tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post4586466813415997499..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Modern Anthropogenic Global Warming in 5 minutesEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-52033321541762277042012-07-11T18:38:43.362-04:002012-07-11T18:38:43.362-04:00Get ready to rub your eyes in disbelief.
FOX News...Get ready to rub your eyes in disbelief.<br /><br /><a href="http://video.foxnews.com/v/1729695908001/climate-scientist-explains-record-temperatures-/" rel="nofollow">FOX News: Climate Scientist Explains Record Temperatures.</a><br /><br />Ummm... Michael Mann, interviewed by Alan Colmes. Not a Heartland fellow or Pat Michaels in sight.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-77651873090901231182012-07-09T11:15:19.637-04:002012-07-09T11:15:19.637-04:00Yes please Eli, if it isn't too much trouble. ...Yes please Eli, if it isn't too much trouble. <br /><br />BBDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-61480798143304837192012-07-08T18:58:09.516-04:002012-07-08T18:58:09.516-04:00Definitely a yep. Please.Definitely a yep. Please.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-32947780321377639772012-07-08T17:33:51.561-04:002012-07-08T17:33:51.561-04:00Would anybunny be interested in the companion piec...Would anybunny be interested in the companion piece by Georg Hoffman?EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-36025118750589785672012-07-08T15:59:54.096-04:002012-07-08T15:59:54.096-04:00I wonder if Eunice has read and carefully consider...I wonder if Eunice has read and carefully considered Jörg Zimmermann's discussion of Shakun et al. (2012) that Eli posted above on 05 July?<br /><br />BBDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-44714388107518995942012-07-08T12:39:42.150-04:002012-07-08T12:39:42.150-04:00Eunice is a typical "lukewarmer". It ig...Eunice is a typical "lukewarmer". It ignores the reality of drought and mistakes fetid for fertile. Dumb.a_ray_in_dilbert_spacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-52403541166660845152012-07-08T10:32:00.284-04:002012-07-08T10:32:00.284-04:00"US CO2 emissions are decreasing."
Geog..."US CO2 emissions are decreasing."<br /><br />Geographically from the USA, yes, but globally are they really? How much has been offshored? Would you claim a financially successful US company using factories in China to make its products is actually bankrupt? <br /><br />As for benefits from more warming, your confidence could be somewhat misplaced.<br /><br /><a href="https://newanthropocene.wordpress.com/2011/06/21/requiem-for-the-sea-state-of-the-seas-report-concludes-negative-changes-to-the-oceans-exceed-ipccs-worst-case-scenarios/" rel="nofollow">Requiem for the sea: State of the Seas report concludes “negative changes” to the oceans exceed IPCCs worst case scenarios.</a><br /><br />Main points from the PDF of Rogers, A.D. & Laffoley, D.d’A. 2011. International Earth system expert workshop on ocean stresses and impacts. Summary report. IPSO Oxford, 18 pp. <br /><br />• Human actions have resulted in warming and acidification of the oceans and are now causing increased hypoxia. <br /><br />• The speeds of many negative changes to the ocean are near to or are tracking the worst-‐case scenarios from IPCC and other predictions. Some are as predicted, but many are faster than anticipated, and many are still accelerating.<br /> <br />• The magnitude of the cumulative impacts on the ocean is greater than previously understood <br /><br />• Timelines for action are shrinking.<br /><br />• Resilience of the ocean to climate change impacts is severely compromised by the other stressors from human activities, including fisheries, pollution and habitat destruction.<br /><br />• Ecosystem collapse is occurring as a result of both current and emerging stressors.<br /><br />• The extinction threat to marine species is rapidly increasing. <br /><br />The participants concluded that not only are we already experiencing severe declines in many species to the point of commercial extinction in some cases, and an unparalleled rate of regional extinctions of habitat types (eg mangroves and seagrass meadows), but we now face losing marine species and entire marine ecosystems, such as coral reefs, within a single generation. Unless action is taken now, the consequences of our activities are at a high risk of causing, through the combined effects of climate change, overexploitation, pollution and habitat loss, the next globally significant extinction event in the ocean. It is notable that the occurrence of multiple high intensity stressors has been a pre-requisite for all the five global extinction events of the past 600 million years (Barnosky et al., 2009).<br /><br />* <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/328/5980/899.abstract" rel="nofollow">Carbon Dioxide Enrichment Inhibits Nitrate Assimilation in Wheat and Arabidopsis</a>. Bloom et al (2010).<br />* <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1960" rel="nofollow">Sharply increased insect herbivory during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum</a>. (Currano 2007)<br />* <a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080211172638.htm" rel="nofollow">Insects Will Feast, Plants Will Suffer: Ancient Leaves Show Affect Of Global Warming.</a><br />* <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/298/5600/1987.short" rel="nofollow">Grassland Responses to Global Environmental Changes Suppressed by Elevated CO2</a>. (Shaw 2007)<br />* <a href="http://resources.metapress.com/pdf-preview.axd?code=32370807846477k5&size=largest" rel="nofollow">Photosynthetic inhibition after long-term exposure to elevated levels of carbon dioxide</a>. (DeLucia 1985)<br />* <a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080324173612.htm" rel="nofollow">Insects Take A Bigger Bite Out Of Plants In A Higher Carbon Dioxide World</a>.<br />* <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFGU6qvkmTI&feature=player_embedded" rel="nofollow">Crock of the Week - Don't it make my Green World Brown</a>J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-53726793525277343282012-07-06T13:44:32.220-04:002012-07-06T13:44:32.220-04:00@ Eunice
You are repeating yourself without appar...@ Eunice<br /><br />You are repeating yourself without apparently reading the references provided. Repeating yourself is not sufficient. Reading is both a courtesy and necessary for a productive exchange. <br /><br />I've already told you that the following statement is incorrect:<br /><br /><i>Northern and Arctic summers will be much warmer than present for most of the next one hundred thousand years</i><br /><br />Your only chance to defend this extraordinary claim was to provide references. You have refused. Now everybody knows you are bullshitting.<br /><br />BBDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-27891964520553305862012-07-06T13:28:29.793-04:002012-07-06T13:28:29.793-04:00Dilbert,
All the other droughts in the past were ...Dilbert,<br /><br />All the other droughts in the past were natural, but this one is CO2?<br /><br />euniceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-83876728871877726822012-07-06T13:26:35.663-04:002012-07-06T13:26:35.663-04:00BBD:
Google a little harder - global SO2 emission...BBD:<br /><br />Google a little harder - global SO2 emissions have been declining for more than a decade. This means rather than cooling, the effect from change in SO2 should have been additional warming.<br /><br />You may also note - I affirmed, not denied AGW - emissive gasses should tend to impose warming. However, exaggerating the extent, impacts, certainty, and risks versus benefits is hysteria, not science.<br /><br />You can google solar variation or Milankovitch quite ably to observe future intensity and duration of summer sunshine in the NH and Arctic.<br /><br />The HCO had millenia of such longer, hotter summers (and commensurate colder winters) in the NH but this was a time of human advancement. <br /><br />Eunice<br />and evidently Polar bear survivalAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-76389106913112077152012-07-06T13:01:53.251-04:002012-07-06T13:01:53.251-04:00The same mix would work for CO2
With carbon marke...<i>The same mix would work for CO2</i><br /><br />With carbon markets failing, I guess there are a lot more hot air hypocrites than true believers.<br /><br />But wasting a lot of money to reduce beneficial gasses is a pretty hard sell.<br /><br />Eunice.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-28173250632517846122012-07-06T12:57:17.006-04:002012-07-06T12:57:17.006-04:00@ Eunice
SO2 has been declining for more than a d...@ Eunice<br /><br /><i>SO2 has been declining for more than a decade do keep up.</i><br /><br />Ah, not so. First, remember that the US is not the world. Second, there is Chinese coal (<a href="http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2009/2009GL039008.shtml" rel="nofollow">Hofmann et al. 2009</a>). Then there's equatorial volcanism and the Brewer-Dobson circulation(!) (<a href="http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011GL047563.shtml" rel="nofollow">Vernier et al. 2011</a>). I do take the point that clean air legislation reduced SO2 emissions somewhat up to the 1990s, quite possibly strengthening the 1998 El Nino (that's that huge spike in GAT with a giant cherry perched on top). But there's strong evidence that stratospheric sulphate loading has increased since. <br /><br /><i>And ocean consumption of thermal energy is an argument for temperature rise to continue to be minimal.</i><br /><br />It's not a let-out clause. Actually, this is interesting. The scientific debate is exemplified by Trenberth on the one hand and Hansen on the other. Trenberth <a href="https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/5364/deep-oceans-can-mask-global-warming-decade-long-periods" rel="nofollow">argues</a> that energy is accumulating in the deep ocean and this will periodically slow or even halt warming. Hansen suggests that the negative aerosol forcing has been underestimated and that most models over-estimate the rate at which heat perturbations are mixed into the deep ocean (<a href="http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2011/2011_Hansen_etal.pdf" rel="nofollow">Hansen et al. 2011</a>). <br /><br />It's perfectly possible that both arguments have merit. There's lots to sort out. But nobody serious claims that the last decade of flat global mean temperatures 'falsifies AGW'. <br /><br /><i>Yes, Northern and Arctic summers will be much warmer than present for most of the next one hundred thousand years unless you've concocted a new mechanism whereby increased insolation is irrelevant to surface temperature.</i><br /><br />Repeating something incorrect does not fix the problem. But perhaps references will clear this up. Where are you getting this from?<br /><br /><i>And yes the HCO is extremely relevant as a measure of what humans and all life on the planet experienced.</i><br /><br />The HCO/HTM ended ~5ka. Present concern is what a *rapid >2C warming* will do to established, large-scale human agriculture, coastal populations and ecosystems unable to move or adapt fast enough to cope with rapid warming. This was false equivalence yesterday and it's false equivalence today.<br /><br />BBDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-63978950451649956462012-07-06T09:18:37.998-04:002012-07-06T09:18:37.998-04:00Eunice,
At present 54% of the Continental US is in...Eunice,<br />At present 54% of the Continental US is in drought. And the El Nino just started this month. Does that sound negligible to you?a_ray_in_dilbert_spacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-157339823319915852012-07-06T02:12:04.784-04:002012-07-06T02:12:04.784-04:00Why yes, SO2 has been declining for decades becaus...Why yes, SO2 has been declining for decades because of effective (somewhat) regulation and a cap and trade market many places. The same mix would work for CO2<br /><br />Do you do poework?EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-45050939137456240712012-07-06T00:29:31.587-04:002012-07-06T00:29:31.587-04:00BBD
SO2 has been declining for more than a decade...BBD<br /><br />SO2 has been declining for more than a decade do keep up.<br /><br />And ocean consumption of thermal energy is an argument for temperature rise to continue to be minimal.<br /><br />Yes, Northern and Arctic summers will be much warmer than present for most of the next one hundred thousand years unless you've concocted a new mechanism whereby increased insolation is irrelevant to surface temperature.<br /><br />And yes the HCO is extremely relevant as a measure of what humans and all life on the planet experienced.<br /><br />Getting emotional and exaggerating climate change and impacts may be appealing, but the reality is much more boring.<br /><br />Eunice.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-14370998997806099702012-07-05T18:35:19.398-04:002012-07-05T18:35:19.398-04:00@ Eunice
The Keeling curve is not really a pretty...@ Eunice<br /><br />The Keeling curve is not really a pretty picture at all. If you risk a peek at the link, you will see why. The object of the game is to stop the wiggly line going up, and up, and up...<br /><br />US inaction has global policy ramifications. It's not what you might call leading by example. Here in the UK we have do at least have the rhetoric all shipshape and Bristol fashion. <br /><br /><i>Dismiss if you wish, but that won't change the facts</i><br /><br />Or we could look at it another way...<br /><br /><i>The observed temperature trends since 1979 are less than the 'Low End' Scenario of IPPC4</i><br /><br />Aerosols and oceans. Do keep up :-)<br /><br /><i>The observed temperature trends since 1979 are less than Hansen scenario C.</i><br /><br />Well, ModelE was a teeny bit crude and it did have a sensitivity of 4.2C. You could say that it did surprisingly well and the results support an equilibrium sensitivity of ~3C - which is generally held to be the most likely value these days.<br /><br /><i>The observed temperature trends since 1979 are less than the A1B multi model mean.</i><br /><br />Aerosols and oceans. Give it time.<br /><br /><i>Orbital variations will yield much warmer than present Northern and especially Arctic summers for most of the next one hundred thousand years.</i><br /><br />Yes, the 400ka eccentricity minimum is with us again, and yes, the Holocene could be a prolonged interglacial like MIS 11. No, Northern and Arctic summers will not be 'much warmer than the present' for 'most of the next 100ka'. <br /><br />Poor Milutin will be spinning in his grave so fast he won't know his precession from his obliquity. <br /><br /><i>deny if you wish, but these are the facts.</i><br /><br />In addition to the other stuff, you assert, as a fact, that warming will be beneficial and insignificant compared to (presumably) Holocene variation. Which means that you don't really get it. Waving the Holocene Thermal Maximum around as if it mattered in this context is to miss the point to an absurd degree. This isn't the place for a long, pointless 'discussion' that won't go anywhere anyway, so let's leave it at that.<br /><br />BBDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-288413934277231872012-07-05T15:48:32.984-04:002012-07-05T15:48:32.984-04:00BBD:
Of course it's your own business what yo...BBD:<br /><br /><i>Of course it's your own business what you care about. But please don't mind if people who understand that this is but the overture dismiss you as a witless pillock.</i><br /><br />Dismiss if you wish, but that won't change the facts that:<br /><br />The observed temperature trends since 1979 are less than the 'Low End' Scenario of IPPC4<br /><br />The observed temperature trends since 1979 are less than Hansen scenario C.<br /><br />The observed temperature trends since 1979 are less than the A1B multi model mean.<br /><br />The observed temperature trends since 1979 are close to the trend from 1910 through 1945 which we may call more 'natural'.<br /><br />The contemporary 'warming' remains small compared to the climatic variation of the Holocene Climatic Optimum, which corresponds to the popularly conceived founding of civilization.<br /><br />Orbital variations will yield much warmer than present Northern and especially Arctic summers for most of the next one hundred thousand years.<br /><br />The benefits of a warming planet, for however brief we may be able to help advance it, may very well outweigh the detriments, but neither are necessarily significant given the variations humans ( and all species ) have encountered.<br /><br />deny if you wish, but these are the facts.<br /><br />EuniceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-1432398596990216042012-07-05T15:34:00.546-04:002012-07-05T15:34:00.546-04:00BBD:
But Eunice, dear, the US is not the world. A...BBD:<br /><i><br />But Eunice, dear, the US is not the world. And *global* emissions are rising as rapidly as ever. Here's a pretty picture for us to marvel at together. <br /></i><br /><br />I guess you missed the author bemoaning US inaction. Oh well.<br /><br /><i><br />We can also pause to recollect that US emissions are falling because: <br /><br />- its economy is all buggered up<br /><br />- much has been offshored to Johnny Foreigner</i><br /><br />Pause a little longer and you'll take in the fact that CO2 and economic well being appear linked. You might even reflect that increasing energy costs are likely to further 'bugger' up.<br />You might even observe that increasing US energy costs would only further offshoring.<br /><br />Eunice.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-61690112821963090502012-07-05T15:21:43.618-04:002012-07-05T15:21:43.618-04:00Off-topic, but in the aftermath of the release of ...Off-topic, but in the aftermath of the release of utterly disgusting abusive emails sent to Dr Phil Jones of CRU and others, the Skeptical Science website is sending him a supportive letter. You can add your comment and 'signature' here ...<br /><br />http://www.skepticalscience.com/Nil_Illegitimi.htmlPhil Clarkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15744659873337514317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-81707422018939540462012-07-05T14:08:26.804-04:002012-07-05T14:08:26.804-04:00The oddly familiar-sounding 'Eunice' bring...The oddly familiar-sounding 'Eunice' brings us some very familiar false equivalence:<br /><br /><i>US CO2 emissions are decreasing</i><br /><br />But Eunice, dear, the US is not the world. And *global* emissions are rising as rapidly as ever. Here's a <a href="http://woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2" rel="nofollow">pretty picture</a> for us to marvel at together. We can also pause to recollect that US emissions are falling because: <br /><br />- its economy is all buggered up<br /><br />- much has been offshored to Johnny Foreigner<br /><br /><i>It is probably time for hysterics to stop hiding behind answering "Is it warming?" (It is) and seriously be held accountable for answering 'How much?' and 'Who cares?'</i><br /><br />Of course it's your own business what you care about. But please don't mind if people who understand that this is but the overture dismiss you as a witless pillock.<br /><br />BBDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-4172729066883809102012-07-05T13:34:15.372-04:002012-07-05T13:34:15.372-04:00Hmm..
US CO2 emissions are decreasing.
Doing not...Hmm..<br /><br />US CO2 emissions are decreasing.<br /><br />Doing nothing seems to be better than doing something.<br /><br />It is probably time for hysterics to stop hiding behind answering "Is it warming?" (It is) and seriously be held accountable for answering 'How much?' and 'Who cares?'<br /><br />( not much and and only hysterics )<br /><br />EuniceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-82243366186165258252012-07-05T09:53:08.424-04:002012-07-05T09:53:08.424-04:00Not getting hotter? The last 12 months are the hot...Not getting hotter? The last 12 months are the hottest on record?Jeffrey Davishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966839006518642902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-2076617561794067252012-07-05T05:19:14.118-04:002012-07-05T05:19:14.118-04:00@ Hardy Cross
It's not getting hotter.
Whoev...@ Hardy Cross<br /><br /><i>It's not getting hotter.</i><br /><br />Whoever said the warming would be monotonous? Natural variation hasn't stopped. That's just wishful thinking (or perhaps outright denial) on your part.<br /><br />Ye olde long term <a href="http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/p/climate-plotter.html#HxB1?HxG=%5B%5B1900,2011,'',%5B0,0%5D,0,%5B%5D%5D,%5B%5B%5B-0.6428,0.3772%5D,0,0,%5B1979,2000%5D%5D%5D,%5B%5B%5B1,0%5D,28,0,%5B4,%5B1900,2011%5D%5D,0%5D%5D%5D" rel="nofollow">trend</a> is the thing to watch. <br /><br />BBDAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-28242903335112833952012-07-05T05:14:46.365-04:002012-07-05T05:14:46.365-04:00I'm not surprised that the top bunnies weeded ...I'm not surprised that the top bunnies weeded out the oogie-boogie ad for hocus-pocus, but now my Q.E.D. seems rather detatched!<br /><br />Bernard J. Hyphen-Anonymous XVII, Esq.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-40575905173268899902012-07-04T23:08:54.438-04:002012-07-04T23:08:54.438-04:00Indeed,
This is a great succinct call to action. I...Indeed,<br />This is a great succinct call to action. I might use such an approach when discussing AGW to the general public.yoctohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10326767055997535619noreply@blogger.com