tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post8387962506918012083..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Christy and McNider Fall Into the "Warming Hole"EliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-4106057584381687882016-05-09T11:18:18.135-04:002016-05-09T11:18:18.135-04:00Groan, must remind myself to remember to check fac...Groan, must remind myself to remember to check facts. Going back to S&C 1992b, I found that they assign the number from the TLT calculation "to only the middle three scan position locations". So, if the western most scan position is over the Alabama grid box, the eastern edge of the swath would extend 1022 km to the east, thus out over the Atlantic. If things are reversed and it's the eastern scan position which is over Alabama, the western swath would extent 1022 km toward the west, approaching Texas...E. Swansonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16458400506150142847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-17584384761717832272016-05-08T11:18:24.658-04:002016-05-08T11:18:24.658-04:00Another fact which Christy and McNeider "forg...Another fact which Christy and McNeider "forgot" in their paper. The TLT v5.6 uses the old algorithm to adjust the MSU2 data which takes scan positions 3, 4, 8 and 9 and applies a correction by differencing with scan positions 1, 2, 10 and 11. Scan positions 5, 6, and 7, ie., the middle of the swath, are not used. However the results of this calculation are "binned" into the grid box corresponding to the nadir position, that is, scan position 6, (as I understand it). The swath width is 1894 km and the middle 3 cover 335 km. At the equator, the swath crosses 17.5 degrees of longitude and at higher latitudes, this longitudinal coverage will increase. <br /><br />As a result of these facts, almost none of the actual MSU data binned into the grid box at nadir will correspond to that location. That might not be a problem when the longitudinal data is averaged zonally in order to compute hemispherical, tropical or polar results. But, C&M apparently use a the data for the single grid box over Alabama in their comparison, so it would not be surprising that they found little agreement with their time series of surface data...E. Swansonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16458400506150142847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-38780463024557337522016-05-06T06:17:01.109-04:002016-05-06T06:17:01.109-04:00Checking out who I just 'spammed' with my ...Checking out who I just 'spammed' with my tweet, and here I find the first post I see referencing motivated reasoning. Nice!<br /><br />Living on the same hillside since the early '60s I can confirm that the Clean Air Act had an impact on aresoles…it created the Asian "brown cloud" with its–last I knew (& it must be greater now)–15% reduction in solar incidence. But buttressing CapitalismFail is the role motivated reasoning plays for deniers, so finding data that might support uncertainty, is work-well-done. For the light-green climate hawk crowd, who feel understanding CapitalismFail is beneath them–and, apprapo to the function of motivated reasoning, a sense of being moral–a Scarlett O'Hara "I'll think about it tomorrow" gets too much creadance to be clear-headed thinking. <br /><br />CapitalismFail is a failed functional religion thanks to motivated reasoning./? https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2016/05/01/maybe-we-really-are-screwed/#comment-77853Greg Robiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07950711401314414276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47849548470752955692016-05-05T23:01:46.232-04:002016-05-05T23:01:46.232-04:00VV tweeted something along those lines, that irrig...VV tweeted something along those lines, that irrigation could depress temperature during the summerEliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-85835020566476741462016-05-05T16:42:33.294-04:002016-05-05T16:42:33.294-04:00Christy and McNider discuss their choice of data, ...Christy and McNider discuss their choice of data, yet, it appears that they forgot to actually list the sites which they used. There are 3 sites from the CRN on their list, perhaps those which are located near large lakes formed by TVA dams, such as Scottsboro, Guntersville and Muscle Shoals. Those lakes were added during the 1930's, so one might expect to find some cooling trend afterwards.<br /><br />Th their credit, C&M mention land use change, but don't discuss how their method would account for these slowly evolving effects. For example, the <a href="http://www.encyclopediaofalabama.org/article/h-1436" rel="nofollow">invasion of the Boll Weevil</a> from Texas across the Deep South resulted in the conversion of many farms into tree plantations. Having been raised in Atlanta before A/C, it was my experience that living in a forested area was considerably cooler in summer compared with the experience of open land.E. Swansonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16458400506150142847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-33658156963632156492016-05-05T00:29:34.574-04:002016-05-05T00:29:34.574-04:00A sad demonstration of the apparent correlation o...A sad demonstration of the apparent correlation of intelligence and longitudeTHE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-9425970121230466152016-05-04T13:32:38.769-04:002016-05-04T13:32:38.769-04:00Eli, there is literature that Hansen16 ignored.
O...Eli, there is literature that Hansen16 ignored.<br /><br />One can say that about most any paper.<br /><br />Having said that, this is an interesting game, finding relevant papers not cited.<br /><br />But 1st, I will admit that there reference list is very 'weak' and 'lame' as I see only one relevant reference to SE temperature/precipitation climatology ...<br /><br />Rogers, J. C., 2013: The 20th century cooling trend over the southeastern United States. Climate Dyn., 40, 341–352<br /><br />Here's another paper C&M16 missed (citing the above paper) ... <br />Trends in Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes for the Southeastern<br />United States: 1948–2012<br />https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Barry_Keim/publication/273496723_Trends_in_Daily_Temperature_and_Precipitation_Extremes_for_the_Southeastern_United_States_19482012/links/55493f4a0cf2ebfd8e3adaab.pdf<br /><br />Here's another 'warming hole' paper ...<br /><br />Attribution of the United States ‘‘warming hole’’: Aerosol indirect effect and precipitable water vapor<br />http://www.nature.com/articles/srep06929?WT.ec_id=SREP-704-20141111<br /><br />Google Scholar -> "United States" "Warming Hole" <-<br />https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%22United+States%22+%22Warming+Hole%22&btnG=&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C25<br />About 309 results (0.04 sec)<br /><br />I still stand by this statement from my previous post though ...<br /><br />"I think that C&M16 are attempting to do two long standing issues for Christy: (1) trash the models and (2) justify the TLT time series."<br />Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-74708809188125060902016-05-04T11:31:09.338-04:002016-05-04T11:31:09.338-04:00Could the "warming hole" also be the reg...Could the "warming hole" also be the region where irrigation has increased most in the last 132 years? The region has a nice-sized river to feed the irrigation. <br /><br />On average irrigation reduces temperatures by about 1°C (Cool et al., 2011). (Weather stations are more common in agricultural regions because they are important for argo-meteorology.)<br /><br />Benjamin I. Cook • Michael J. Puma • Nir Y. Krakauer. Irrigation induced surface cooling in the context of modern and increased greenhouse gas forcing. Clim Dyn (2011) 37:1587–1600, DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0932-xVictor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-14745555910240295772016-05-04T09:57:34.083-04:002016-05-04T09:57:34.083-04:00Everett, there is a literature that Christy and Mc...Everett, there is a literature that Christy and McNider ignored. EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-66269276502011108042016-05-04T09:41:18.622-04:002016-05-04T09:41:18.622-04:00Eli,
I'm sort of thinking that the Leibenspe...Eli, <br /><br />I'm sort of thinking that the Leibensperger is somewhat of a tangent to C&M16.<br /><br />Figure 6 of Leibensperger shows 'organic carbon' and that one almost makes sense, but then again IANAC, you are. I'm sort of thinking that that is somewhat representative of the moisture/precipitation that the Deep South receives from the GOM.<br /><br />I think that C&M16 are attempting to do two long standing issues for Christy: (1) trash the models and (2) justify the TLT time series.<br /><br />C&M16 only doing AL is, in their minds, a safe harbor, after all, if I'm not mistaken, Cristy is the AL state climatologist ...<br />http://nsstc.uah.edu/aosc/<br />"... providing climate data and research for the state and for the world."<br /><br />I don't expect the course scale of the CMIP5 models have the ability to properly couple the GOM to the SE USA. I'm pretty sure AL is not a good proxy for the whole world (particularly the 70% that is water).<br /><br />In some ways C&M16 are echoing the "Senior effect" in that anthropogenic land use changes are affecting mixing at the surface (e. g. nighttime temperatures). If that conjecture were true, then AL is a very poor place to plant that flag. The SE is still predominately rural. A;sp picking a region with a very low trend says nothing about areas like the Arctic that don't have a very low trend and are also extremely rural, last time I checked.<br /><br />But now you got me wanting to look at the CONUS temperature time series versus the CONUS TLT time series (gridded, but I'm such a n00b with the *.nc file format).Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-8337554673973363682016-05-04T09:03:47.354-04:002016-05-04T09:03:47.354-04:00So I suppose that Christy and McNider will be retr...So I suppose that Christy and McNider will be retracting as soon as possible?Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.com