tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post924912255227062176..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Did Climate Change Load the Dice for Sandy?EliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-19184301801666776272012-11-03T11:49:09.561-04:002012-11-03T11:49:09.561-04:00Well, it's safe to say Sandy put climate chang...Well, it's safe to say Sandy put climate change back on the political table, and restored "global warming" into the popular lexicon. The GOP should claim its money back from Frank Luntz.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-69900714886468794942012-11-01T20:50:50.335-04:002012-11-01T20:50:50.335-04:00So, George Lakoff chides scientists like Hansen fo...So, George Lakoff chides scientists like Hansen for communication failure when they say things like <br /><br /><i>"we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small."</i><br /><br />Lakoff claims that use of terminology like "high degree of confidence, anomalies, consequence, likelihood, absence, and exceedingly small" amounts to "Scientific weasel words!" and that "The power of the bald truth, namely causation, is lost."<br /><br />Hansen et al made that assessment after detailed study of the specific extreme events in question.<br /><br />The statement made by Hansen et al was both scientifically accurate and quite blunt.<br /><br /><br />For Lakoff to call their statement "weasel words" is simply silly. Dumb really. I wonder if Lakoff even knows what "weasel words" means. <br /><br />He certainly doesn't understand how science works, that much is clear.<br /><br /><br />Personally, I'd much prefer to let the real scientists like Hansen analyze, draw conclusions about specific extreme events and describe the state of the science rather than have a "framer" like Lakoff get into the act (cunninglinguist though he may be).<br /><br /><br />~@:><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-84371909300270388532012-11-01T16:52:01.215-04:002012-11-01T16:52:01.215-04:00Anonymouse's argument FAIL:
"But to the ...Anonymouse's argument FAIL:<br /><br />"But to the extent we look at tropical cyclones, we observe that the accumulated cyclone energy exhibits lower than average values recently within a wide range and that this particular storm is not abnormal in either intensity, time, or location."<br /><br />It would be like an saying an athlete running a 4.30, weigh 300 lbs, and run a marathon in just a bit over two hours is nothing unusual, since none of these are abnormal for an athlete. <br /><br />Conspicuously absent: a quantitative number for Sandy, such as aforementioned accumulated cyclone energy, and an argument for why accumulated cyclone energy is an appropriate measure when concerned about hurricane threats or impact of global warming on hurricanes.<br /><br />To be fair to anonymouse, s/he is good at cut-n-paste from wikipedia.<br /><br />Rib Smokin' Bunny<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-50195253974632229582012-11-01T16:34:09.714-04:002012-11-01T16:34:09.714-04:00Statistics Show Hurricane Sandy’s Extraordinary In...<a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/statistics-show-just-how-intense-hurricane-sandy-was-15196" rel="nofollow">Statistics Show Hurricane Sandy’s Extraordinary Intensity</a><br /><br />Emanuel and Oppenheimer's worst-case scenario storm model fell short of Sandy's intensity.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-58038113779211109292012-11-01T14:55:25.346-04:002012-11-01T14:55:25.346-04:00Skeptical Science:
Sandy "had the most kinet...Skeptical Science:<br /><br />Sandy "had the most kinetic energy of any tropical cyclone on record at 222 trillion Joules (the equivalent of 3.5 Little Boy Hiroshima atomic bombs) - more energy than Category 5 hurricanes like Katrina despite Sandy just being Category 1, because Sandy was spread over a much larger area."<br /><br />http://www.skepticalscience.com/hurricane-sandy-climate-connection.html<br /><br />Slow and vicious wins the race.Jeffrey Davishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966839006518642902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-64621084012395027812012-11-01T08:54:43.911-04:002012-11-01T08:54:43.911-04:00Bloomberg Businessweek: 'It's Global Warmi...<a href="http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-01/its-global-warming-stupid#r=hp-ls" rel="nofollow">Bloomberg Businessweek: 'It's Global Warming Stupid'</a><br /><br /><i>"Yes, yes, it’s unsophisticated to blame any given storm on climate change. Men and women in white lab coats tell us—and they’re right—that many factors contribute to each severe weather episode. Climate deniers exploit scientific complexity to avoid any discussion at all.<br />[...]<br />Such numbers reflect the success of climate deniers in framing action on global warming as inimical to economic growth. This is both shortsighted and dangerous. The U.S. can’t afford regular Sandy-size disruptions in economic activity. To limit the costs of climate-related disasters, both politicians and the public need to accept how much they’re helping to cause them."</i><br />J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-73928742831557918542012-10-31T14:00:28.982-04:002012-10-31T14:00:28.982-04:00Or was Anonymous 31/10/12 10:21 just pulling a lis...Or was Anonymous 31/10/12 10:21 just pulling a list out of their arse and throwing it in the hope that something might stick?J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-21645818454536409532012-10-31T13:30:17.071-04:002012-10-31T13:30:17.071-04:00Anonymous, could you single out from your list the...Anonymous, could you single out from your list the storms that were 1000 miles across, had a barometric pressure of 940 mb (normally associated with a Cat3), caused a 13+ foot storm surge, shut down the NYSE for two days, all after it had made landfall in New Jersey in late October? Thanks.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-50787143008011609182012-10-31T13:21:56.302-04:002012-10-31T13:21:56.302-04:00[" this particular storm is not abnormal in e...[" this particular storm is not abnormal in either intensity, time, or location."<br />Sorry, Joey, I'll take the word of every friggin' expert over some random internet idiot every day of the week.]<br /><br />Sigh.<br /><br />Here are just the October or later New England tropical storms:<br />( Not including the Gale of February 23, 1723- there wouldn't be enough Xanax to calm you down if that recurred ).<br /><br />October 29, 1693- <br />October 18, 1703- <br />October 8, 1747- <br />November 1, 1778- <br />October 8–9, 1782- <br />October 18–19, 1782- <br />October 9,[3] 1804- <br />October 11, 1830 – <br />October 3, 1841 - <br />October 14, 1846 - <br />October 6, 1849 - <br />October 19, 1851 - <br />November 3, 1861- <br />October 30, 1866- <br />October 10, 1894- <br />October 6, 1898- <br />November 1, 1899- <br />1927 November — <br />1962 October - Hurricane Daisy<br />1963 October - Hurricane Ginny<br />1991 October - Hurricane Grace/Henri <br />October 8, 1996 – The remnants of Tropical Storm Josephine<br />Early October, 2003 – The interaction between Hurricane Kate and a high pressure area to its north produced 3 to 4 foot (1 m) waves along the coast.[16]<br />October 7, – October 12, 2005 – The remnants of Tropical Storm Tammy<br />November 3, 2007 – As an extratropical hurricane, Hurricane Noel hits coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Maine with hurricane-force wind gusts of up to 89 mph<br />November 12, 2009 – Hurricane Ida after hitting the northeast gulf coast as a tropical storm, redeveloped off the Carolina coast as a strong nor'easter, bringing severe damage<br />October 29, 2012 - Storm surges, wind and rain from outer bands of Hurricane Sandy reached Southern New England before the storm's landfall in New Jersey.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_England_hurricanes<br /><br />Here's an interesting paper: faculty.gg.uwyo.edu/bshuman/Pubs/Donnelly-GSABull.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47747651570820731802012-10-31T11:15:34.724-04:002012-10-31T11:15:34.724-04:00Would the village that lost its idiot kindly claim...<a href="http://www.wnd.com/2012/10/global-warming-did-not-cause-sandy/" rel="nofollow">Would the village that lost its idiot kindly claim him back</a>.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-29980298322423430882012-10-31T09:54:31.741-04:002012-10-31T09:54:31.741-04:00On U.S. news, there is a poll asking the readers i...<i>On U.S. news, there is a poll asking the readers if Sandy was caused by Global warming. </i>"<br /><br />I can see nails for another Lewandowsky hammer. <br /><br />With the added hook that there are apparently people who think that the hurricane was generated by HAARP in order to win Obama the election - although in the next breath these same foil-hatters will swear that it's impossible for human activity to affect the climate in any way... it's amazing how thermodynamically-innumerate the denialati are.<br /><br />"<i>Witnessing the overdrive of denial on the internet, I think I just figured out why we've never seen advanced alien species paying us a visit: they never got to the interstellar travel stage because they harnessed energy from fossil fuels, too, and are now extinct or living in caves again. </i>"<br /><br />A notion to which I firmly subscribe. Perhaps another target for a Baysian analysis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-41624662759017968222012-10-31T08:37:42.697-04:002012-10-31T08:37:42.697-04:00Witnessing the overdrive of denial on the internet...Witnessing the overdrive of denial on the internet, I think I just figured out why we've never seen advanced alien species paying us a visit: they never got to the interstellar travel stage because they harnessed energy from fossil fuels, too, and are now extinct or living in caves again. J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-75615557330448624022012-10-31T06:48:23.833-04:002012-10-31T06:48:23.833-04:00In the meantime, the deniers have been busy. On U....In the meantime, the deniers have been busy. On U.S. news, there is a poll asking the readers if Sandy was caused by Global warming. <br /><br />http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2012/10/30/was-hurricane-sandy-caused-by-global-warming<br /><br />So Willard has invited his followers to vote (and they have successfully changed the result of the poll).Kutainoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-41497257405417371562012-10-31T04:31:01.897-04:002012-10-31T04:31:01.897-04:00George Lakoff' excellent article at AlterNet o...George Lakoff' excellent article at AlterNet on systemic causes.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.alternet.org/environment/global-warming-systemically-caused-hurricane-sandy" rel="nofollow">Global Warming Systemically Caused Hurricane Sandy</a>J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-5615331168316977882012-10-30T23:36:49.316-04:002012-10-30T23:36:49.316-04:00" this particular storm is not abnormal in ei..." this particular storm is not abnormal in either intensity, time, or location."<br /><br /><br />Sorry, Joey, I'll take the word of every friggin' expert over some random internet idiot every day of the week.<br /><br />WUWT will, however, annoint you as the next Galileo. Get thee hence.<br />dhogazanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-18747442817149911322012-10-30T23:33:37.941-04:002012-10-30T23:33:37.941-04:00"Sorry Mal Adapted, but I don't know what..."Sorry Mal Adapted, but I don't know what El Reg"<br /><br />The Register, once "Goddard"'s home, until even they couldn't stomach his dishonesty (took some time, though).<br />dhogazanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-7610392913872312932012-10-30T21:44:06.720-04:002012-10-30T21:44:06.720-04:00Roger Pielke Junior sure does like to lie with fac...Roger Pielke Junior sure does like to lie with facts. Keep your eye on the pea folks, Roger is at the table trying to deny reality and feeding the deniers fodder for good measure. <br /><br />Roger Junior was caught out <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-real-game-changer.html?showComment=1351114252975#c1907595420305181156" rel="nofollow">lying</a> and <a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-real-game-changer.html?showComment=1351114388754#c2074409813138571" rel="nofollow">distorting facts</a> to fit his agenda/narrative. Desperate actions by a desperate man.<br /><br />He is shameless. He is long overdue for another take down-- tedious yes, but necessary. Playing whack-a-mole with these deluded characters is tiresome but necessary.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-88742406675583874782012-10-30T21:10:50.241-04:002012-10-30T21:10:50.241-04:00Sorry Mal Adapted, but I don't know what El Re...Sorry Mal Adapted, but I don't know what El Reg is, and I get the feeling I probably don't want to know... So I likely miss your point.<br /><br /><i>Cymraeg llygoden</i>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-44453211185546337052012-10-30T20:08:57.078-04:002012-10-30T20:08:57.078-04:00Cymraeg llygoden: "Hat,... coat,..."
Ha...Cymraeg llygoden: "Hat,... coat,..."<br /><br />Have you been hanging out at El Reg, or did they get it from you?<br /><br />Mal AdaptedAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-45312705281572126502012-10-30T19:01:22.668-04:002012-10-30T19:01:22.668-04:00Tonylearns, at least 23 times Goddard has tried to...Tonylearns, at least 23 times Goddard has tried to hammer James Hansen for saying the Westside Highway would be covered with water!<br /><br />Of course, I can't post at Goddard's site, either, most of the time.<br /><br />So I put together a post at my site, with one photo, and the links to Goddard's site. http://timpanogos.wordpress.com/2012/10/30/ouch-warming-denialists-claims-blown-away-by-sandy/<br /><br />Maybe someone could go to Goddard's site and copy those two dozen posts before he takes them down. <br /><br />What tragedies have these denialists set us up for?Ed Darrellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10056539160596825210noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-4057185877018550072012-10-30T14:40:03.347-04:002012-10-30T14:40:03.347-04:00Mitt Romney Refuses To Talk About FEMA After Hurri...<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/30/mitt-romney-fema_n_2044213.html" rel="nofollow">Mitt Romney Refuses To Talk About FEMA After Hurricane Sandy Event</a>J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-17613253734689382942012-10-30T14:37:03.544-04:002012-10-30T14:37:03.544-04:00NY Gov. Cuomo: “There have been a series of extrem...<a href="http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/162627/cuomo-we-need-to-plan-rebuild-for-new-reality/" rel="nofollow">NY Gov. Cuomo</a>: “There have been a series of extreme weather events. That is not a political statement; that is a factual statement. Anyone who says there is not a change in weather patterns is denying reality.”J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-3748415150051010862012-10-30T12:52:32.941-04:002012-10-30T12:52:32.941-04:00To be sure, there is a spatial component of tropic...To be sure, there is a spatial component of tropical cyclone intensity wrt sea temperature. When a storm over average temperature water passes over an area of warmer waters, the storm does realize the potential energy and intensifies. <br /><br />But that is not the underlying process of tropical cyclones. When one examines the CAPE ( Convective Available Potential Energy ) of tropical storms, one finds them low, at least compared to typical summer days over the US. The convection of TCs is driven, similar to that which occurs with cold front passages, by convergence. TCs are an exquisite expression of conservation of angular momentum - inflow near the surface, outflow aloft fostering the thunderstorms and tracing the spiral bands.<br /><br />Beyond that, one may examine the GCM prediction of the tropical upper tropospheric hot spot. That, of course, predicts increasing STABILITY, not instability. It's not observed, but that's what the GCMs predict.<br /><br />TCs are episodic events, and they, like snowstorms, are probably not good markers of any climate assessment because discrete episodes imply large variability.<br /><br />But to the extent we look at tropical cyclones, we observe that the accumulated cyclone energy exhibits lower than average values recently within a wide range and that this particular storm is not abnormal in either intensity, time, or location.<br /><br />Joe MahmaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-27111833707332697742012-10-30T12:38:49.872-04:002012-10-30T12:38:49.872-04:00June too soon.
July stand by.
August look out you ...June too soon.<br />July stand by.<br />August look out you must.<br />September remember.<br />October all over.<br /><br /> “Weather Lore” by R. Inwards, 1898 in reference to hurricane season.<br /><br />AnonySpilopsyllaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-89033283835199674092012-10-30T12:27:45.861-04:002012-10-30T12:27:45.861-04:00
Really?
A category 1 hurricane, during hurricane...<br />Really?<br /><br />A category 1 hurricane, during hurricane season?<br /><br />Really?<br /><br />Eunice.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com