tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post4512580535765984674..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: The Anti-Watts EffectEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42951128371717950792010-11-19T09:54:42.140-05:002010-11-19T09:54:42.140-05:00Anonymous said "I kind of want to see the mod...Anonymous said "I kind of want to see the modeled effect of a large point emission source, which I don't know that I've seen."<br /><br />I'm not sure how relevant this is but during Gulf War I there was a lot of smoke from oil well fires that was modeled reasonably well.John E Pearsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-90979672073971871312010-11-12T19:49:27.332-05:002010-11-12T19:49:27.332-05:00Closer than one might think. The mighty data bank...Closer than one might think. The mighty data banks are having a run - EliEliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-82982477270627373402010-11-12T17:32:33.213-05:002010-11-12T17:32:33.213-05:00So are we closer to a paper?
Little MouseSo are we closer to a paper?<br /><br />Little MouseAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-1203597860820322922010-11-12T15:24:17.959-05:002010-11-12T15:24:17.959-05:00Horatio was under the impression that the "Ne...Horatio was under the impression that the "Nega-Watts Effect" was the <a href="http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly/menne-etal2010.pdf" rel="nofollow"> cooling bias in "poorly sited" surface weather stations</a>Horatio Algeranonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12988805467080448954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-72122288784853007662010-11-12T12:28:47.943-05:002010-11-12T12:28:47.943-05:00More trivia.
A WUWT accolyte stumbles across a la...More trivia.<br /><br />A WUWT accolyte stumbles across a lamp and rubs it. !!!FLASH!!! a Genie appears and grants him one wish. The WUWT accolyte ponders for a while and says, "I know. To make sure I can keep knowing more about science than those damned CAGW Alarmists, make me a million times smarter!" !!!POOF!!! The Genie turned him into a climate scientist.<br /><br />As you were.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-13211049193827839252010-11-11T22:51:23.039-05:002010-11-11T22:51:23.039-05:00EliRabett --- That would certainly be of interest ...EliRabett --- That would certainly be of interest to determine. The entire problem is a sysmtem identification question which, as I understand it, is not completely resolved. This is partly because there is no sufficiently decent proxy for the long term climate variability.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-18089122529273118412010-11-11T22:34:04.737-05:002010-11-11T22:34:04.737-05:00David, the diff is that Eli is hypothesizing a str...David, the diff is that Eli is hypothesizing a strong regional signatureEliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-60083559477396631862010-11-11T20:00:55.693-05:002010-11-11T20:00:55.693-05:00drj11 --- Not entirely. There is still a small ef...drj11 --- Not entirely. There is still a small effect due to changes in the method of measuring SSTs and also a long-term internal variability approximately measured by the AMO. That just CO2 and AMO work well, here is a zero-dimensional, zero reservoir, decadal model for the instrumental period:<br />http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/10/unforced-variations-3-2/comment-page-5/#comment-189329David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-29687403410347718792010-11-11T04:44:08.911-05:002010-11-11T04:44:08.911-05:00Didn't tamino put this one to bed?
http://tam...Didn't tamino put this one to bed?<br /><br />http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/08/23/antrhopogenic-global-cooling/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-84370741545010033062010-11-10T20:52:23.599-05:002010-11-10T20:52:23.599-05:00EliRabett & Pete Dunkelberg --- The AMO is an ...EliRabett & Pete Dunkelberg --- The AMO is an actual pre-existing quasi-periodic oscillation as determined by, amoung other proxies, northern european tree rings dating back hundreds of years before the beginning of the instrumental period in 1850 CE. Nonetheless, some aspects of volcanic and other aerosol variations are surely going to influence its exact form.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-5253439163019218962010-11-10T19:20:14.072-05:002010-11-10T19:20:14.072-05:00Eli Rabett & Robert Way --- AMO is a proxy, or...Eli Rabett & Robert Way --- AMO is a proxy, or index, of internal variability. It certainly is not a perfect one as, for example Tamino's volcanic lull illustrates. Probably IMP is a better such index. However, the AMO does appear to be correlated with MOC rate changes, although that is quite a difficult subject due to insufficent data.<br /><br />There is also the question of whether the midcentury change in the method of measuring SSTs makes a difference. I'm under the impression there is a paper recently on a combination of that factor and aerosols.<br /><br />Tropospheric aerosol production ought to make a difference and the suggestion <br />to look just regionally for that signal seems a good one to this amateur.<br /><br />As best as I can determine, using just zero dimensional models, even with <br />http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/RadF.txt<br />as the radiative forcing and accounting for ENSO and AMO as internal variability, the models don't manage the fully explain the mid-century (minor) cooling. So I suspect that the earlier SSTs need adjustment to agree with the modern measurement method. Of course I have no idea how to do this. I am under the impression that work on this matter contins at CRU.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-22820430003670036502010-11-10T16:34:12.318-05:002010-11-10T16:34:12.318-05:00In the interest of perfection, it would help to ha...In the interest of perfection, it would help to have the WW2 sea surface temperatures cleaned up with respect to the change in method of measurement. <br /> <br />A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature. Thompson et al. 2008 Nature.<br /><br />I suppose this work is under weigh somewhere. Meanwhile is there a good guess of the difference it will make? <br /><br />Pete DunkelbergAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-61845322351869228762010-11-10T16:08:04.097-05:002010-11-10T16:08:04.097-05:00Robert Way says: I have done quite a bit of work o...Robert Way says: <i>I have done quite a bit of work on this subject and find that you don't NEED to include aerosols to get mid century cooling if the AMO is considered...</i> <br /><br />But then how did the aerosols manage to not do much of anything? <br /><br />Pete DunkelbergAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-25070934297396084092010-11-10T13:56:31.138-05:002010-11-10T13:56:31.138-05:00The problem with an AMO or IMP is that it is a pos...The problem with an AMO or IMP is that it is a post-hoc rationalization of observations, rather than something with physical causes. As to China, they are cleaning out a lot of the old coal burning plants, and replacing them with more efficient ones. Still coal, but a lot less black carbon.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-21223881523224832592010-11-10T13:39:35.348-05:002010-11-10T13:39:35.348-05:00Some trivia about the AMO:
"Yeah, I came up ...Some trivia about the AMO:<br /><br /><i>"Yeah, I came up with the term: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. I coined the term in an interview with Richard Kerr [a writer for Science] in 2000 over a paper with Tom Delworth of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the NOAA Laboratory in Princeton, where we actually were the ones to articulate the existence of this oscillation. And you know what? It was celebrated by contrarians. My work has been celebrated by climate skeptics. It’s an interesting footnote."</i> -- Michael Mann in an interview with Discover MagazineJ Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-11044162707611160302010-11-10T12:52:54.802-05:002010-11-10T12:52:54.802-05:00Yeah i've never really bought the global mid-c...Yeah i've never really bought the global mid-century cooling as being due to aerosols actually. I'm very much in agreement that it is linked to IMP or the AMO essentially just as David Benson shows above. I have done quite a bit of work on this subject and find that you don't NEED to include aerosols to get mid century cooling if the AMO is considered...Robert Wayhttp://www.skepticalscience.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-73913382697478458192010-11-10T12:46:33.951-05:002010-11-10T12:46:33.951-05:00China must surely be producing more global dimming...China must surely be producing more global dimming with her unfiltered coal burning today than the industrialised countries did mid century. <br /><br />Andrew WAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-32875150588344756842010-11-09T21:18:42.385-05:002010-11-09T21:18:42.385-05:00DelSole, T., M. K. Tippett, and J. Shukla, 2010: A...DelSole, T., M. K. Tippett, and J. Shukla, 2010: A Significant Component of Unforced Multidecadal Variability in the Recent Acceleration of Global Warming. J. Climate, submitted.<br />ftp://www.iges.org/pub/delsole/dir_ipcc/dts_science_2010_main.pdfDavid B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-70740999118055844532010-11-09T19:50:30.216-05:002010-11-09T19:50:30.216-05:00Tamino's volcanic lull was svaed in
http://web...Tamino's volcanic lull was svaed in<br />http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:cTkJPW3J9UoJ:https://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/10/19/volcanic-lull/<br /><br />I suggest also looking at indicies of internal variability.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-54798168643552792962010-11-09T17:40:10.560-05:002010-11-09T17:40:10.560-05:00There is increasing cooling during the period - do...There is increasing cooling during the period - does this correlate with varying levels of sulfates/pollution in associated regions?<br /><br />NH is still much more (visibly) hazy than SH. Historical accounts suggest the same was true in 19th century. Presumably there are some relevant observation series (cloudiness, visibility index?) at least since WW2. Another WAG.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02670744040665092720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-64661131146072314772010-11-09T17:31:49.279-05:002010-11-09T17:31:49.279-05:00Interesting thoughts, Eli. Well worthy of further ...Interesting thoughts, Eli. Well worthy of further investigation!<br /><br />Cheers - JohnJohn Masonhttp://www.geologywales.co.uk/stormsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-46959178832539047912010-11-09T16:40:42.373-05:002010-11-09T16:40:42.373-05:00The acid rain laboratorium of the world is China. ...The acid rain laboratorium of the world is China. Data are unfortunately less prolific, I guess. But the problem might be termed one of the worlds largest natural disasters.cRR Kampenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07571285063752477448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-61566765297707137852010-11-09T13:19:41.556-05:002010-11-09T13:19:41.556-05:00Would pan evaporation data be helpful in choosing ...Would pan evaporation data be helpful in choosing your region? Wikipedia's Global Dimming article has some references.<br /><br />Since "sulfate aerosol gets rained out pretty quick," are you going to be looking for wetter (or drier) months?<br /><br />This is a variant: "Wild assed guess, no EDUCATION required." Just watch NOVA.Same Ordinary Foolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07688744006745904247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-60733925242709265462010-11-09T12:33:37.957-05:002010-11-09T12:33:37.957-05:00Pinatubo and el Chichon were explosive volcanoes t...Pinatubo and el Chichon were explosive volcanoes that pushed SOx up into the lower stratosphere where the fall out time is a year or so (very dry up there so there is no rainout. Normally SOx converts to sulfuric acid aerosol fairly fast and rains out locally.<br /><br />One of the nasty things that happened is when the US Clean Air Act specified local emission limits, the utilities built huge stacks to move the acid rain deposition pattern further away. Even then the deposition pattern is only regional.<br /><br />Eli was somewhat aware of the NADP but had not put it together with this, which is the point of this sort of speculation with others. You get a better picture.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-90951410694898431482010-11-09T11:52:13.124-05:002010-11-09T11:52:13.124-05:00Are you aware of the National Atmospheric Depositi...Are you aware of the National Atmospheric Deposition Program? This is the link to SO4 changes in precip from 1985 to 2005<br /><br />http://nadp.sws.uiuc.edu/data/amaps/so4/amaps.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com