tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post4531665572613458041..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Reader RabettEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger83125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-54661235281450847672013-02-02T13:37:33.421-05:002013-02-02T13:37:33.421-05:00On the contrary Eli, Jerry is still a lively stron...On the contrary Eli, Jerry is still a lively strong kicking bunny with all his buttons on and marbles present. <br /><br />I attended his recent seminar on Kuhn's seminal work last year, and very interesting it was too. He rambled a lot less than Sylvia does in her most recent diatribe contra los contras.<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-41269646597033488332013-02-02T11:04:33.239-05:002013-02-02T11:04:33.239-05:00Well Richie, even Jerry's friend Sylvia knows ...Well Richie, even Jerry's friend Sylvia knows that he has rounded the corner and is headed for the home of the emeriti.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-21061004144128472722013-02-02T08:56:51.330-05:002013-02-02T08:56:51.330-05:00I think that Richard is pointing at squirrels.
Or...I think that Richard is pointing at squirrels.<br /><br />Or bunnies, if that's the way one swings.<br /><br /><br />Bernard J.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-33846828356399920702013-02-02T08:26:11.285-05:002013-02-02T08:26:11.285-05:00What a wonderful coincidence that Tol rhymes with ...What a wonderful coincidence that Tol rhymes with troll.<br /><br />Richard, do you think Voltaire was his given name? <br /><br />Also:<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pseudonyms_used_in_the_American_constitutional_debatesa_ray_in_dilbert_spacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-30224041304443357782013-02-02T07:20:19.149-05:002013-02-02T07:20:19.149-05:00That was a bit lame, Richard. Never heard of a pse...That was a bit lame, Richard. Never heard of a pseudonym? It's not as if Professor Rabett's real name isn't bandied about on the interweb. It's the same with Tamino and Deep Climate. Maybe George Eliot was hiding under a rock, too? How about Nigel Persaud?J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-35991017511002095852013-02-02T06:00:24.204-05:002013-02-02T06:00:24.204-05:00Jerry Ravetz is a notable philosopher who has enga...Jerry Ravetz is a notable philosopher who has engaged in public discourse throughout his career. Eli Rabett is pseudonym. Which of these two can best be described as "hiding under a rock".richardtolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14239680555557587153noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-40374266883855377122013-01-25T16:27:55.345-05:002013-01-25T16:27:55.345-05:00The first link should not be
:
http://climateaud...The first link should not be <br />:<br /><br />http://climateaudit.org/2010/12/14/mcshane-and-wyner-discussion-2/<br /><br />but this one:<br /><br />http://climateaudit.org/2010/09/24/mcshane-and-wyner-discussion/<br /><br />willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-37576586470871363212013-01-25T15:46:12.195-05:002013-01-25T15:46:12.195-05:00Ah, McShane and Wyner and their ridiculous analysi...Ah, McShane and Wyner and their ridiculous analysis. Good times.<br /><br />http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/08/16/a-new-hockey-stick-mcshane-and/<br /><br />Rib Smokin' bunnyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-51701637960183722732013-01-25T14:25:32.582-05:002013-01-25T14:25:32.582-05:00Not in the spam folderNot in the spam folderEliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-22471477645528196862013-01-25T14:09:12.275-05:002013-01-25T14:09:12.275-05:00John,
A comment I posted this morning crossed you...John,<br /><br />A comment I posted this morning crossed your last remark about MW commentaries. Don't know if Eli can fish it out from spam. Here was the most cryptic part:<br /><br />> The posterior mode (conditional on λ and σ2) results from minimizing the argument of the exponent with respect to the βj,j = 0...p. This is equivalent to the LASSO optimization problem [Park and Casella, 2008, cf. MW2010, page 13]. <b>It is difficult to imagine a scientifically defensible reason for specifying such a prior in the paleoclimate context.</b> In a Bayesian analysis, draws from the conditional posterior for the β will never result in any of the coefficients being exactly equal to zero: the posterior mode (i.e., the LASSO) is structurally much different from all draws.<br /><br />http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~tingley/Blakeley_Discussion_Tingley_LongVersion.pdf<br /><br />Emphasis added.<br /><br />The only comment I could find discussing Tingley at Steve's was this from a certain ACT:<br /><br />> I suspect Tingley doesn’t understand the importance of the cross-validation step, because what he has done is so easy to rebut and so obviously wrong to anyone with knowledge of the LASSO.<br /><br />http://climateaudit.org/2010/09/24/mcshane-and-wyner-discussion/#comment-245607<br /><br />An interesting comment, considering that Tingley simply used the default values of glmnet: <br /><br />> I do not perform the cross-validation procedure used in MW2010 to determine the LASSO penalization parameter (λ on page 13 of MW2010). Instead, I use the default setting of the glmnet package, which sets λ to be 0.05 times the smallest value of λ for which all coefficients are zero. The LASSO penalization is thus very small.<br /><br />Perhaps frolicsome bunny has an opinion on this matter.<br /><br />Now's your chance, frolicsome one.willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-53475336494474199622013-01-25T11:31:48.991-05:002013-01-25T11:31:48.991-05:00Although more was found later on M&W, even in ...Although more was found later on M&W, even in Sept 2010, there was a section, A.12 in <a href="http://deepclimate.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/strange-scholarship-v1-02.pdf" rel="nofollow">Strange Scholarship...</a> that highlighted some of the problems.<br /><br />People might also "enjoy" the 07/11/11 news release from the Kellogg School of Management, where McShane is a Marketing Prof:<br /><a href="http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/News_Articles/2011/hot-or-cold.aspx" rel="nofollow">Hot or cold? A new study finds that natural phenomena, such as tree rings or ice sheets, are weak predictors of annual global temperatures</a> <br /><br />Note that it links to free copies of the original paper and the M&W rejoinder ... but the commentaries are not so easy to find :-)John Masheynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-86927471110940139122013-01-25T09:20:31.206-05:002013-01-25T09:20:31.206-05:00Steve,
I also forgot that comment on MW by Eduard...Steve,<br /><br />I also forgot that comment on MW by Eduardo Zorita:<br /><br />> The introduction already contains a terrible and unnecessary paragraph, full of errors: [...] Further misunderstandings, this time about climate models: [...] This paragraph, and later other similar paragraphs, tells me that the authors have not really read the original paper by Mann, Bradly and Hughes (1998). [...] Again, wrong. Correctly or incorrectly, this is not what MBH did. [...] Well, this result may be interesting and probably correct, but I doubt it is useful, since I am not aware of any reconstruction using this statistical regression model. <br /><br />Eduardo's conclusion can bear some importance on the difficulties surrounding the concept of extended peer-review:<br /><br />> In summary, admittedly climate scientist have produced in the past bad papers for not consulting professional statisticians. The McShane and Wyner paper is an example of the reverse situation. What we need is an open and honest collaboration between both groups.<br /><br />http://klimazwiebel.blogspot.ca/2010/08/mcshane-and-wyner-on-climate.html<br /><br />Eduardo does not seem to consider MW as an open and honest contribution.<br /><br />No word from McKitrick on that.willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-80579951279579626832013-01-25T09:11:05.916-05:002013-01-25T09:11:05.916-05:00Speaking of repetition, you might appreciate this ...Speaking of repetition, you might appreciate this comment by Ross:<br /><br />http://climateaudit.org/2008/08/10/reconciling-to-wahl-and-ammann/#comment-397356<br /><br />Nowhere is there a mention of the Wegman Report.<br /><br />Auditors might wonder why.<br /><br />***<br /><br />Bunnies might also notice that the link provided to M&W does not lead to its complementary discussion, which can also be found on the Euclid Project, but with some effort:<br /><br />http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&version=1.0&verb=Display&page=toc&handle=euclid.aoas/1300715166<br /><br />Auditors might wonder why.willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-46739426865355934972013-01-24T19:44:42.070-05:002013-01-24T19:44:42.070-05:00RP Jr.'s status requires a constant stream of ...RP Jr.'s status requires a constant stream of new material. As with Lomborg's latest in wsjonline, when there is none (and it does tend to run out early), repetition and fabrication are the order of the day.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-21597245018142987352013-01-24T09:40:29.206-05:002013-01-24T09:40:29.206-05:00Someone should tell Russell that Marshall simply r...Someone should tell Russell that Marshall simply rediscovered Gorgias.<br /><br />Had he read Plato, Dodger's honest brokering persuasion scheme might have been shorter.willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-58073425078397825622013-01-24T08:30:22.224-05:002013-01-24T08:30:22.224-05:00You sound as a Platonician, Steve, at least when c...You sound as a Platonician, Steve, at least when comes the time for a Doritos. Knowledge does seem to compel you to the Good. It's just a pity most of us will cling to our habits no matter how much we read ingredients lists. <br /><br />***<br /><br />This reminds me of the bit where Socrates and Gorgias try to define rhetoric, which bears some historical importance, for that's just after knowledge gets its classical definition of justified true belief:<br /><br />SOCRATES: Shall we then assume two sorts of persuasion,—one which is the source of belief without knowledge, as the other is of knowledge?<br /><br />GORGIAS: By all means.<br /><br />SOCRATES: And which sort of persuasion does rhetoric create in courts of law and other assemblies about the just and unjust, the sort of persuasion which gives belief without knowledge, or that which gives knowledge?<br /><br />GORGIAS: Clearly, Socrates, that which only gives belief.<br /><br />SOCRATES: Then rhetoric, as would appear, is the artificer of a persuasion which creates belief about the just and unjust, but gives no instruction about them?<br /><br />GORGIAS: True.<br /><br />SOCRATES: And the rhetorician does not instruct the courts of law or other assemblies about things just and unjust, but he creates belief about them; for no one can be supposed to instruct such a vast multitude about such high matters in a short time?<br /><br />GORGIAS: Certainly not.<br /><br />SOCRATES: Come, then, and let us see what we really mean about rhetoric; for I do not know what my own meaning is as yet. <b>When the assembly meets to elect a physician or a shipwright or any other craftsman, will the rhetorician be taken into counsel?</b> Surely not. For at every election he ought to be chosen who is most skilled; and, again, when walls have to be built or harbours or docks to be constructed, not the rhetorician but the master workman will advise; or when generals have to be chosen and an order of battle arranged, or a position taken, then the military will advise and not the rhetoricians: what do you say, Gorgias? [...]<br /><br />GORGIAS: I like your way of leading us on, Socrates, and I will endeavour to reveal to you the whole nature of rhetoric. You must have heard, I think, that the docks and the walls of the Athenians and the plan of the harbour were devised in accordance with the counsels, partly of Themistocles, and partly of Pericles, and not at the suggestion of the builders.<br /><br />SOCRATES: Such is the tradition, Gorgias, about Themistocles; and I myself heard the speech of Pericles when he advised us about the middle wall.<br /><br />GORGIAS: And you will observe, Socrates, that when a decision has to be given in such matters the rhetoricians are the advisers; they are the men who win their point.<br /><br />I'm sure you noticed the analogy with physicians, emphasized above. The whole line of reasoning seems to be in use in climate blogland, for instance:<br /><br />http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2010/04/01/a-rooty-solution-to-my-weight-gain-problem/<br /><br />The relationship between knowledge and health does seem quite natural. I'm not sure it works, as I'm more an Aristotelian myself. Perhaps I'm just too much of a creature of habits.<br /><br />***<br /><br />No, we're not indirectly talking about Mike, frolicsome one.willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-765312914358401652013-01-24T06:59:00.456-05:002013-01-24T06:59:00.456-05:00Somebody should tell Willard that Plato served on...Somebody should tell Willard that Plato served only Dorito at his symposia , because he was afraid of the trans-fats in IonitosTHE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-55933899794681594652013-01-24T01:03:47.434-05:002013-01-24T01:03:47.434-05:00This Ravetz guy reminds me of Steve Fuller on Int...This Ravetz guy reminds me of Steve Fuller on <a href="http://www.sadlyno.com/archives/2135.html" rel="nofollow">Intelligent design</a>Pinko Punkohttp://blog.3bulls.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47572444266691726012013-01-23T20:28:35.734-05:002013-01-23T20:28:35.734-05:00This is the song anonytroll is singing:
http://ba...This is the song anonytroll is singing:<br /><br />http://barb.velvet.com/humor/lurkers.html<br /><br />Rib Smokin' bunnyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-20993715285738657712013-01-23T20:20:43.929-05:002013-01-23T20:20:43.929-05:00"[Regarding global temperatures:]
http://www...."[Regarding global temperatures:]<br />http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/holocene.html<br /><br />'In summary, the mid-Holocene, roughly 6,000 years ago, was generally warmer than today, but only in summer and only in the northern hemisphere.'<br /><br />And because of orbital/rotational cycles, at the same time it was warmer in summer at high NH latitudes, it was also COLDER in winter:<br /><br />http://shadow.eas.gatech.edu/~jean/paleo/Lectures/Lecture_15.pdf<br /><br />... hence an average temp lower than current global temps (despite more dramatic seasonal shifts)." from a comment elsewhere.<br /><br />Which of course depends not all all on Mann's so-called hockey stick.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-83938448521379720472013-01-23T20:08:30.659-05:002013-01-23T20:08:30.659-05:00Actually, Willard, giving up Doritos was quite eas...Actually, Willard, giving up Doritos was quite easy. In the end all I had to do was read the back of the package. Of course, with the Doritos I didn't feel compelled to read it more than once. There's some lesson here, I just know there is.<br /><br />But there is hope for me, and I can prove it! Just in the last day over at the Empty Blog I refused to engage on the details of Alexander Harvey's nnth off-topic posting of Lindzen's latest wisdom. I hope you're impressed.<br /> Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-88059214659747853732013-01-23T20:02:03.621-05:002013-01-23T20:02:03.621-05:00Now, ligne, you begin to grasp the horrific scale ...Now, ligne, you begin to grasp the horrific scale of this world-spanning conspiracy. :)Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-16437848960530739272013-01-23T19:59:30.918-05:002013-01-23T19:59:30.918-05:00So anon doesn't like Mann's work.
WE had...So anon doesn't like Mann's work. <br />WE had gathered that. But they still havn't explained why all the usual scientific argy-bargy means that it's okay to call him a fraud and make comparisons between him and various criminals. guthriehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17992984293423290387noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-54356302875496776552013-01-23T19:42:09.104-05:002013-01-23T19:42:09.104-05:00"Also, one cannot help but notice that Mike&#..."Also, one cannot help but notice that Mike's pubs list is rotten, nay, teetering to the point of collapse, with Nature, Science and PNAS. Que?"<br /><br />clearly, having <a href="http://retractionwatch.wordpress.com/category/by-journal/nature-retractions/" rel="nofollow">published</a> papers <a href="http://retractionwatch.wordpress.com/category/by-journal/pnas-retractions/" rel="nofollow">that turn out</a> to be incorrect, they preferred to double down on errors and publish more work from the same corrupt reasearcher, than to face the horror of retraction.lignenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-69582045850736772332013-01-23T19:29:55.429-05:002013-01-23T19:29:55.429-05:00the frolicsome one: "Trust me. I personally ...the frolicsome one: "Trust me. I personally know a number of scientists who doubt his motives, his methods, and his knowledge, and some of them even read this blog. I know because they've told me so. And no, I'm not going to name names, because they didn't give me permission to do so."<br /><br />i once met Jesus.<br />lignenoreply@blogger.com