tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post6674018908561283636..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Open for CommentEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-32180195161183347332013-02-12T10:43:14.293-05:002013-02-12T10:43:14.293-05:00"Flat as a Pancake"
-- by Horatio Algera..."Flat as a Pancake"<br />-- by Horatio Algeranon (with some help from Aunt Jemima)<br /><br />Temperature statistics<br />Without the physics<br />Is like <a href="http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRfjLaOLTphnJCCP-IE90j81tKvoZRs59y3J_Ms6jCxcz5pGzjD" rel="nofollow">the spring</a><br />Without <a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cuj5yRT78yw/ULTKiCsxdOI/AAAAAAAABa8/a3GatufbzPs/s1600/WileECoyote.jpg" rel="nofollow">the fall</a><br />There's only one thing worse<br />In this universe<br />That's not any science at all.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-44402966556343297832013-02-12T07:08:12.665-05:002013-02-12T07:08:12.665-05:00Cue sound effect<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8E_zMLCRNg" rel="nofollow">Cue sound effect</a>J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-17765057368406744642013-02-11T17:29:59.602-05:002013-02-11T17:29:59.602-05:00> econometrics ... pets.com
Assessing "Ho...> econometrics ... pets.com<br /><br />Assessing "How much is that doggie in the window?" predates even the Internet.Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-14157479116728688662013-02-11T10:41:48.427-05:002013-02-11T10:41:48.427-05:00I recall the VS exchanges and in my recollection (...I recall the VS exchanges and in my recollection (s)he was left black and blue, anally speaking.<br /><br />And, what's more, the "random walk" nonsense has never raised its head again.<br /><br />Man with no NameAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-54490166505808245892013-02-11T03:51:16.408-05:002013-02-11T03:51:16.408-05:00"he did not, I repeat not suggest a random wa...<i>"he did not, I repeat not suggest a random walk"</i><br /><br />He did:<br /><br /><a href="http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2010/03/01/global-average-temperature-increase-giss-hadcru-and-ncdc-compared/#comment-1216" rel="nofollow">VS Says: March 4, 2010 at 13:54</a><br />"In other words, global temperature contains a stochastic rather than deterministic trend, and is statistically speaking, a random walk."J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47162639199357071672013-02-10T20:16:42.897-05:002013-02-10T20:16:42.897-05:00If Horatio takes requests, I suggest "Comfort...If Horatio takes requests, I suggest "Comfortably Dumb".<br /><br />Rib Smokin' BunnyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-49615910652123396202013-02-10T18:48:06.247-05:002013-02-10T18:48:06.247-05:00VS and the big brown Crayon
-- by Horatio Algerano...<br /><br />VS and the big brown Crayon<br />-- by Horatio Algeranon<br /><br />VS has a big Brown crayon<br />That leaves a Brownian track<br />He's on a trek to Randumb Land<br />And never will come back.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42670033439213341522013-02-10T18:25:45.112-05:002013-02-10T18:25:45.112-05:00The Quants
-- by Horatio Algeranon
They're on...The Quants<br />-- by Horatio Algeranon<br /><br />They're on a random walk<br />Down Wall Street, with a bottle.<br />The Quants, they love to talk,<br />But empty is their model.*<br /><br />*Their bottle too.<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-863298017541532552013-02-10T16:33:37.674-05:002013-02-10T16:33:37.674-05:00a_ray:
Your comment on econometrics is incorrect: ...a_ray:<br />Your comment on econometrics is incorrect: that had nothing to do with pets.com.<br /><br />John Masheynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-86704150611472171642013-02-10T16:12:26.057-05:002013-02-10T16:12:26.057-05:00Anon,
Just about completely wrong. Stats tells y...Anon, <br />Just about completely wrong. Stats tells you the significance of your results IF you have the right model. If not, you will simply fool yourself. <br /><br />As to the rest of your silliness:<br /><br />1)The null is simply a tool--it is necessary because statistical results are comparative rather than absolute.<br /><br />2)If prediction is unimportant then fit your 6 data points with a 6-parameter polynomial and declare victory.<br /><br />a_ray_in_dilbert_spacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-76450844940510934572013-02-10T15:59:14.654-05:002013-02-10T15:59:14.654-05:00dhogaza: "Such an important result would have...dhogaza: "Such an important result would have journal editors fawning over each other for the privilege of publishing it."<br /><br />May I suggest instead:<br /><br />"Such an important result would have journal editors resigning after having made the mistake of publishing it."<br /><br />That seems to happen rather frequently with climate science papers from economists and statisticians, although sometimes the editors are merely badly embarrassed.<br /><br />As pointed out above VS never even submitted anything to a journal. That's OK, though, as these Galtian ubermensch don't need no stinking journals to bend reality to their will. Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-2042244453367314892013-02-10T14:36:38.713-05:002013-02-10T14:36:38.713-05:00Lazy bunny,
I know it's a long thread, but it...Lazy bunny,<br /><br />I know it's a long thread, but it's your claim, so it's for you to back this up. You can search for "eduardo Says" to speed things up.<br /><br />Here's another quote from Zorita:<br /><br />> [T]he recent clustering of record annual temperatures is very unlikely in a long-term-persistence process (fractional differencing process), and therefore points to either a non-stationary or deterministic trend in the period analyzed. <b>This statistical analysis cannot discriminate between causes, as only temperature data were analyzed , not forcing data.</b> <br /><br />http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2010/03/01/global-average-temperature-increase-giss-hadcru-and-ncdc-compared/#comment-2079<br /><br />Would this count as evidence of what you're suggesting?<br /><br />You might prefer to find Eduardo's quote yourself. willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-30297764892197822442013-02-10T13:59:29.118-05:002013-02-10T13:59:29.118-05:00a_ray_in_dilbert_space said.
"The problem is ... a_ray_in_dilbert_space said.<br />"The problem is that the econometricians fundamentally do not understand that the goal of science is prediction, not mere explanation. So, meanwhile climate science marches on while all the denialists can manage is: "Oh, woe is me. It's all too complicated. It's all too uncertain!"<br /><br />Science works. Econometrics...[looks back at the 2009 collapse, sovereign debt and Pets.com]...not so much<br /><br />You guys really are stuck on stupid. Statistics tells you about the probability of your experiment's brush with the null hypothesis, not to predict the future. My, oh my!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-39555395101718690332013-02-10T13:58:25.304-05:002013-02-10T13:58:25.304-05:00Whatever><a href="http://rabett.blogspot.com/2012/07/good-answers.html" rel="nofollow">Whatever</a>>EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-56668239281598914212013-02-10T13:41:46.111-05:002013-02-10T13:41:46.111-05:00dhogaza: "2010 ... it is now 2013 ... and odd...dhogaza: "2010 ... it is now 2013 ... and oddly enough, physics-based climate science continues to march forward, unhindered by econometrics."<br /><br />THIS.<br /><br />The problem is that the econometricians fundamentally do not understand that the goal of science is prediction, not mere explanation. So, meanwhile climate science marches on while all the denialists can manage is: "Oh, woe is me. It's all too complicated. It's all too uncertain!"<br /><br />Science works. Econometrics...[looks back at the 2009 collapse, sovereign debt and Pets.com]...not so much.a_ray_in_dilbert_spacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-9670064257007584462013-02-10T13:34:39.133-05:002013-02-10T13:34:39.133-05:00J Bowers, if you had bothered to read he did not, ...J Bowers, if you had bothered to read he did not, I repeat not suggest a random walk. Only those incapable of understanding the discussion thought so. <br /><br />As for you dhogaza, I understand how you might feel. You and sod have a very rough time hanging in there. The Mannly thing to do would to admit you were thumped. Now, off with youAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-24087412813090141022013-02-10T13:09:44.948-05:002013-02-10T13:09:44.948-05:00So I'm sure anon can show us where VS publishe...So I'm sure anon can show us where VS published his astonishing statistical analysis which demolishes everything known about climate science.<br /><br /><br />Such an important result would have journal editors fawning over each other for the privilege of publishing it.<br /><br />Or was it just a case of blog mathurbation?<br /><br />You see, anon, it is easy to claim that all we know about climate physics is bunk. It is much harder to actually establish this as fact.<br /><br />2010 ... it is now 2013 ... and oddly enough, physics-based climate science continues to march forward, unhindered by econometrics.<br />dhogazanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-78519937679204334602013-02-10T12:52:15.940-05:002013-02-10T12:52:15.940-05:00* Not a Random Walk
* Still not
Still not seeing ...* <a href="http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/03/11/not-a-random-walk/" rel="nofollow">Not a Random Walk</a><br />* <a href="http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/03/16/still-not/" rel="nofollow">Still not</a><br /><br />Still not seeing VS smacking down anyone, just a lot of deniers at Bart's saying he did. Some people are easily pleased.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-66781926946592976512013-02-10T11:51:01.689-05:002013-02-10T11:51:01.689-05:00dhogaza, have you re-read your postings in that 20...dhogaza, have you re-read your postings in that 2010 blog. I would not boast about anything If I were you. You were smacked silly. And don't quote out of context. We say over and over, the physics is important, but the conclusions you draw from the data out of that physics is what is important. How thick are you. Mann, I hope you are not in a teaching role.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-19701499547416506642013-02-10T11:44:07.134-05:002013-02-10T11:44:07.134-05:00"Some people use statistics as a drunken man ..."Some people use statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts for support rather than illumination."<br /><a href="http://climateaudit.org/2006/10/04/the-georgia-tech-report-card/" rel="nofollow">source</a>J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-79522702988237207462013-02-10T10:31:34.479-05:002013-02-10T10:31:34.479-05:00"metzomagic, for some reason climate scientis..."metzomagic, for some reason climate scientists always bring up straw men arguments, like it is the physics that matters"<br /><br />This needs to be posted on a billboard somewhere.<br /><br />The fun thing about VS's work is that it leads to a statistical model predicting that in the next 50 years, the rise in global temps will be 0 +/- 1C. Which essentially makes it unfalsifiable in that timeframe ...<br />even a statistically significant rise (tested by ignoring his unit root claim) over that period of time lies within his "drunken walk" prediction so ... victory! Stats trumps physics!<br /><br /><br />dhogazanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-49058593594101285862013-02-10T09:53:12.838-05:002013-02-10T09:53:12.838-05:00J Bowers, you repeatedly miss the point. No one sa...J Bowers, you repeatedly miss the point. No one says don't do the science. It is how you treat the data once the science is done that really matters. It is truly amazing that needs to be pointed out.<br /><br />Willard, it was a 30 something day blog.. Go read it, it is there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42149609493344479842013-02-10T09:34:30.358-05:002013-02-10T09:34:30.358-05:00Doing the maths without doing the science is not d...Doing the maths without doing the science is not doing the science.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-2390739002172725232013-02-10T09:19:45.375-05:002013-02-10T09:19:45.375-05:00metzomagic, for some reason climate scientists alw...metzomagic, for some reason climate scientists always bring up straw men arguments, like it is the physics that matters, not the stats. Sure physics matters but not for the purposes being discussed. It matters not a wit where the data comes from, whether from physics or grocery sales numbers. It is how you treat the data and form observations and conclusions using state-of-the art statistical reasoning that really matters. Climate prophets, like Eli, really need to learn and accept this or no one is going to take them seriously.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-76637780387080930152013-02-10T09:11:59.580-05:002013-02-10T09:11:59.580-05:00> Zorita corrected on the spot and apologies fo...> Zorita corrected on the spot and apologies for the mistakes in his recent paper.<br /><br />A quote would be nice.<br /><br />Here's one:<br /><br />> With all respect, to keep this comment short, it seems that you did not read that GRL paper, and perhaps no one of the commenters here did. That GRL paper was not about ‘random walk’ or ‘unit root’ whatsoever. We tested the H0 hypothesis that the global annual mean temperature could be represented by a non-deterministic fractional-differenced process- not a random walk- and thus stationary.<br /><br />http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2010/03/01/global-average-temperature-increase-giss-hadcru-and-ncdc-compared/#comment-2068willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.com