tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post3630583772731918545..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: A Message From CivilizationEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-28383475957209284202012-11-12T09:29:12.100-05:002012-11-12T09:29:12.100-05:00I have to say that I have little patience with the...I have to say that I have little patience with the progressives who say Obama is worse than Bush. Although the Electoral college vote was lopsided, many of the wins in swing states were by the thinnest of margins. <br /><br />Obama did what an incumbent President must--count to 270. He took some significant risks--including ending DADT, refusing to support DOMA and explicitly supporting marriage equality. These could have suppressed African American voter turnout and cost him the election. It is easy to armchair quarterback. It is quite another thing to try to steer an unweildy and balky ship of state through the narrow shoals offered by a 50/50 electorate.a_ray_in_dilbert_spacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-75744012929869478492012-11-11T20:28:15.237-05:002012-11-11T20:28:15.237-05:00David Bensen ... yeah, more scarier.
David Bensen ... yeah, more scarier.<br />dhogazanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-16123810253813239522012-11-10T22:45:45.929-05:002012-11-10T22:45:45.929-05:00J Bowers --- You got it.<b>J Bowers</b> --- You got it.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-86523606019518610902012-11-10T19:36:08.866-05:002012-11-10T19:36:08.866-05:00It is sad that so many people with large expertise...It is sad that so many people with large expertise, even within physics, are unwilling to acknowledge their limitations. Nate Silver is just the last in a long line of people who know a lot, just not enough, and are unwilling to say so. It's so much easier for us amateurs to be humble.susanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16829151452002682271noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-87114451406100365302012-11-10T06:18:33.527-05:002012-11-10T06:18:33.527-05:00Gary Younge's piece in the Grauniad is well wo...Gary Younge's piece in the Grauniad is well worth a read:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/09/obama-drop-blind-devotion" rel="nofollow">After Obama's re-election, liberals need to drop the blind devotion</a><br /><br /><i>It's time for progressives to stop fawning over the president and start following his example by pushing for change</i>J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-39596308446838782702012-11-10T06:16:58.518-05:002012-11-10T06:16:58.518-05:00@ David Benson, is that:
Future warming likely to...@ David Benson, is that:<br /><br /><a href="https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/8264/future-warming-likely-be-high-side-climate-projections-analysis-finds" rel="nofollow">Future warming likely to be on high side of climate projections, analysis finds</a>J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-87082964471315315082012-11-10T01:32:08.007-05:002012-11-10T01:32:08.007-05:00dhogaza --- Check the latest press relase from NCA...<b>dhogaza</b> --- Check the latest press relase from NCAR.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-55200878489967746952012-11-09T20:06:39.463-05:002012-11-09T20:06:39.463-05:00Greg Ridley:
"In particular, Loths appeal to...Greg Ridley:<br /><br />"In particular, Loths appeal to Mann's authority. Mann is not a statistician. In fact, I would say he is not particularly strong in that department which is one of his downfalls."<br /><br />"downfalls"? The Mann's had an extremely successful career, has garnered numerous rewards, is highly respected within his field, and you speak of "downfalls"? That's pretty hilarious.<br /><br />Don't bother bringing up McI.<br /><br />Regarding Silver, he may be a fine statistician, but he seems to miss the fact that Hansen's 1988 predictions ran a bit warm because it incorporated an estimated climate sensitivity of 4.2C. Missing this is not a statistical error on Silver's fault, it is a basic failure to understand the model he has criticized. Most likely because he got it from a denialist who is a marketing guy not interested in telling the truth.<br /><br />Today's accepted most-likely range for sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is about 3C, and the projections we see today that scare reasonable people are based on that. Not 4.2C. That's a big miss on Silver's part.dhogazanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-12155141550526805692012-11-09T19:55:57.965-05:002012-11-09T19:55:57.965-05:00"Then, we can decide to reinstate Texas' ..."Then, we can decide to reinstate Texas' status as an independent country, and withdraw the statehood granted in 1845."<br /><br />Even easier, we can just simply retroactively agree to their secession at the beginning of the civil war ...dhogazanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-25779346470187695002012-11-09T12:04:37.157-05:002012-11-09T12:04:37.157-05:00Realising Australia and Canada have weevil univers...Realising Australia and Canada have weevil universal healthcare, Boehner and McConnell have decided it's time to push the USA over that cliff and double down on obstructionism. Wankers.J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-88676642145136936122012-11-09T06:50:33.728-05:002012-11-09T06:50:33.728-05:00"Notstradamus"
-- by Horatio Algeranon
..."Notstradamus"<br /><br />-- by Horatio Algeranon<br /><br />Natestradamus <br />Nails elections,<br />But on the climate<br />Peddles fictionsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-39426111081396371422012-11-09T06:25:53.512-05:002012-11-09T06:25:53.512-05:00Another more accurat version of what Eli posted
S...Another more accurat version of what Eli posted<br /><br />So Obama won and you're moving to<br />Australia<br />Compulsory voting<br />Universal healthcare<br />Strict gun control<br />Evolution taught as fact in schools<br />A tax on carbon dioxide<br />Medical abortions supported by law<br />No death penalties<br />A ban on nuclear weapons<br />Strong regulation of banks and money markets<br />Compulsory superannuation contributions<br />Freedom of speech not enshrined in law<br /><br />WELCOME!Lloyd Flackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00832519369660328832noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-3688165018976441092012-11-09T02:19:58.115-05:002012-11-09T02:19:58.115-05:00"All due respect, I am not impressed with tho...<i>"All due respect, I am not impressed with those answers.</i><br /><br />OK, so presumably you have good reasons?<br /><br /><i>"In particular, Loths appeal to Mann's authority."</i><br /><br />Hmmm, I'm not appealing to Mann's <i>authority</i>. I'm relaying his <i>informed arguments</i>. I haven't seen you respond to those yet, other than to argue you're not impressed for dubious reasons.<br /><br /><i>"Mann is not a statistician. In fact, I would say he is not particularly strong in that department which is one of his downfalls."</i><br /><br />Er, say what? You're not impressed by critiques of <b>statistician</b> Nate Silver's comments on <b>climate science</b> because Mann isn't a statistician? That does not follow!<br /><br /><i>"I just find it odd that Silver is considered the best at what he does--crunch numbers--yet doesn't "get it" when it comes to climate models which are exactly what he excels at. Math and models."</i><br /><br />Well, you and others find it odd, but that doesn't mean the oddness is incorrect.<br /><br />All models are not alike as John Mashey points out above, and hence all modeling expertise is not fungible to different types of models. In particular Nate's expertise at polling-based models does NOT translate into expertise at physics-based models, no matter how confidently Nate or anyone else asserts that it does.Lotharssonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-10176107397673911872012-11-09T01:41:18.625-05:002012-11-09T01:41:18.625-05:00Matt Ridley:
'Mann is not a statistician. In f...Matt Ridley:<br />'Mann is not a statistician. In fact, I would say he is not particularly strong in that department which is one of his downfalls.'<br /><br />So, who's a good statistician?<br />John Masheynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-61975634380897272292012-11-09T00:49:45.615-05:002012-11-09T00:49:45.615-05:00Maybe the knowledgeable people can tell me if this...Maybe the knowledgeable people can tell me if this demonstrates Silver's mistake:<br /><br />Say you have a reasonably deep lake. You've taken a small number of readings of the temps at lake bottom, ranging from 1C to 3C. The scientist says that the lake bottom will not drop below 0C, while Nate says it could - the small number of data points leaves an uncertainty that could take it well below 0C.<br /><br />How's that?Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09301230860904555513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-56817785883598500622012-11-08T23:26:56.626-05:002012-11-08T23:26:56.626-05:00Ah, but Australia is over 93% white. That's t...Ah, but Australia is over 93% white. That's the main thing we want in a country, if we'd just be honest with ourselves. The politics don't really matter, but the demographics do. Australia is perhaps the last large white nation left on Earth, other than Russia.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-58100190930381918942012-11-08T23:01:35.851-05:002012-11-08T23:01:35.851-05:00Greg, the really big statistical point in all this...Greg, the really big statistical point in all this discussion about Silver is that he works on Bayesian principles. As soon as you claim that in relation to climate, you have no option but to get a handle on the physics involved. It's not at all like the human decision type problems in economics or politics where you look only at numbers. You must, must, must take account of the physical principles governing climate. <br /><br />Using the approach he took, he finished up with the same kind of elementary errors as a lot of amateurs, not just the professional deniers. That's why Mann and several other Silver admirers are so disappointed. Silver thought he was applying the correct approach, but he fell at the first hurdle. <br /><br />MinniesMumAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42662562763874141502012-11-08T22:54:22.809-05:002012-11-08T22:54:22.809-05:00You are missing the point Greg, Nate Silver is gre...You are missing the point Greg, Nate Silver is great at statistical modeling. In his models the trends are not constrained by the physics. Climate models are not statistical models but physical ones which are constrained.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-36425460370500030172012-11-08T22:33:08.936-05:002012-11-08T22:33:08.936-05:00All due respect, I am not impressed with those ans...All due respect, I am not impressed with those answers. In particular, Loths appeal to Mann's authority. Mann is not a statistician. In fact, I would say he is not particularly strong in that department which is one of his downfalls.<br /><br />I just find it odd that Silver is considered the best at what he does--crunch numbers--yet doesn't "get it" when it comes to climate models which are exactly what he excels at. Math and models. Physics becomes numbers in models. So why is he so inept? Why is this the area where he misses it?<br /><br />I have followed Silver since before 2008. I followed him during this election and pointed many his way. I find it odd that he is soooooo right with all the other things he does, but doesn't "get" climate modelling. <br /><br />Mann says he's wrong so he is? If you say so.<br /><br />Greg RidleyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-31927183145931541372012-11-08T21:56:14.970-05:002012-11-08T21:56:14.970-05:00And the last word on the Romney campaign.And the last word on the <a href="http://meemsy.com/v/3721" rel="nofollow">Romney campaign</a>.Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-19029293809032011022012-11-08T18:05:00.489-05:002012-11-08T18:05:00.489-05:00I would recommend Paraguay for the weeping Republi...I would recommend Paraguay for the weeping Republicans. Abortion is illegal, everyone owns guns, nobody pays taxes, and Government is small enough to strangle in a bathtub. They don’t speak English but if you just talk louder and wave your hands a bunch I’m sure they will eventually understand you. <br /><br />-Dirt Girl<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-34513280290204930362012-11-08T14:33:43.452-05:002012-11-08T14:33:43.452-05:00I read a lot but I'd missed all mentions of Na...I read a lot but I'd missed all mentions of Nate Silver's book, let alone his climate chapter errors, til yesterday. Good pointers on that above -- worth a topic heading gathering them together somewhere.<br /><br />Maybe he's got an editor who'd listen if he goes to another printing or edition.Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-4610183430605294102012-11-08T12:03:37.505-05:002012-11-08T12:03:37.505-05:00The problem with applying Nate Silver's modeli...The problem with applying Nate Silver's modeling techniques to climate is that climate is constrained by physics and statistics is not. See Andy Lacis somewhere or other. It's not even second law stuff but basic conservation of energyEliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-72289517367994871112012-11-08T12:02:26.081-05:002012-11-08T12:02:26.081-05:00SB The picture is a jpg in the Blogger cache and s...SB The picture is a jpg in the Blogger cache and should be copyable from there.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-5009773808903343402012-11-08T10:20:49.197-05:002012-11-08T10:20:49.197-05:00Dr. Lumpus Spookytooth, phd.
@snow bunny
I said ...Dr. Lumpus Spookytooth, phd.<br /><br />@snow bunny<br /><br />I said ballot iniative. Of course I know that state legislature's have approved it, usually in the face of majority opposition. But please, post your mistake on facebook and make a fool out of yourself.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com