tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post4994642444233348213..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: McArdle messaging messEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-13872437745450009592016-06-12T17:35:02.706-04:002016-06-12T17:35:02.706-04:00Coincidentally, there's a post at realclimate ...Coincidentally, there's a post at realclimate on conservatives and messaging.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/06/boomerangs-versus-javelins-the-impact-of-polarization-on-climate-change-communication/" rel="nofollow">http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/06/boomerangs-versus-javelins-the-impact-of-polarization-on-climate-change-communication/</a><br /><br />A slightly depressing read, recommending in the activists' arrows pointing at lukewarmers and the politically casual rather than died-in the wool Republicans (yah, it's an article on US political identity - dunno if that translates to other places).barryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12419101193566520809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-66249033111812784572016-06-11T19:00:27.751-04:002016-06-11T19:00:27.751-04:00Brian, maybe that's right-wing proclivities. S...Brian, maybe that's right-wing proclivities. She is "a pessimist on the prospect of collective action on climate change," which chimes with cynical attitudes across the political spectrum, including in our own 'tribe.'barryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12419101193566520809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-33887372122240666342016-06-11T17:21:16.329-04:002016-06-11T17:21:16.329-04:00No worries, Barry, his snark is worse than his sm...No worries, Barry, his snark is worse than his smite.THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-39842001286984722632016-06-11T12:38:44.687-04:002016-06-11T12:38:44.687-04:00Barry, that link you gave to where McArdle said wh...Barry, that link you gave to where McArdle said what she wants to happen to solve climate change is interesting. It's not far out of range of realistic opinion. She even says "maybe geoengineering" and if you emphasize the "maybe" aspect, and as an act of desperation rather than a convenient crutch, then that's reasonable.<br /><br />What she doesn't say is what government policies should be to encourage the solution.Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09301230860904555513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-24745800345178557442016-06-11T06:19:57.577-04:002016-06-11T06:19:57.577-04:00Yea verily, smiting the pagans one post at a time....Yea verily, smiting the pagans one post at a time.barryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12419101193566520809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-30845588812269034122016-06-10T21:25:42.627-04:002016-06-10T21:25:42.627-04:00God's teeth, he raveth mightily.God's teeth, he raveth mightily.THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-38666519661470792072016-06-10T18:32:33.815-04:002016-06-10T18:32:33.815-04:00Well barry, I'm afraid to say, that when faced...Well barry, I'm afraid to say, that when faced with multiple severe existential threats as humanity is right now, you're token gestures are far from being even close to enough. What humanity needs to do is STAND DOWN immediately, clamp down on nonsense violent media, tax the freakin churches, and implement mandatory birth control. And that's just the start of it. What really needs to be done is that your culture needs to be destroyed. It's bullshit. I don't really think you have the right stuff. mConsidering you are bordering on science denial.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-16091290830991400802016-06-10T17:42:02.474-04:002016-06-10T17:42:02.474-04:00I recycle, turn off lights that aren't being u...I recycle, turn off lights that aren't being used, take public transport, and one of my primary voting choices is for the party that promises to do most about mitigating CO2 emissions (I'm voting for the Greens in a few weeks). My view is that while climate sensitivity has a range it's best to be prudent and take the worst case scenarios as a serious risk and plan accordingly.<br /><br />Most often I get called an alarmist. Tribalism is rife.barryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12419101193566520809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-90442903542275119032016-06-10T08:58:14.813-04:002016-06-10T08:58:14.813-04:00Barry, when one has an in excess of 0.5 Watts per ...Barry, when one has an in excess of 0.5 Watts per square meter energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere cause by in excess of 400 ppm concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide and rising at 3 ppm per year on a life and carbon based civilization bearing smallish terrestrial planet, inhabited by in excess of seven billion delusional nutjobs (and rising fast) - that's not a 'risk' of catastrophe, that a severe existential astrophysical and astrobiological 'threat'. And that's just the start of your children's problems. You are a delusional lukewarmist nutjob. People like you and Ms. McArdle are not the solution, you are the problem here. This is science speaking directly to you. You are not listening.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-4681273888991221822016-06-10T07:05:23.475-04:002016-06-10T07:05:23.475-04:00I see Brian, not E Rabett, wrote the article.I see Brian, not E Rabett, wrote the article.barryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12419101193566520809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-16383316675516655902016-06-10T06:50:51.076-04:002016-06-10T06:50:51.076-04:00...insults flung at the scientific community...
S...<i>...insults flung at the scientific community...</i><br /><br />She doesn't mention the scientific community. Is that even implied?<br /><br />She's not wrong about the tribalism, "apostles and heretics," nor that shooting over the parapets is unhelpful. Seems to be some of that in Brer Rabbett's article.<br /><br /><i>...mad at the rest of us that her tribe is wrong...</i><br /><br />The tribe that "support[s] action on climate change for the same reason [they] buy homeowner’s, life and disability insurance: because the potential for catastrophe is large"?<br /><br /><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-04-08/subpoenaed-into-silence-on-global-warming" rel="nofollow">https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-04-08/subpoenaed-into-silence-on-global-warming</a><br /><br />Looks to me like she agrees there's a risk and has a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2014-09-19/fixing-climate-change-will-never-be-free" rel="nofollow">right-wing</a> take on it/solutions (innovation/renewables/geoengineering).<br /><br />Lukewarmism as described in the referenced article is simply wishful thinking based on talking points. I'd like to have seen that rebutted.barryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12419101193566520809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-12672392633420021952016-06-09T17:58:04.555-04:002016-06-09T17:58:04.555-04:00I should have said hard to find in an English depa...I should have said hard to find in an English department.THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-91900693364880968892016-06-09T07:28:14.140-04:002016-06-09T07:28:14.140-04:00"Econmics: lacking conservation laws, it'..."<i>Econmics: lacking conservation laws, it's hard, but actually, there are some pretty good economists</i>..."<br /><br />Indeed, and there's an entire discipline that's been around for almost a century, and active for half a one.<br /><br />Tom Odum and Malte Faber are two, from different corners, who come to mind. There are many more. Inspiring thinkers...<br /><br />And it's saddening and frustrating that the fundamental principles that they point out are simply too unpalatable for the current system to accept.Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-78500196058666207342016-06-09T07:23:14.362-04:002016-06-09T07:23:14.362-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-81120427918532768842016-06-08T23:32:33.848-04:002016-06-08T23:32:33.848-04:00A numerate plagiarist is hard to find.A numerate plagiarist is hard to find.THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-16604859766987079152016-06-08T19:20:12.608-04:002016-06-08T19:20:12.608-04:00OK, I looked up Megan McArdle in Wikipedia because...OK, I looked up Megan McArdle in Wikipedia because I didn't know who she was. <br />Her background is in literature Fiction. So I shouldn't have bene surprised that the numbers in her essays are made up. In the sciences you're not supposed to make up numbers. OK, OK sometimes you research them out of somebody else's writing, but then the numbers are dug up and not made up. And you're supposed to cite the source.<br /><br />Of course some bigfoot pundits make stuff up. That's why Evans and Novak were dubbed "Errors and No Facts"<br /><br /> John Farleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01589237239187934891noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-79949834378027934472016-06-08T14:30:33.352-04:002016-06-08T14:30:33.352-04:00Econmics: lacking conservation laws, it's hard...Econmics: lacking conservation laws, it's hard, but actually, there are some pretty good economists, who acknowledge challenges and uncertainties along with need to use models we have and keep improving them, rather than waiting for perfection.<br />Professors Stephen Polasky ( U MN) and Michael Hanemann (AZ State U) are both Members of the NAS, and IMHO did a fine job in Minnesota Social Coat of Carbon case. <br /><br />Their opponents: not so fine:<br /><a href="http://www.desmogblog.com/2016/06/07/peabodys-outlier-gang-couldnt-shoot-straight" rel="nofollow">Peabody's Outlier Gang Couldn't Shoot Straight In Minnesota Carbon Case, Judge Rebuffs Happer, Lindzen, Spencer, Mendelsohn, Bezdek</a><br /><br /><br /><br />JohnMasheyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08174651130367553996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-88343327982115670212016-06-08T11:12:54.422-04:002016-06-08T11:12:54.422-04:00PPS: http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/...PPS: http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/rants/nothing-like-this-will-be-buil.html<br /><br />"... although it's one of the safest and most energy-efficient civilian power reactors ever built it's a technological dead-end, that there won't be any more of them, and that when it shuts down in thirty or forty years' time this colossal collision between space age physics and victorian plumbing will be relegated to a footnote in the history books. "Energy too cheap to meter" it ain't, but as a symbol of what we can achieve through engineering it's hard to beat."Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-88648290332741987552016-06-08T10:55:09.475-04:002016-06-08T10:55:09.475-04:00PS for Russell, yes, there are indeed wackos out o...PS for Russell, yes, there are indeed wackos out on the "left" side of the political spectrum making up wildly wrong shit about nuclear power -- hell, look at http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/12/declassified-u-s-government-report-week-fukushima-accident-100-total-spent-fuel-released-atmosphere-unit-4.html for the "we're all dooooooomed" approach to informing the public.<br /><br />I'm not claiming I have any answer.<br /><br />Like the "Car Talk" guys said to a caller, after getting something wrong: "I wish we were smarter"<br />Like their caller replied to them: "I wish you were too, guys."Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-35746093455029278592016-06-08T10:50:48.704-04:002016-06-08T10:50:48.704-04:00Just think of all the expense avoided by not build...Just think of all the expense avoided by not building out all those planned Gen1 nuclear plants before experience accumulated showing the flaws in the design.<br /><br />Well, but think of all the expense actually avoided by not upgrading the Gen1 plants to fix the problems as experience revealed them. Nobody could afford to run these things if they were brought up to date.<br /><br />Hey, a little risk, a little gamble ...<br /><br />Sometimes delay is the most effective form of denial.<br /><br />It's a shame about people, but as usual, we couldn't be convinced to get the design right before building a bunch.<br /><br />"Hey, what could go wrong?"Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-68838739606940614422016-06-08T09:14:49.840-04:002016-06-08T09:14:49.840-04:00Exponential growth ends.
Sometime before the mass...Exponential growth ends.<br /><br />Sometime before the mass of the universe has been all converted to people, the population growth will end. <br /><br />That is the easy question. The hard question is when and how? A rational, soft, stable and voluntary limit with little overshoot while maintaining or improving quality of life is far better than hitting a hard limit followed by a crash and collapse of civilization.<br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-20453791662634669462016-06-08T03:13:02.073-04:002016-06-08T03:13:02.073-04:00As for economists, well, I could make some comment...As for economists, well, I could make some comments but I don't want to invoke the Beetlejuice...Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-37193702242959763312016-06-08T03:10:37.130-04:002016-06-08T03:10:37.130-04:00jrkrideau, indeed...
At least with an astrologica...jrkrideau, indeed...<br /><br />At least with an astrological prognostication there is at the least a chance of random coincidence of prediction with result - for example today I met a tall, dark stranger - whereas the pronouncements of denialists and contrarians are consistently almost completely wrong.<br /><br />It takes a special sort of shamelessness to be more wrong than even random chance would allow, and to not even blink in the face of it.<br /><br />My sincere apologies to astrologers everywhere, who are more correct than climate science deniers.Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47838758491205792972016-06-07T13:59:15.754-04:002016-06-07T13:59:15.754-04:00@ Bernard J.
You are being too hard on astrology....@ Bernard J.<br /><br />You are being too hard on astrology. <br /><br /><i>The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.</i><br /> <b>John Kenneth Galbraith</b>jrkrideauhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04869979887929067657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-17099400912847757702016-06-07T13:32:44.721-04:002016-06-07T13:32:44.721-04:00We've all seen this sort of ruckus before: hyp...We've all seen this sort of ruckus before: hyped media accounts of quotidian models - econometric, population, climate, whatever-- lead to declarations of a Crisis or Existenial Threat by ( insert year ending in 50 or 00)<br /><br />When the system being modeled fails to deliver the exponential goods on time, whichever side of K-Street is on the case adds a decade or a century to the timeline, and issues a new press release saying, <i>See- they got the sign of the effect right!</i>, and those doing the work go on reading the literature and dutifully adjusting the parameter base.<br /><br />Vis a vis the IPCC, we are in the third yada yada iteration of this bemusing process.<br />THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.com