here's one:<br /><br />http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html<br />This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: "At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions."<br /><br />Yes, he said "could be" and "at this rate", but all that matters is the phrase "ice-free at the end of summer by 2012"<br /><br />Do I think the Arctic is melting? You betcha: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/<br />Ice-free in 2012? Not likely: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png<br /><br />But now the skeptics get to carry on about how we exaggerate, can't predict a damn thing, there's plenty of ice, etc. And they're frickin' winning. And the wound is partially self-inflicted.<br /><br />I think everyone, even the good guys, need to be less tribal. <br /><br />If Muller ends up taking Koch money to basically affirm the temperature record, that's a win in my book!BCChttp://epiphron.tumblr.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-29647827888224147942011-03-31T16:21:58.105-04:002011-03-31T16:21:58.105-04:00The hypocrisy of Muller is breathtaking. While fu...The hypocrisy of Muller is breathtaking. While fuming at the supposed poor standards of climate scientists, he casually drops clankers that are only worthy of an 'A' grade denier, that he has no scientific evidence for. He should be held to account for his Polar Bear statement, because it is just a bald assertion that he does not and cannot have any evidence for, and that ignores the coming warming that is already drastically changing their habitat.<br /><br />All I am doing is holding him to the standards that he goes out in public and DEMANDS of other scientists. In his speeches, he makes it clear that anything less is simply unnacebtable and, from the tone of his voice, unforgivable.<br /><br />Anon(1)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-56935154912422954912011-03-31T16:18:41.530-04:002011-03-31T16:18:41.530-04:00"Denier" is such a weak, ineffectual ter..."Denier" is such a weak, ineffectual term. Have some backbone, people. The proper label for these types is <b>denialist</b>, as in creationist, or even propagandist. "The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their right names."seamushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04299590041498402002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-32278257038446021222011-03-31T16:05:50.670-04:002011-03-31T16:05:50.670-04:00Exaggerated? That's the Big Lie. It's actu...Exaggerated? That's the Big Lie. It's actually <a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=global+warming+worse+than+thought" rel="nofollow">worse than we thought</a>.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com" rel="nofollow">Copenhagen Diagnosis</a>: "...several important aspects of climate change are already occurring at the high end, or even beyond, the expectations of just a few years ago. ...global ice sheets are melting at an increased rate; Arctic sea ice is thinning and melting much faster than recently projected, and future sea-level rise is now expected to be much higher than previously forecast."seamushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04299590041498402002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-82620148696340209512011-03-31T14:25:36.786-04:002011-03-31T14:25:36.786-04:00"Not a single polar bear has died because of ..."Not a single polar bear has died because of receding ice"?<br /><br />Not a single person has died as a result of a radiation leak from Fukushima, either.<br /><br />TobyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-49259725646025701752011-03-31T13:54:21.559-04:002011-03-31T13:54:21.559-04:00Marion,
"why not evaluate this project based...Marion,<br /><br /><i>"why not evaluate this project based on something besides feelings"</i><br /><br />My feelings as such were toward Richard Muller, not *the project*. The project includes the man behind the excellent globalwarmingart.com: Robert Rhodes as lead scientist, and a serious and rather famous time-series guy in David Brillinger. I would not wish to evaluate the project before their results and methodology have been published, would you?<br /><br /><i>"Is it necessary?"</i><br /><br />Necessary for what ends and judged by what metrics? I don't think we need another analysis to get a handle on global average temperature, and Richard Muller has said that results are unlikely to show substantial divergence at the global level from what we already know. Might denser sampling and new algorithms provide useful information at the local and regional levels? Possibly. I don't know. I think it's worth a shot.<br /><br /><i>"Is it data averse? Considering what they're NOT monitoring"</i><br /><br />Well, you could claim that *every* global surface temperature analysis is "data averse" for not monitoring global sea levels, and that global sea level analyses are "data averse" for not monitoring global surface temperatures... if this is what you mean... but I think that is not useful. It should be *acceptable* to do science without having to throw in for political reasons some PR caveat about 'but the sea ice is declining' and 'but the satellites show warming' and 'but global warming is still happening' every single time.<br /><br /><i>"Does it resemble other fossil-fuel and/or tobacco-funded doubt-creation vehicles? In terms of funding and publicity, it does, which is evidence it's yet another one."</i><br /><br />Publicity, yes there has been relatively good coverage. Science needs more publicity like this.<br /><br />Funding. In addition to $150,000 from the Koch foundation, they received $188,587 from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and $100,000 from Bill Gates' "Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research". What do I make of that? Nothing, unless it can be shown or hinted that funding has influenced results... and the results ain't even out yet! Do the Koch brothers hope BEST will show substantially less global warming? Very probably. So what. Take their money and run. Use it to produce good science. That's what I'd want to do.Lazarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-77675153373311440752011-03-31T13:04:27.678-04:002011-03-31T13:04:27.678-04:00And of course, the denier-bots have been leaving t...And of course, the denier-bots have been leaving their steaming turds in the comments over there...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-23679022562025016392011-03-31T12:55:20.907-04:002011-03-31T12:55:20.907-04:00Poor Dr Muller and the GEST project... it seems to...Poor Dr Muller and the GEST project... it seems to be caught in the cross-fire.<br />Its instructive to compare this thread with the one on the subject at WUWT...!<br /><br />-izenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com