tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post3443853454334940778..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: A Train Wreck AvoidedEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-17657932961788375422015-04-20T17:16:40.365-04:002015-04-20T17:16:40.365-04:00Susan , as tomy view of uncertainty science and po...Susan , as tomy view of uncertainty science and politics part polemic company when either, or worse, both , of the parties to a debate, paint the data in brighter colors than the error bars.<br /><br />In the days before the crash, and the post Joe Kennedy SEC put a stop to it , stock jobbers long and short made an art form of painting the tape, a practice not unheard of in the climate wars.<br /><br />One solution that I have tried to teach is to unplug the data set entirely, and <a href="http://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2015/03/better-than-best.html" rel="nofollow"> shove the result in faces of those who cavill about the other fellow's taste in cherries.</a><br /><br />Unfortunately, the Society for the Suppression of Rubber Graph Paper has no standing in the conflict.<br /><br />THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-45675140309371632252015-04-18T11:25:32.584-04:002015-04-18T11:25:32.584-04:00BPL: "FL: Agricultural crash due to drought s...BPL: "FL: Agricultural crash due to drought secondary to global warming."<br /><br />Here in the American West, the ongoing drought is a serious topic. AGW-deniers are trumpeting recent findings of regional multi-year droughts occurring on millennial time scales, as "proof" the current drought isn't related to AGW. <br /><br />They're ignoring the difference between previous droughts and the current one, which is that it's warmer now. Evapo-transpiration rates have risen with temperature, depleting soil moisture earlier in the growing season; mountain snow packs have declined because winters are warmer, leading to reduced stream flow and reservoir storage at the time of greatest demand by crops and natural ecosystems; forests are entering fire season at historically low fuel moisture levels, ready to burn. <br /><br />The upshot is that even if changes in regional precipitation can't yet be attributed to AGW, nevertheless orchards are being uprooted, desert species are expanding their ranges and forests are giving way to scrubland. Meanwhile, deniers deny.Mal Adaptedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06123525780458234978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-89581437223651815782015-04-18T10:07:00.341-04:002015-04-18T10:07:00.341-04:00Russell, you might be amused to know that I also t...Russell, you might be amused to know that I also took the opportunity to show PWA some vvattsupwiththat posts which made him laugh.Susan Andersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16935228911713362040noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-69576431811925502872015-04-18T10:00:41.015-04:002015-04-18T10:00:41.015-04:00Not to worry. I'm a sporadic visitor, here...Not to worry. I'm a sporadic visitor, here's a recap.<br /><br />Because of a variety of inputs from Tenney, RabettRun, and elsewhere my father, PW Anderson (Nobel '77, amorphous semiconductors), who is 91, and I located his copy of the APS comment email.<br /><br />At first he thought the statement was OK, and read the FAQs which emphasized that the new statement was more "succinct". There's nothing wrong with his mind, and while he will consult with me about climate, particularly the appalling politics, he thinks for himself.<br /><br />Having extracted a promise from him to keep an open mind while I hunted for good arguments on the subject, he eventually arrived at the conclusion that he would comment, and also mention it to his friends.<br /><br />My rough rendering of what he told me (and I can be sloppy, mind you), was that he felt it was peculiar to emphasize succinct as a desirable goal and that the science and events have become clearer over time, so emphasizing uncertainty was inappropriate. (I call it weasel language, with no insult intended to Stoat.)<br /><br />(ps, some of us are targets for certain underhanded web activities at times, though one is not skillful enough to trace the problem(s) ... fwiw)Susan Andersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16935228911713362040noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-90577526729504674372015-04-17T16:55:09.451-04:002015-04-17T16:55:09.451-04:00Susan, absolutely not, and Eli replied to you and ...Susan, absolutely not, and Eli replied to you and that is gone too. Very strange. Appreciate it if you repost.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-58318747733798721462015-04-17T10:50:07.064-04:002015-04-17T10:50:07.064-04:00I'm puzzled by the removal of my comments. Di...I'm puzzled by the removal of my comments. Did I say something wrong?Susan Andersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16935228911713362040noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-38047410623109213642015-04-17T10:44:38.238-04:002015-04-17T10:44:38.238-04:00BPL, it's not only drought, too much rain can ...BPL, it's not only drought, too much rain can be just as lethal. In the summer of 2010 while the Russian wheat crop was being ravaged by drought Pakistan's crops was being washed away by rogue monsoon floods. And while Australia's Murry River basin in the south baked dry, fields in Queensland drowned.<br /><br />Fernando, are you really that dense? Agriculture is what makes civilization possible, not fossil fuels. Agriculture on the industrial scale required to feed a population of 7 billion and counting requires predictable and reliable precipitation, something we are loosing as climate warms and changes. Agriculture is civilization's Achilles' heel in a changing and disrupted climate.Jim Eagerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10448459024892788259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-40600911445630347862015-04-17T10:11:43.448-04:002015-04-17T10:11:43.448-04:00Fernando - EIA has consistently and vastly underes...Fernando - EIA has consistently and vastly underestimated renewables growth to date. I believe that report estimates a best case tripling of renewables by 2040, when the current annual growth regularly exceeds 50%.<br /><br />The people primed to believe in conspiracies would go nuts over this if they paid any attention to it.Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09301230860904555513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-62646337319670024352015-04-17T07:53:01.750-04:002015-04-17T07:53:01.750-04:00FL: Agricultural crash due to drought secondary t...FL: Agricultural crash due to drought secondary to global warming.Barton Paul Levensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07630802738456749652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-45777183106509495512015-04-17T03:38:47.331-04:002015-04-17T03:38:47.331-04:00Here's the latest OPEC monthly report.
http:...Here's the latest OPEC monthly report. <br /><br />http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR_April_2015.pdf<br /><br />They forecast an increase in oil and other liquids consumption (OPEC is disguising the figures by adding biofuels and natural gas liquids to the total). Fernando Leanmehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16085680730729620836noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-33025420763548837542015-04-17T03:36:35.983-04:002015-04-17T03:36:35.983-04:00BPL: and the basis for a civilization crash in 202...BPL: and the basis for a civilization crash in 2028 is what? An epidemic? Nuclear war? Fernando Leanmehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16085680730729620836noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-39981668177284456352015-04-17T03:36:35.605-04:002015-04-17T03:36:35.605-04:00BPL: and the basis for a civilization crash in 202...BPL: and the basis for a civilization crash in 2028 is what? An epidemic? Nuclear war? Fernando Leanmehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16085680730729620836noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-84249920927155382122015-04-16T14:34:33.869-04:002015-04-16T14:34:33.869-04:00> Let's see what Isaac Held thinks about it...> Let's see what Isaac Held thinks about it.<br />Another interesting bit:<br /><br />DR HELD: No — well, yes, they are. I’m sorry. They are both in chapter 10 of AR5. In fact, they are both right next to each other in the summary of chapter 10. And so, for people who read chapter 10, these are two different statements. And it’s discussed in some detail in chapter 10.<br /><br />DR. CURRY: The issue is what showed up in the summary for policymakers.<br /><br />DR. LINDZEN: And the press release.<br /><br />DR. CURRY: And the press release, yes.<br /><br />DR. KOONIN: That’s not science, but it’s important.<br /><br />DR. HELD: <b>I want to stick to the science. I am not saying it's not important.</b><br /><br />http://www.aps.org/policy/statements/upload/climate-seminar-transcript.pdf<br /><br />You're welcome.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-37209642332666555212015-04-16T14:18:14.876-04:002015-04-16T14:18:14.876-04:00Hank, we don't have to go above 3-4C for civil...Hank, we don't have to go above 3-4C for civilization to collapse, we just have to sufficiently disrupt industrial-scale agriculture. <br /><br />We're already well on the way in California. Now just combine it with another Russian heat wave and wild fires, and/or an Australian heat wave and wild fires, and/or a rogue or failed south Asian monsoon, all in the same year.<br /><br />If we don't get our act together pdq, it's just a matter of time before the shit hits the fan.<br />Jim Eagerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10448459024892788259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-90534235911596236152015-04-16T13:58:49.230-04:002015-04-16T13:58:49.230-04:00Fernando still fails to grasp the purpose of the f...Fernando still fails to grasp the purpose of the fossil fuel divestment movement. It's not an economic strategy, it's a public education strategy meant to undermine public support for the track meet.Jim Eagerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10448459024892788259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-26494597485911650112015-04-16T13:30:35.751-04:002015-04-16T13:30:35.751-04:00Arctic sea ice loss at summer solstice will produc...Arctic sea ice loss at summer solstice will produce a regional forcing that is equivalent to almost doubling CO2 globally. This will severely impact permafrost disassociation and possibly lead to a self-sustaining microbial decomposition. Speleotherm data indicates nearly universal permafrost decomposition with only 2-3C warming than today on the global average. This regional effect will produce a non-linear temperature response with anomalies as high as 20C above seasonal norms, as well as increased cloudiness during the winter months. Combine this albedo forcing, 350 to 1000 Gt of carbon from permafrost, boreal forest and tropical peat fires and the reduction of ocean DMS from acidification and we can easily reach 8C by 2100, on the way to 16C by 2300. This is under BAU until collapse scenario.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15367966962520006086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-37529814089863972272015-04-16T12:01:10.825-04:002015-04-16T12:01:10.825-04:00'I guess it should be between three and four d...'I guess it should be between three and four degrees hotter. We used to think that we were headed for +8°C, but that will never happen. We are not even on track for +6°C because economies will be collapsing long before we get there....'<br /><br />BPL: Unless, of course, we set off geophysical runaways that will make the problem much, much worse even if our industrial economy breaks down. Clathrate release, for instance.Barton Paul Levensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07630802738456749652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-83128468845359321532015-04-16T11:02:47.915-04:002015-04-16T11:02:47.915-04:00PS for BPL:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/till-br...PS for BPL:<br /><br />http://www.huffingtonpost.com/till-bruckner/climate-change-economy-gr_b_7056418.html<br /><br />"I asked Christopher Reyer how much hotter he thought the planet would be by the year 2100.... his best personal guess, a single number.<br /><br /> 'I guess it should be between three and four degrees hotter. We used to think that we were headed for +8°C, but that will never happen. We are not even on track for +6°C because economies will be collapsing long before we get there....'"Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-6514072584586231522015-04-16T10:59:00.018-04:002015-04-16T10:59:00.018-04:00Ah: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/phy...Ah: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/physicists-battle-over-meaning-of-incontrovertible-in-global-warming-fight/<br /><br />Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-40468835016744429042015-04-16T06:45:24.760-04:002015-04-16T06:45:24.760-04:00FL: Let me give you an insight: the world will co...FL: Let me give you an insight: the world will consume less fossil fuels in the future because prices will be too high, and the industry won't have the technology to extract sufificient volumes to satisfy demand. <br /><br />BPL: Let me give YOU an insight: The civilization of Earth will collapse in 2028, +/- 6 years. It doesn't much matter what we do at this point. I divested in fossil fuel stocks because it was the right thing to do, not because I thought it would make a difference.Barton Paul Levensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07630802738456749652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-77506691129726364162015-04-16T04:22:55.544-04:002015-04-16T04:22:55.544-04:00Barton, divesting stocks is like wearing high heel...Barton, divesting stocks is like wearing high heel sandals to a track meet. <br /><br />Did you read the Energy Information Agency's 2015 outlook? I put a link to the summary I prepared in an earlier comment. The EIA forecast says Obama's proposal to reduce CO2 emissions won't be met, that renewables will not take off as a major contributor by 2040, and that oil prices will climb relentlessly as the existing reserves are depleted. <br /><br />Let me give you an insight: the world will consume less fossil fuels in the future because prices will be too high, and the industry won't have the technology to extract sufificient volumes to satisfy demand. <br /><br />I have a comment for the APS: recommend fast paced research in geoengineering. Fernando Leanmehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16085680730729620836noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-86380014709393461432015-04-15T17:39:37.057-04:002015-04-15T17:39:37.057-04:00Excess of John M's here. Eli meant John Mashe...Excess of John M's here. Eli meant John Mashey. Apologies!EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-17232919210567152772015-04-15T16:34:19.239-04:002015-04-15T16:34:19.239-04:00I submitted to Dr. Jaffe in March during the panel...I submitted to Dr. Jaffe in March during the panel discussion.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15367966962520006086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-74201345787390607692015-04-15T15:54:25.579-04:002015-04-15T15:54:25.579-04:00So John what was your comment to Kate Kirby?So John what was your comment to Kate Kirby?EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-5234861267498108262015-04-15T14:40:50.217-04:002015-04-15T14:40:50.217-04:00~40 years ago, I used to run across people writing...~40 years ago, I used to run across people writing C code whose results were equivalent to UNIX grep(1) with the right flags, maybe with a UNIX shell procedure. The message to people was: know what exists and save invention for things that need it. <a href="https://www.usenix.org/legacy/events/bsdcon/tech.html" rel="nofollow">There was a long campaign</a> to get people to re-use software rather than spending much effort reinventing.<br />Thus:<br />a) Expert(s) write and review useful new program<br />b) Less-expert people use it,<br />c) Less-expert people spend a lot of time debating it, writing a new program from scratch, less capable than a) and arguably buggier.<br /><br /><br />Wikipedia has a long list of <a href="http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change" rel="nofollow">statements on climate</a> by science societies. <br /><br />I know this leaves room for far less creativity and committee meetings, but here's a process:<br /><br />1) POPA reads Wikipedia to find other statements.<br /><br />2) POPA selects a few recent ones by societies filled with domain experts, like <a href="http://news.agu.org/press-release/american-geophysical-union-releases-revised-position-statement-on-climate-change/" rel="nofollow">2013 AGU (2013) statement, with list of (reviewers, all but one concurred</a> or <a href="http://www.geosociety.org/positions/pos10_climate.pdf" rel="nofollow">GSA (2013),</a> with <a href="http://www.geosociety.org/positions/roster/pos10.htm" rel="nofollow">its panel</a>, who together have 1000+ peer-reviewed pubs of which many are relevant. And there are others.<br /><br /><br />3) The POPA statement then becomes in total:<br />"We concur with Society X and encourage physicists to learn about climate science and when appropriate get engaged with research efforts.<br /><br />That's the equivalent of the 1-line shell script that invokes grep with the right options.<br /><br />Personally, I'd probably pick X = AGU, but I might be biased:<br />1) I know or know the work of more of the people on review panel<br />2) The one dissent is actually a positive :-)<br />3) I'm an AGU member as well as APS.JohnMasheyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08174651130367553996noreply@blogger.com