tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post3114248876168142527..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: GRL doi:10.1029/2011GL049236 Andy Dessler does not like Spencer and Braswell very muchEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-40670714642159704642011-09-28T15:22:50.184-04:002011-09-28T15:22:50.184-04:00The paper (SB11) caused me to wonder about the sui...The paper (SB11) caused me to wonder about the suitability of one-dimensional models to estimate sensitivity. I found they are one method used to do it, among many. I see now I. Held confirming that. Of course, the work would need to be done properly. from:<br /><br />An Introduction to Simple Climate Models used in the IPCC SAR ed. John Houghton 1997 (~48 pgs.) <br />http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/paper-II-en.pdf<br /><br />(~ pg 14). . . Radiative-convective models thus provide one means for determining one of the key feedbacks which are important to climate sensitivity through a combination of observations and well established physical processes. <br /><br /><i>One-dimensional upwelling-diffusion ocean models.</i>. . . <br />This model is used primarily to study the role of the oceans in the surface temperature response to changes in radiative forcing. <br /><br />see associated fig 2 of such a model.Jay Althttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11146408415375034447noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-60776839449105505562011-09-10T23:50:43.639-04:002011-09-10T23:50:43.639-04:00Neven finally went over to Uni Bremen rather than ...Neven finally went over to Uni Bremen rather than the JAXA analysis. (Yes Eli knows)EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-22739951649913237832011-09-10T12:54:19.554-04:002011-09-10T12:54:19.554-04:00For the 14 people who might not have heard:
http:...For the 14 people who might not have heard:<br /><br />http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/09/historical-minimum-in-sea-ice-extent.html<br /><br />Jeffrey "No ice and just a few drops of branch water" DavisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-71979962947094195922011-09-09T11:04:58.091-04:002011-09-09T11:04:58.091-04:00More "Both Sides Now" (per)versification...More "Both Sides Now" (per)versification:<br />(see above)<br /><br />...<br /><br />Mann's and Jones' and hockey sticks<br />The human driven temp uptick<br />And arctic sea ice melting quick<br />I've looked at graphs that way<br /><br />But now it's just another show<br />You leave 'em laughing when you go<br />And if you care, don't let them know<br />Don't give yourself away<br /><br />I've looked at graphs from both sides now<br />From Mann and Watts and still somehow<br />It's graphicillusions I recall<br />I really don't know graphs at all<br /><br />Web awards and feeling proud<br />To say "Conspiracy" right out loud<br />Dreams and schemes and circus crowds<br />I've looked at climate that way<br /><br />But now old colleagues are acting strange<br />They shake their heads, they say I've changed<br />Well something's lost, but something's gained<br />In blogging every day<br /><br />I've looked at climate from both sides now <br />From journals and blogs and still somehow<br />It's skepticillusions I recall<br />I really don't know climate at all<br /><br />I've looked at climate from both sides now <br />From up and down, and still somehow <br />It's skepticillusions I recall<br />I really don't know climate at allHoratio Algeranonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12988805467080448954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-3011270800680185132011-09-08T21:55:32.750-04:002011-09-08T21:55:32.750-04:00Rain makes applesauce.<i>Rain makes applesauce.</i>David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-60035435049528152422011-09-08T10:36:56.195-04:002011-09-08T10:36:56.195-04:00Pete - I believe they are saying the model was rec...Pete - I believe they are saying the model was recommended to SB by Issac Held, who did not Held their hands when they f'd it up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-52494093290907135302011-09-08T10:29:31.044-04:002011-09-08T10:29:31.044-04:00"Both Sides Now"
Horatio Algeranon'..."Both Sides Now"<br /><br />Horatio Algeranon's rendition of the Joni Mitchell song<br /><br />Rows and flows of Pachauri hair<br />And IPCC castles in the air<br />And alarmist scientists ev'rywhere<br />I've looked at clouds that way<br />But now they only block the sun<br />They change the temperature for everyone<br />So many papers I would have done<br />But clouds got in my way<br />I've looked at clouds from both sides now<br />As feedback and forcing, and still somehow<br />It's cloud illusions I recall<br />I really don't know clouds at allHoratio Algeranonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12988805467080448954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-32419375152551826722011-09-08T08:55:18.710-04:002011-09-08T08:55:18.710-04:00Clouds don't cause clouds.
Jeffrey "Runa...Clouds don't cause clouds.<br /><br />Jeffrey "Runaway Warning" DavisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-584948140787863612011-09-07T20:53:15.414-04:002011-09-07T20:53:15.414-04:00Pete,
Isaac Held's blog is well worth followi...Pete,<br /><br />Isaac Held's blog is well worth following. Check out his third and fourth posts. They describe one and a two dimensional models and how these simple models can help us understand more complex ones. They might be similar to Spenser's but are much more clearly explained. Held makes no grand claims for their utility beyond their instructional utility.<br /><br />http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/blog/isaac-held/<br /><br />Paul MiddentsPaulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13742905742181959851noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-59381268020462577322011-09-07T20:44:33.050-04:002011-09-07T20:44:33.050-04:00The collective hippocampus of our popular media is...The collective hippocampus of our popular media is so damaged or congenitally absent that the industry resembles a case study from one of Oliver Sacks' books. There's no consolidation of memory to allow retrieval of events and thus narrative continuity from last week or last month, let alone last year. <br /><br />For my part I'm quite certain the connection between Dessler's paper and Spencer's PR blitz would never have been made without a sensational jolt.dbostromhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17688448471618219440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-23167101154722811832011-09-07T19:27:18.273-04:002011-09-07T19:27:18.273-04:00@ Doug, would it have been in Ars Tecnhica if FOX,...@ Doug, would it have been in Ars Tecnhica if FOX, Forbes and Heartland hadn't made such a broo-ha about SB11?J Bowersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-20153250266815953742011-09-07T19:02:03.963-04:002011-09-07T19:02:03.963-04:00@Dr Chocolate:
"the earth is below it's ...@Dr Chocolate:<br /><br />"the earth is below it's average temperature and below its average co2 level"<br /><br />What's this, comedy hour at the undergraduate debating society? <br /><br />William TAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-86553485275481084452011-09-07T18:53:16.421-04:002011-09-07T18:53:16.421-04:00Pete,
Despite his name being thrown around, Held ...Pete,<br /><br />Despite his name being thrown around, Held is not very interested in this debate/tiff, or at least he wasn't until very recently.<br /><br />Roy claims that Held suggested he use the one-box model. Roy also claims that Held has said that SB11 was a good paper. I have not been able to find such a claim, at least not on the web.<br /><br />So perhaps it might be that Held will shed some light on this relatively soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-19944427942468809832011-09-07T17:45:36.161-04:002011-09-07T17:45:36.161-04:00I asked first! In this thread and at least one ot...I asked first! In this thread and at least one other I find Held said this! No he didn't. Did so. <br /><br />PeteAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-53989311415517462472011-09-07T17:36:06.277-04:002011-09-07T17:36:06.277-04:00Pete,
Can you elaborate please?Pete,<br /><br />Can you elaborate please?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-9677409716701136332011-09-07T16:19:17.735-04:002011-09-07T16:19:17.735-04:00OK I'll ask: What is the reference or link to ...OK I'll ask: What is the reference or link to Issac Held? <br /><br />Pete DunkelbergAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-17997601055943371582011-09-07T16:07:30.169-04:002011-09-07T16:07:30.169-04:00RN:
"Thanks for also pointing out the blatan...RN:<br /><br />"Thanks for also pointing out the blatantly obvious."<br /><br />In case it wasn't clear, I meant thanks for pointing it out to Judith.dhogazanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-75358799674044478442011-09-07T16:02:45.264-04:002011-09-07T16:02:45.264-04:00As predicted, dead cat bounce.
Would Dessler'...As predicted, <a href="http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2011/09/simplified-model-in-recent-climate-paper-doesnt-even-conserve-energy.ars" rel="nofollow">dead cat bounce.</a><br /><br />Would Dessler's paper have been noticed at the "Ars Technica" level of the food chain without Wagner's resignation? I'll be bold and give it a solid "no."dbostromhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17688448471618219440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-47199602104085388212011-09-07T15:39:21.893-04:002011-09-07T15:39:21.893-04:00Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd.
@Ratty Norwegian
Roy's...Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd.<br /><br />@Ratty Norwegian<br /><br />Roy's cherry pick huh? Excuse me Ratty, your side has caused global cherry prices to soar, as you have a near monopoly on cherries. You guys started the warming trend and started at 1800 or 1850, I've seen both starting points used. Meanwhile, you tactically avoided telling the public the earth is below it's average temperature and below its average co2 level. Making extremely hypocritical statements hurts your credibility, Ratty.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-80117354066522671462011-09-07T15:07:15.113-04:002011-09-07T15:07:15.113-04:00Spencer has responded to the cherry picking, how g...Spencer has responded to the cherry picking, how good is he at picking ripe fruit?Recovering in the Florida Keyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07913299764512464597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-10617403655473507782011-09-07T12:16:43.337-04:002011-09-07T12:16:43.337-04:00RN:
"She missed the rather blatant cherry pi...RN:<br /><br />"She missed the rather blatant cherry pick pointed out by Dessler!"<br /><br />Well, she did say 'if they did that, that's a no-no" but even after I provided the obvious hint, she didn't bother to check either the paper or Dessler's response which points it out. Thanks for also pointing out the blatantly obvious.<br /><br />And, yes, AA, Mosher's pretty funny ... the strongest argument they've got seems to be the 4 year-old child's rant ... "Mike did it first!!!!!".dhogazanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-57388155594112663252011-09-07T04:40:07.167-04:002011-09-07T04:40:07.167-04:00Rattus,
The most amusing thing on that thread at ...Rattus,<br /><br />The most amusing thing on that thread at Curry's is Steven Mosher continually popping up to claim it's all Michael Mann's fault.andrew adamsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-27245751598431479772011-09-06T22:45:12.886-04:002011-09-06T22:45:12.886-04:00Oops. Emmy Noether.Oops. Emmy N<b>oe</b>ther.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-81747643704151911542011-09-06T21:21:56.645-04:002011-09-06T21:21:56.645-04:00Eh, the flow has been slowing down, but this may m...Eh, the flow has been slowing down, but this may mark the end.Rattus Norvegicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03449457204330125792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-63957569056079141732011-09-06T21:17:48.123-04:002011-09-06T21:17:48.123-04:00Rattus Norvegicus --- Any left to leak?<b>Rattus Norvegicus</b> --- Any left to leak?David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.com