tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post6870153582190316390..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: The Magic MomentEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-25501470849569659422015-12-05T22:54:17.599-05:002015-12-05T22:54:17.599-05:00"It would be impossible and foolhardy to rene..."It would be impossible and foolhardy to renegotiate this goal now."<br /><br />But that's what is under debate in Paris and COP 21. A majority of countries -- 108 -- want the guard-rail to be less than 1.5C. Includes German and France. Saudi Arabia objects. The 1.5 is in the latest (Dec 5) draft Paris Climate Accord but is contested. Stephen Leahyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13384320336564949714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-69831894014888438652015-12-02T15:05:27.039-05:002015-12-02T15:05:27.039-05:00One assumes Oliver Gedon would negotiate the force...One assumes Oliver Gedon would negotiate the force of gravity as he or his client is being tossed over a cliff. <br /><br />I am sure his he or the client would be happier with less acceleration and a better terminal velocity. jrkrideauhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04869979887929067657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-23430947186431509862015-12-02T10:52:56.501-05:002015-12-02T10:52:56.501-05:002C is not a goal.
Not, not, not.
2C is like a lin...2C is not a goal.<br />Not, not, not.<br /><br />2C is like a line painted on the highway -- along the edge of the driving lane we're traveling in. Maybe it's like a rumble strip, if we're in a rich county.<br /><br />Run over that very carefully, with good attention to recovery -- ok.<br /><br />Cross it inattentively and overcorrect -- not, not, not ok.<br /><br />Of course our politicians don't drive themselves, do they?<br />So they never took a driver training course teaching foresight, eh?<br /><br />They trust the chauffeurs -- the honest brokers.<br /><br />Pity, that.Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-27901966060509837322015-12-02T02:43:54.703-05:002015-12-02T02:43:54.703-05:00Observing how poorly we conduct ourselves in large...Observing how poorly we conduct ourselves in large groups, I have no idea how we can change our very natures and all work together in one common goal to launch a number of Apollo Projects to right this ship. <br /><br />Yes, yes, yes we have a number of good frameworks in which to work. But we've never come close to doing anything like this before. War bonds and Victory Gardens isn't even close. IMHO.<br /><br />.02<br /><br />Best,<br /><br />DDanohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03709762632849004871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-91095125114926178962015-12-01T23:51:56.082-05:002015-12-01T23:51:56.082-05:00Sorry Russell, I tried to calculate it but Excel j...Sorry Russell, I tried to calculate it but Excel just up and quit on me. I didn't know Excel could laugh. Really rather odd.<br /><br />Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15751040367339659805noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-56964475518008872942015-12-01T12:39:20.945-05:002015-12-01T12:39:20.945-05:00Bernard, re: "..the probability of nuclear wa... Bernard, re: "<i>..the probability of nuclear war will likely increase exponentially with every 0.1 °C that we warm the planet,</i><br /><br />For the benefit of non-lawyers, what might that exponent be?<br />THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42838840234372639592015-12-01T12:01:54.125-05:002015-12-01T12:01:54.125-05:00There simply is not time, it would open too many p...<i>There simply is not time, it would open too many possibilities for delay and mischief.</i><br /><br />Which is why we will assuredly see strenuous efforts to move the 2C goalposts. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-82739312574025830062015-12-01T11:43:15.823-05:002015-12-01T11:43:15.823-05:00How much carbon feedback will we see over the next...How much carbon feedback will we see over the next 30 years as a result of crossing the the 390 ppmv CO2 mark back in the 1990s? <br /><br />The 2C goal is based on inadequate models.<br /><br />With what we know now, we should set a goal that protects tundra and clathrates - call it 350 ppmve CO2. Meeting that goal is hard, and perhaps impossible, but it is a simple and straight forward goal, and the closer the world can get to that goal the better. <br /><br />A goal of 2C as calculated by current models is not protective of permafrost, clathrates, or ice sheets on a 50 year planning horizon from time of crossing the 1C mark.<br /><br />The models missed the changes in Arctic Sea Ice in the first 1C of warming. Now there is more water vapor in the atmosphere over the Arctic than there was 20 years ago. Water vapor is latent heat, and latent heat acts as a powerful greenhouse gas in the summer, and keeps everything warmer in the fall. This is the first step to a Arctic with a warm ocean.<br /><br />I no doubt that enough feedbacks have kicked in that we could cease all human carbon emissions today, and over the next 50 years we would still see the Earth warm to more than 2C as it comes to thermodynamic equilibrium with the forcing from 400 ppmv CO2 and all feedbacks. If we really want the 2C goal, then we needed to stop emitting carbon 50 years before reaching the 2C mark. Explain that to your policy makers! <br /><br />In 1970, Jay Forrester told us that explaining "lags" to policy makers would be our most important and most difficult task.Aaronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05150805906414546377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-13694980128721092742015-12-01T07:24:10.713-05:002015-12-01T07:24:10.713-05:00Gonna have to wait til Christmas to open Elis pack...Gonna have to wait til Christmas to open Elis packageEliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-77243710040388759312015-12-01T02:49:40.123-05:002015-12-01T02:49:40.123-05:00I think that we probably left behind about a decad...I think that we probably left behind about a decade ago any capacity to stay below two degrees. Most people in politics, business and laiety around the world still haven't really grokked what it means in ecological/social/geopolitical terms when that threshold is crossed, so I've started telling some of my unaware contact this:<br /><br /><b>...the probability of nuclear war will likely increase <i>exponentially</i> with every 0.1 °C that we warm the planet, once the consequences of that warming and resultant climate change are manifested</b>.<br /><br />That seems to get their attention. And that probability will interact (in an upward direction) with the limitations of resources occurring as a result of non-climate pressures.<br /><br />Martin Hellman estimates the lifetime risk of dying from a nuclear war at <a href="http://phys.org/news/2009-07-chance-nuclear-war-greater-stanford.html" rel="nofollow">around 10%</a>. Whether or not this is an accurate reflection of the figure it is certainly non-zero, and anything that escalates the risk of nuclear war over a human lifetime should be met with concern, even if the risks of the escalating factor itself are blithely ignored.<br /><br />We've put ourselves into a very big handbasket...Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-86813419880245047542015-12-01T01:38:53.767-05:002015-12-01T01:38:53.767-05:00Lawyers from Madison Avenue to K Street agree that...Lawyers from Madison Avenue to K Street agree that avoiding a two degree rise is worth <i>at least</i> twice the billing of not avoiding the one degree rise that happened before anybunny much noticed.THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.com