tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post8093893119189876774..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Andy Lacis Writes to Steve KooninEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-85578342456862836582015-04-10T16:09:17.996-04:002015-04-10T16:09:17.996-04:00Steve Koonin'a suggestion that a few percent c...Steve Koonin'a suggestion that a few percent change in absolute temperature represents on problem displays blindingly obvious ignorance. While a change of 2% from an average of 288k is "only" 5.8k, that amount of cooling would place the Earth back into Ice Age conditions, like those which have dominated the Earth's history for the last 3+ million years. A change in the other direction, that is to say, warming, would have equally damaging impacts on humanity. <br /><br />That 288k average does not represent the temperatures in the tropics or during NH summers when humidity levels are high. Our bodies cool by evaporation and when the dew point temperature approaches 98.6F (37C), we overheat and die, even while sitting still in the shade. But, some of us must work outside and 35C could easily be lethal for those people.<br /><br />Consider that the sea surface temperature in the tropics can exceed 30C in some locations. There are already reports of people suffering and dying in today's climate when the dew points are high. If tropical SST's exceed 35C, that is, 2% added above the current local average, life may become impossible in some regions which exhibit high humidity. The effects on workers are not limited to heat stroke, as there is considerable recent concern about people who harvest sugarcane in Central America, then suffer kidney failure at a young age. Not to mention the impacts on tropical storm intensity and drought, which present an entirely different set of problems.<br /><br />Human civilization has flourished in a Goldilocks world of relatively stable temperature for almost 10,000 years after the last Ice Age. It looks to me like mankind is actually genetically predisposed to mess things up to the point that species suicide will be the result. As <a href="http://www.craigdilworth.com/too_smart_for_our_own_good.html" rel="nofollow">Craig Dilworth has written</a>, we're too smart for our own good...E. Swansonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16458400506150142847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-12982192862905784352015-04-10T14:19:17.537-04:002015-04-10T14:19:17.537-04:00"... an atmospheric CO2 level of 450 ppm as b...<i>"... an atmospheric CO2 level of 450 ppm as being incompatible with polar ice caps, a level that is expected to be reached by the end of this century."</i><br /><br />Actually, our current trajectory puts on target for 450 ppm by about 2035 (see for example IPCC WGI ch. 12 fig. 12.36)...Aunt Sallyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10971015193694299382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-44539200047951207492015-04-10T12:34:08.138-04:002015-04-10T12:34:08.138-04:00"Perhaps it's because they don't unde..."Perhaps it's because they don't understand the significance of our adaptation to Holocene and pre-Holocence temperature regimes..."<br /><br />I suspect this is the case too. It's why I've taken to emphasizing how the Holocene has been a relatively 'stable' climate to live in for the last 10K years or so, and how we've only developed niceties like "agriculture" and "civilization" and "writing" over the last 10K years or so. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15712416782270566112noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-61016719208898436372015-04-10T08:20:01.657-04:002015-04-10T08:20:01.657-04:00Very nice summary by Dr. Lacis.Very nice summary by Dr. Lacis.Barton Paul Levensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07630802738456749652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-87720410908900321872015-04-10T02:30:36.063-04:002015-04-10T02:30:36.063-04:00Like Dano I am a bit of a fan of the fever analogy...Like Dano I am a bit of a fan of the fever analogy for global warming, as there is a <i>rough</i> equivalence in the way that fever operates in the human body compared with how a mean system temperature increase modifies an ecosystem. The frustrating thing is that I've used the analogy for years and I don't think that I've ever once seen anyone in the "warming is good for us" brigade grok the significance. Perhaps it's because they don't understand the significance of our adaptation to Holocene and pre-Holocence temperature regimes...<br /><br />Although it's not applicable across all (or indeed perhaps even most) ecosystems, the scale to which I referred <a href="http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/12/warmer-oceans-matter.html?showComment=1417575388019#c4700998383528705081" rel="nofollow">at Sou's last year</a> might be worth repeating even in the face of this inability of contrarians to learn:<br /><br />"<i>...the amount of warming that the global ecosystem is experiencing is about as significant as if the same temperature anomaly was occurring in a eutherian mammal of the non-hibernating/æstivating sort. Half a degree Celsius is serious, and will affect the system, but it is not immediately lethal. A degree is cause for real concern for the ongoing functioning of the system. Two degrees is worse, seriously worse, and four degrees is basically goodbye to the system as you knew it.<br /><br />And if such an increase is serious for humans [and for non-human species and ecosystems] over hours or days, it no different when such warming takes decades at the global level and persists for centuries/millenia at the global level, as this is still less than the time frame in which genetic evolution and coadaptation processes are able to respond.</i>"<br /><br />This is one of the truly fundamental points that underlies the whole concern about global warming, and one that is still to filter through to the "Ahhh..." button in so many leaders' heads.Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-38512728667514799662015-04-09T21:12:33.405-04:002015-04-09T21:12:33.405-04:00In evaluating Koonin's claims regarding clima...In evaluating Koonin's claims regarding climate science it is important to keep in mind he is a <a href="https://xkcd.com/793/" rel="nofollow">theoretical physicist.</a>Raymond Arritthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04648714314250278353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-7970731608117320822015-04-09T18:07:36.175-04:002015-04-09T18:07:36.175-04:00It's already up at Reason in the exchange on R...It's already up at Reason in the exchange on Ron Bailley's fish slapping match with Monckton <br />( Ron has a salmon by the tail , Monckton has an anchovy by the gills)THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-1946120210910157012015-04-09T17:46:48.637-04:002015-04-09T17:46:48.637-04:00Ouch! That was pretty stern slap to the back of th...Ouch! That was pretty stern slap to the back of the head Andy delivered.<br /><br />It should be reposted and reposted and reposted on *every* climate site. <br /><br />Bravo Andy :)Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-56753184133943613622015-04-09T17:37:29.538-04:002015-04-09T17:37:29.538-04:00I like the '1% body temperature' analogy b...I like the '1% body temperature' analogy better than the '40% increase in medicine dosage' that I use.<br /><br />Best,<br /><br />DDanohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03709762632849004871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-72712183306668803692015-04-09T17:32:30.399-04:002015-04-09T17:32:30.399-04:00I find it sad that Koonan is now, as before, being...I find it sad that Koonan is now, as before, being admonished to start acting like a <i>real life</i> physicist and to think scientifically instead of out-of-his-ass-ically. <br /><br />Remember last year when his op-ed first hit the public, he claimed to have reviewed the evidence, models, and studies but it was clear he hadn't? Somehow he's scraped below the barrel's floor this year. <br /><br />It seems he has refused to learn, and no attempt to educate him (either by Lacis or Pierrehumbert) can turn him into a learner.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15712416782270566112noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-52631658620753064132015-04-09T16:46:48.202-04:002015-04-09T16:46:48.202-04:00In the days when FORTRAN stalked the Earth, one di...In the days when FORTRAN stalked the Earth, one dimensional models really were one dimensional.THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-7264691423079459942015-04-09T16:39:20.077-04:002015-04-09T16:39:20.077-04:00Great comment from Andy Lacis. Stupid question fr...Great comment from Andy Lacis. Stupid question from me, though. Why did the JASONs only get a 1W/m^2 change in flux at the surface? I have a suspicion that this might be obvious, but it's escaping me at the moment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com