tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post4492420131694800869..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: Mother Nature is Not Sitting IdleEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger59125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-3723312828260421132015-09-01T21:50:08.116-04:002015-09-01T21:50:08.116-04:00Oh, and Tom Fuller, the area of temperate land (wh...Oh, and Tom Fuller, the area of temperate land (where we do most of our food-growing) is decreasing:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/srep13487" rel="nofollow">http://www.nature.com/articles/srep13487</a><br /><br />Given that this trend is really still only in the beginning stages with respect to where we're going to take the climate, we should all be very concerned.Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-52274538713171405192015-09-01T20:50:47.348-04:002015-09-01T20:50:47.348-04:00Tom Fuller, you can mathturbate as hard as pleases...Tom Fuller, you can mathturbate as hard as pleases you, but the laws of physics/thermodynamics and of biology/ecology trump your uncontextualised equations.<br /><br />And when it comes to science you are demonstrably woefully uninformed, so your opinions are worth less than toilet paper.<br /><br />Just in case no one's ever told you before...Bernard J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16299073166371273808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-57751197638418951732015-09-01T19:12:34.700-04:002015-09-01T19:12:34.700-04:00http://web.mit.edu/ceepr/www/publications/workingp...http://web.mit.edu/ceepr/www/publications/workingpapers/2010-016.pdf<br /><br />One of the critical risks facing an investor in a nuclear power plant is uncertainty about the plant’s realized capacity factor. Realized capacity factors show great variation.<br />Although the typical investor’s cash flow model of a proposed plant shows a projected capacity factor of 85% or more, many reactors have problems achieving this target. Oftentimes the shortfall is quite large. According to the Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) database maintained by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the realized capacity factor is less than 50% in more than 10% of all reactor years.<br />Blogger profilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00960226353157929688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-65900274607272438192015-09-01T18:43:54.792-04:002015-09-01T18:43:54.792-04:00Well, BBD, feel free to think that the truth is a ...Well, BBD, feel free to think that the truth is a load of bollocks. If it makes you happy.<br /><br />You will be ignored as the ignoramus you are, though. So you won't do any damage.<br /><br />Clearly you don't know anything other than what you've thought was a good argument for nuclear and what was a good argument against renewables, but the truth of the matter is you've been lied to and you were a willing gullible fool.Blogger profilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00960226353157929688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-89316354955127200032015-09-01T17:40:08.807-04:002015-09-01T17:40:08.807-04:00Well, Wow, you believe whatever bollocks makes you...Well, Wow, you believe whatever bollocks makes you happy.<br /><br />You won't know it because you are fairly clueless about energy, but your exchange with Sam above was simply embarrassing. As in you embarrassed yourself. Like Sam, I am not prepared to discuss energy with you further because you combine topic ignorance with a particularly toxic belligerence. <br /><br />Anyway, I've been through this already with you elsewhere and it was a waste of pixels last time.<br /><br /> BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-58881539029479294652015-09-01T17:30:17.123-04:002015-09-01T17:30:17.123-04:00"Regional-scale anticyclones take down *all* ..."Regional-scale anticyclones take down *all* the UK's wind."<br /><br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_breeze<br /><br />"At night"<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_solar_power<br /><br />"and during the winter, *all* the (eg.) UK's solar goes down."<br /><br />http://www.gaisma.com/en/location/london.html<br /><br />Making shit up is lying too.<br /><br />Just an FYI.Blogger profilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00960226353157929688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-40633627366612512172015-09-01T17:26:31.067-04:002015-09-01T17:26:31.067-04:00"This does NOT APPLY to nuclear, where the ba..."This does NOT APPLY to nuclear, where the backup does not have to cope with the simultaneous loss of the entire national reactor fleet."<br /><br />No, that has different problems.<br /><br />Like, for example, being unable to run because there's no cooling water available without being illegal to do so.<br /><br />Or flooding causing the coastal sites to be shut down to avoid a nuclear accident a la Fukishima.<br /><br />And what doesn't apply to solar is the cost of keeping and not being able to neutralise the waste we produce.<br /><br />If you're going to find problems with a generation type, please find all of them for all types of generator. Lying by omission is still lying.Blogger profilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00960226353157929688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-7074503030458814412015-09-01T17:23:40.388-04:002015-09-01T17:23:40.388-04:00BBD, what misconception? We already HAVE proof tha...BBD, what misconception? We already HAVE proof that over 20% does not cause instabilities. And the loss of wind power is no worse than the loss of other power when both Windscale and Didcot were both out. And of course the problems were blamed on renewables.<br /><br />However, we have this big HVDC link to the continent here. And we have one to the north (to Norway?) and we will be putting in one more.<br /><br />How many mesoscale synoptic systems span the entirety of Europe?<br /><br />About none?<br /><br />Therefore there is no risk and the *miniscule* risk of significant drop UK wide power by high pressure systems "somehow" also giving long lasting cloud cover over the entire UK at the same time are ENTIRELY mitigated by the current links we have and the long distance losses possibly causing some issue will be further reduced by the future connection.<br /><br />I hope this fundamental misconception on your part is now resolved.<br /><br />We no more need backup for a UK wide blackout of the sun and wind for a week than we need backup for the entire coal fired power station network catching fire all at the same time.Blogger profilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00960226353157929688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-92139430240467380392015-09-01T16:29:47.710-04:002015-09-01T16:29:47.710-04:00BP
And since nuclear needs such massive backup to...BP<br /><br /><i>And since nuclear needs such massive backup to hold over whilst it is out of action for six months at a time, replacing nuclear with renewables should even each other out, the one taking the backup of the other.</i><br /><br />You didn't understand this last time we had aspects of this conversation either.<br /><br />At night, and during the winter, *all* the (eg.) UK's solar goes down.<br /><br />Regional-scale anticyclones take down *all* the UK's wind.<br /><br />Therefore the backup capacity has to be enough to cope with *all* the lost capacity.<br /><br />This does NOT APPLY to nuclear, where the backup does not have to cope with the simultaneous loss of the entire national reactor fleet.<br /><br />I hope this fundamental misconception on your part is now resolved. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-44801949145257845092015-09-01T16:02:11.034-04:002015-09-01T16:02:11.034-04:00Dinworig was never costed to nuclear power either....Dinworig was never costed to nuclear power either.<br /><br />Damn expensive it was too.<br /><br />Same for the HVDC line to France...Blogger profilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00960226353157929688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-85424455191200559622015-09-01T16:01:11.212-04:002015-09-01T16:01:11.212-04:00"The cost of integrating wind and solar incre..."The cost of integrating wind and solar increases as their share of the energy mix increases. At low levels (say below 20%) they can be free riders"<br /><br />Not as far as the current reality that has been achieved so far, BBD. The only ones being disrupted and costing more are the leaden and unresponsive large scale centralised power systems that burn coal or uranium fuel.<br /><br />No destabilisation from it at all. Maybe for some cockamamie cowboy-built generation network done by unskilled labour with a criminal lack of oversight and regulation, but in all those built by actually worthwhile engineers that have passed that level, none of them have displayed any problems.<br /><br />YMMV depending on how badly your country does its engineering. Not so good if what I hear from your creationists investments in bringing education back to the middle ages...<br /><br />As to power storage, you are again incorrect. LiPo et al is absolutely fine and dandy for it, the only problem at the moment is that production was for laptops and handheld devices, but Tesla's gigafactory will help produce much bigger batteries.<br /><br />And since nuclear needs such massive backup to hold over whilst it is out of action for six months at a time, replacing nuclear with renewables should even each other out, the one taking the backup of the other.<br /><br />"It's the absolutely vast amount of new build backup capacity that is the problem."<br /><br />The only problem with that is that that "vast amount" is a shibboleth created out of thin air to scare people unto not trying.<br /><br />Given the load following characteristics of wind+solar, it needs much less capacity to cover the required load. "capacity factor" really just hides that load imperfection for those generations that don't handle it and pretends it exists when it doesn't for others.<br /><br />If your network can't handle 40% or more right now, you were stiffed with morons hiring monkeys to build.Blogger profilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00960226353157929688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-45605047999890644542015-09-01T15:35:06.665-04:002015-09-01T15:35:06.665-04:00Brian
Note the same trend is happening for batter...Brian<br /><br /><i>Note the same trend is happening for battery power</i><br /><br />Not AFAIK at utility scale, because that technology doesn't really exist yet. Yes, I know there are various R&D projects but no proven, established product to which economies of scale might then apply.<br /><br /><i>Absolute prices are less interesting IMHO than the trend line, esp. when discussing the long term.</i><br /><br />The cost of integrating wind and solar <b>increases</b> as their share of the energy mix increases. At low levels (say below 20%) they can be free riders, relying on existing reserve capacity for backup against intermittency and slew. <br /><br />Go beyond that and you have to build new backup capacity which is hugely expensive and *never* costed in the 'analyses' I have seen of large-scale W&S deployment. <br /><br />Instead, the same (fallacious) reasoning is always used: the cost of the turbines and SPV (mainly SPV, really) exhibits a long term downward trend so big W&S will be really cheap. That's nonsense. The cost of the actual SPV panels is essentially irrelevant at scale. It's the absolutely vast amount of new build backup capacity that is the problem.<br /><br />Nobody seems to grasp this, which is frustrating. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-55185140767258165682015-09-01T10:01:23.156-04:002015-09-01T10:01:23.156-04:00Oh, just look at trump. Hell, the entire establish...Oh, just look at trump. Hell, the entire establishment on the republican side: doesn't matter if you lie like Chemical Ali, just lie CONFIDENTLY and never care about what you're saying.Blogger profilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00960226353157929688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-88841132545157155092015-09-01T09:56:04.231-04:002015-09-01T09:56:04.231-04:00Tom
Heatwaves will indeed impact agriculture. The...Tom<br /><br /><i>Heatwaves will indeed impact agriculture. They always have. More of them may impact agriculture more. But not enough to overcome the advances made by better agricultural practices, higher levels of technology and better strains of crops. </i><br /><br />Such certainty and not a single reference.<br /><br />Perhaps because such certainty isn't to be found in the literature.<br /><br />So instead, lie. BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-10876322372344658282015-09-01T09:00:15.709-04:002015-09-01T09:00:15.709-04:00Especially me what? Tarzan, you Jane?
What is you...Especially me what? Tarzan, you Jane?<br /><br />What is your purpose in posting nonsense with no content and no meaning?<br /><br />Your post is nothing other than "Tides come in, tides go out, never a miscommunication, you can't explain why".<br /><br />You see, ACTUAL ADULTS who know how to think and read, know that these heatwaves don't just happen because gaia or god or satan or pixies make it so on a whim.<br /><br />Mystical "just so stories" were dropped from most adults' toolbox for understanding. But not yours. Because infantilism was when you were safe and cosetted and special to big important people and you have never gotten over the fact that you are no longer that special little baby they cooed over.Blogger profilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00960226353157929688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-11210517744727960512015-09-01T08:55:27.770-04:002015-09-01T08:55:27.770-04:00Especially not you, BP.
BBD, I wish I could stick...Especially not you, BP.<br /><br />BBD, I wish I could stick to words of one syllable, but... <br /><br />Heatwaves will indeed impact agriculture. They always have. More of them may impact agriculture more. But not enough to overcome the advances made by better agricultural practices, higher levels of technology and better strains of crops.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-48840870655773591772015-09-01T06:42:11.878-04:002015-09-01T06:42:11.878-04:00Of course not, Tom Fullerthanadunnywagon never wan...Of course not, Tom Fullerthanadunnywagon never wants anything to change.Blogger profilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00960226353157929688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-37647296063193290152015-09-01T05:38:53.221-04:002015-09-01T05:38:53.221-04:00Predictably, Tom persists in refusing to acknowled...Predictably, Tom persists in refusing to acknowledge that the increasing prevalence of eg. summer heatwaves will eventually lead to global food insecurity and all the bad stuff that goes with it. <br /><br />Now for those of us that are prepared to *admit* that there is a climate problem, this is a <i>humanitarian</i> issue. <br /><br />Instead, Tom wants to make it all about me. <br /><br />Stupidity is only one of the possibilities. <br /><br />BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42799523853110787112015-09-01T05:26:31.948-04:002015-09-01T05:26:31.948-04:00"A mean souled thug hiding behind a paper thi..."A mean souled thug hiding behind a paper thin veneer of courtesy? Maybe. A monomaniacal hack who hates humanity as much as he loves his conception of a pure environment?"<br /><br />All together now: It's ALWAYS projection!Blogger profilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00960226353157929688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-24596492891435059722015-09-01T03:54:08.583-04:002015-09-01T03:54:08.583-04:00Tom Fullerthanadunnywagon, there are lots of peopl...Tom Fullerthanadunnywagon, there are lots of people already in Asia. They are not happy about dying in their thousands or starving due to weather related disasters.<br /><br />However, to you, they're all nignogs and johnny foreigners and of no account, unless you can use them as a valuable resource.<br /><br />Such as, for example, complaining that they're going to be made poor by changing how we generate energy.<br /><br />Of course your insanity won't stop you from concocting a NWO conspiracy to give those same foreigners all your money in a world wealth redistribution scam.<br /><br />After all, it's only the sane people who have to limit themselves to one reality at a time.Blogger profilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00960226353157929688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42086238796300869522015-08-31T20:17:53.807-04:002015-08-31T20:17:53.807-04:00Come to Asia any time and see how the vast majorit...Come to Asia any time and see how the vast majority of agriculture here is pre-Borlaug. To say the developing world's agricultural practices can... develop further... is not to exaggerate. I believe 70% improvement can come just from better practices.<br /><br />As for BBD, your bitterness sounds more like BP. Hiding the 60% (which you call 70%) required additions? Hardly. I've featured it in my blog.<br /><br />People who have advanced beyond counting on fingers and toes know it's the same. People who are mathematically challenged but understand its importance know of places that have CAGR calculators and can have someone do the math for them in seconds. Would you like references to a few such sites BBD?<br /><br />I'm not saying you're stupid, BBD. You might think that, but I would never suggest such a thing. A mean souled thug hiding behind a paper thin veneer of courtesy? Maybe. A monomaniacal hack who hates humanity as much as he loves his conception of a pure environment? Possibly. <br /><br />But stupid? Well, that depends on how you define stupid. You never seem to win any of the arguments you participate in. Your chosen venue--Deltoid--is remarkable for the vapidity and repetitive nature of the discussions there. I've never seen you write anything surprising or interesting. You seem to think you're destroying your opponents when in fact you're just acting silly.<br /><br />Why someone would rage on the way you do could have a dozen different explanations. Stupidity is only one of the possibilities.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-15745475194547389962015-08-31T15:51:50.483-04:002015-08-31T15:51:50.483-04:00What are the odds that agricultural yields will in...What are the odds that agricultural yields will increase into the indefinite future? What are the odds that economic substitutes of petroleum-based fertilizers will be discovered? What are the odds that heat waves in the future won't stunt or destroy crops in the field? What are the odds that the poor won't turn to destabilizing migrations in the future? What are the odds that civil unrest will spark mere lethargy and despair? The important thing is the wealth of carbon plutocrats so <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMHvrfsx0HU" rel="nofollow">it just doesn't matter. </a>Jeffrey Davishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966839006518642902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-1942154979224094842015-08-31T13:58:27.579-04:002015-08-31T13:58:27.579-04:00Oh and of course deniers are capable of blatant in...Oh and of course deniers are capable of blatant intellectual dishonesty like trying to hide the 70% headline figure by quoting only the annual 1.5% growth figure. Then pretending - when the deceit is exposed - that the other person is stupid.<br /><br />BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-36706420976409094882015-08-31T13:55:58.931-04:002015-08-31T13:55:58.931-04:00Tom
The point you are deliberately missing is tha...Tom<br /><br />The point you are deliberately missing is that 70% is <b>a very large amount</b>.<br /><br />Meanwhile, extreme summer heatwaves increase in frequency and yields start to fall.<br /><br />But hey, deniers deny. It's all they are capable of. <br />BBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10687930416706386215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-25912361680259738902015-08-31T11:21:04.611-04:002015-08-31T11:21:04.611-04:00Last time I looked the FAO said 60%. But what the ...Last time I looked the FAO said 60%. But what the hey--35 years at 1.5% per year gets you a 70% growth rate.<br /><br />No wonder Jeff Id laughs at your mathematical capabilities.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.com