tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post8592782590201660286..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: A Dog's DinnerEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger50125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-45856384135313224162014-09-29T13:51:00.344-04:002014-09-29T13:51:00.344-04:00Wait, you're claiming this is a decrease? Doe...Wait, you're claiming this is a decrease? Doesn't look like it:<br /><br />http://climatewatcher.webs.com/NCDC_TrendOfTrends_34.gifHank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-76143577750782091672014-09-27T15:19:15.048-04:002014-09-27T15:19:15.048-04:00Whoops. Wrong thread. Apologies.Whoops. Wrong thread. Apologies.BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-51812073221733975662014-09-27T15:18:05.221-04:002014-09-27T15:18:05.221-04:00I won't hold my breath.
Best not, ATTP. You ...<i> I won't hold my breath. </i><br /><br />Best not, ATTP. You might well die.BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42880541097534579042014-09-27T13:00:02.377-04:002014-09-27T13:00:02.377-04:00Dear Anon.
Kinda makes one wonder why the IPCC wa...Dear Anon.<br /><br /><i>Kinda makes one wonder why the IPCC was so confident in their prediction. </i><br /><br />Please link to the section(s) in AR4 where it states that natural variability stopped at the beginning of this century and 'predicts' that warming will be monotonic for the rest of this century.<br /><br />BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-7311580094628799732014-09-27T11:30:40.851-04:002014-09-27T11:30:40.851-04:00"Kinda makes one wonder why the IPCC was so c..."Kinda makes one wonder why the IPCC was so confident in their prediction. "<br /><br />Maybe because they were not theoretical nuclear physicists?EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-54156389648181827122014-09-27T08:54:38.493-04:002014-09-27T08:54:38.493-04:00Kinda makes one wonder why the IPCC was so confide...Kinda makes one wonder why the IPCC was so confident in their prediction.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-15344009728425216002014-09-26T22:05:43.280-04:002014-09-26T22:05:43.280-04:00Hi Lucy,
You stated that atmospheric temperatures...Hi Lucy,<br /><br />You stated that atmospheric temperatures have certainly risen less than 0.2C/decade. It doesn't look like this is true. For instance, if you look at the last four decades you get an average of 0.22C/decade:<br /><br />Time series (gistemp) from 1974 to 2014.67<br />#Least squares trend line; slope = 0.0215801 per year<br /><br />http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/<br /><br />LayzejAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-74021386498510137862014-09-24T22:31:48.600-04:002014-09-24T22:31:48.600-04:00By the way, that bit seems to me to suggest a real...By the way, that bit seems to me to suggest a really political PR spin rather than a physicist's understanding:<br /><br /><i>Since they disagree so markedly, no more than one of them can be right."</i><br /><br />That ain't true of almost any information source. Consider the humble thermometer in weather stations, for example, and how precision in what we know about natural variation increases the more sources are available. <br /><br />The chemists know this stuff:<br />http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chemlab/info/resources/uncertain.html<br /><br />How about the physicists?<br /><br />Who is this guy again, and what do the JASONs do?<br /><br />Or did some PR guy from the industry write that op-ed piece and attach his name to it?Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-20614669988591390102014-09-24T21:57:29.087-04:002014-09-24T21:57:29.087-04:00"Santer and Collins are basically giving less..."Santer and Collins are basically giving lessons in climate science to the committee. Do you think there's enough time to properly educate them, or should some preparatory reading have been prescribed?"<br /><br />One assumes that both are unavailing, since "it is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it." (A truism; specific formulation credited to Upton Sinclair.)Mal Adaptedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06123525780458234978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-80837150557369919032014-09-24T17:52:03.472-04:002014-09-24T17:52:03.472-04:00Guthrie pointed out in the earlier topic, last Feb...Guthrie pointed out in the earlier topic, last February:<br /><br /><i> Santer and Collins are basically giving lessons in climate science to the committee. Do you think there's enough time to properly educate them, or should some preparatory reading have been prescribed?<br />Also it seems pretty stupid to have to go through the basics again, when they were either nailed down 40 years ago or were nailed down 5 years ago but the committee members haven't heard about them because its not their area of expertise.<br />It looks at the moment like they're going to try and rubbish the models, and of course the 'hiatus' that isn't has also come up.</i>Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-88511554550762374152014-09-24T17:43:33.294-04:002014-09-24T17:43:33.294-04:00"... an ensemble of some 55 different models ..."... an ensemble of some 55 different models [5]. Although most of these models are tuned to reproduce the gross features of the Earth's climate, the marked differences in their details and pro<br />jections reflect all of the limitations ....<br />... Since they disagree so markedly, no more than one of them can be right."<br /><br />http://cusp.nyu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Climate-article-annotated1.pdf<br /><br />======== oh? Rly? =============<br /><br />"... for the nonexpert, a collection of results is often most useful when combined and synthesized. The motivating question behind this study is how model trustworthiness can be increased by combining results of multiple models.<br /><br />2. Model diversity: Potentials and challenges<br /><br />Different scientific questions require different models in terms of resolution, components and processes, and spatial domain. However, there are also families of models of the same type—that is, multiple models incorporating the same set of processes at similar resolutions.... <br />... can be seen as multiple credible approximations of the truth, given some constraints in complexity and computational cost. These are often seen as coexisting rather than competing models (Parker 2006). While two models may make assumptions on smaller scales that could be seen as inconsistent, both models would agree with observations within some uncertainty (typically a sum of observational uncertainty and the structural model error) and would therefore be considered plausible....<br /><br />Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models<br />KNUTTI, FURRER, TEBALDI, CERMAK, and MEEHL<br />http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/assets/osgc/OSGC-000-000-000-883.pdf<br />DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI3361.1<br />J. Climate v.23Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-45312831957475232512014-09-24T11:31:20.669-04:002014-09-24T11:31:20.669-04:00Isn't something happening in Paris? Oh yeah. F...Isn't something happening in Paris? Oh yeah. FOIA milked the emails. Time for the WSJ to do their part in ruining civilisation.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-64734562795512636522014-09-24T10:41:55.264-04:002014-09-24T10:41:55.264-04:00For those who are interested in the spread of Koon...For those who are interested in the spread of Koonin's politically motivated piece thru the internet, this morning's google search ["Climate Science Is Not Settled" Koonin] returned 86,300 hits. That's almost 10 times greater than that 2 days ago. Rather like the exponential spread of Ebola and maybe just as bad for the long term future of the planet...E. Swansonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16458400506150142847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-16978404555365330862014-09-24T10:36:19.267-04:002014-09-24T10:36:19.267-04:00Anonymouse/Lucy said:
"Your original entry i...Anonymouse/Lucy said:<br /><br />"Your original entry indicates that you thought that UAH corrections resolve the difference between what is modeled and what is observed. That is incorrect. The gcms conjure up a Hot Spot that is not observed ( in radiosonde data, the UAH analysis, or the RSS analysis )."<br /><br />Since you don't provide a reference, I assume that you are referring to Spencer and Christy's analysis of tropical data from the MSU, using data from their MT product. The MT data is known to include contamination from the stratosphere that has exhibited a cooling trend. Thus, it's no surprise that their result shows little warming. They know this, yet still continue to spread their claim that there's little warming in the upper troposphere. I think this shows S&C aren't interested in a truthful presentation of the facts. Their antics border on scientific misconduct, IMHO.<br /><br />While we're at it, did you know that ozone is a greenhouse gas? The area of depleted ozone over the Antarctic (the OZONE HOLE) is likely to have cooled the atmosphere below, which would, in turn, tend to produce more sea-ice during the freeze season. But, don't let mere facts stand in the way of your denialist rants...E. Swansonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16458400506150142847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-68194021670673040072014-09-24T10:11:22.233-04:002014-09-24T10:11:22.233-04:00Nando -- "The top of the atmosphere is a conc...Nando -- <i>"The top of the atmosphere is a concern for the International Space Station´s crew. I tend to worry more about the surface."</i><br /><br />It's safe to say that <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/22/flood-wall-street-protest-arrest-police-climate-change-new-york" rel="nofollow">the following quote from John the Wall Street broker, last Sunday</a>, is far more intellectually rigourous and honest.<br /><br />"One man, a physician, thought the protests were “awesome”, but that opinion was not shared across the line.<br /><br />“I think it’s bullshit,” said John, a broker who did not want his last name or the firm he works for identified. He said that the protests were obnoxious and that climate change is a scam created by Al Gore to make money.<br /><br />He said that his clients had made a lot of money by investing in companies that burn fossil fuels. “I think anything that makes clients money is good for my clients, and it’s good for the country’s economy,” John said."<br /><br />At least John is honest with his audience and himself about where he actually stands.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-89399728809475493352014-09-24T09:34:25.171-04:002014-09-24T09:34:25.171-04:00Well, if anonymouse or anyone else is interested i...Well, if anonymouse or anyone else is interested in, or interested in learning about these kinds of things, an interesting and fun (ny) place to hang out is chaosbook.org.<br /><br />May your coffee clouds be less mysterious.Thomas Lee Elifritzhttp://cosmic.lifeform.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-81768573382850341932014-09-24T09:04:48.139-04:002014-09-24T09:04:48.139-04:00Elfinwitz calling others brain dead cretins.
Very...Elfinwitz calling others brain dead cretins.<br /><br />Very entertaining.<br /><br />Carry on.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-69079032805665875012014-09-24T08:57:25.368-04:002014-09-24T08:57:25.368-04:00I looked up the lyrics and I guess I got it wrong....I looked up the lyrics and I guess I got it wrong. But now that I'm on that subject, I always liked the clouds in my coffee reference as well. Before I learned that coffee came in beans that you could grind back in the 60s and early 70s there was a brand of instant, Taster's Choice, that foamed up nicely and when stirred produced the most amazing clouds and dynamical evolving swirls, which really got me interested in Hamiltonian dynamics and chaos at a very early age. And then came that song. Now it's stuck in my head.<br /><br />Damn.Thomas Lee Elifritzhttp://cosmic.lifeform.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-24705555726421773722014-09-24T08:35:16.675-04:002014-09-24T08:35:16.675-04:00Thomas Lee Elifritz said:
Fuck off, Fernando.
Si...Thomas Lee Elifritz said:<br /><br /><i>Fuck off, Fernando.</i><br /><br />Since all attempts to engage with Fernando to date, at various venues, have proven to be... fruitless, I'm inclined to agree. I'm wondering if Fergus is having doubts about extending that olive branch now.<br /><br />BTW, Thomas, I liked your Carly Simon ref. up-thread.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-3111252461764864582014-09-24T07:51:15.514-04:002014-09-24T07:51:15.514-04:00Fuck off, Fernando.
Stronger response will follow...Fuck off, Fernando.<br /><br />Stronger response will follow.Thomas Lee Elifritzhttp://cosmic.lifeform.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-49137606032679330852014-09-24T07:45:20.065-04:002014-09-24T07:45:20.065-04:00I have a request...can we try to avoid the ugly la...<i>I have a request...can we try to avoid the ugly language?</i><br /><br />Perhaps if you were to admit that you were wrong when you make silly errors people would be less likely to deal sharply with you.<br /><br />And tone-trolling instead of an admission of error makes matters much worse.BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-79195560556997764042014-09-24T07:30:18.865-04:002014-09-24T07:30:18.865-04:00"There is considerable unhoppiness about the ..."There is considerable unhoppiness about the APS."<br /><br />Unhoppiness - is that rabettese?Lars Karlssonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-26447578058778245072014-09-24T06:32:27.582-04:002014-09-24T06:32:27.582-04:00Thomas Lee wrote
"The top of the atmosphere...Thomas Lee wrote <br /><br />"The top of the atmosphere is what we are concerned with you brain dead cretin"<br /><br />The top of the atmosphere is a concern for the International Space Station´s crew. I tend to worry more about the surface. <br /><br />I have a request...can we try to avoid the ugly language? Fernando Leanmehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16085680730729620836noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-66878448295327176022014-09-24T04:45:54.457-04:002014-09-24T04:45:54.457-04:00Steve, many deniers would take comfort.Steve, many deniers would take comfort.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-90970962406038233782014-09-24T01:47:06.259-04:002014-09-24T01:47:06.259-04:00J:
"The expansion of the Hadley cells.
&quo...J:<br /><br />"The expansion of the Hadley cells.<br /><br />"The poleward movement of storm tracks."<br /><br />Well, sort of. They're well short on the observed magnitude. They also miss the recent funny business involving blocking events, for I suspect related reasons.<br /><br />Of course any denier who thinks these particular model failings are something to take comfort from is more deranged than usual. Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.com