tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post2816976359599571291..comments2024-03-18T03:27:18.777-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: The Problem of ChoiceEliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-46445514806645125132012-12-06T12:02:07.412-05:002012-12-06T12:02:07.412-05:00Ray, two points -
first, this is normal political ...Ray, two points -<br />first, this is normal political business of information-flow management, not conspiracy. The degree of effective censorship has been detailed by the late great Stephen Schneider, among others.<br /><br />Second, while scientists in general may have been content with IPCC output in 2008, I'd take some convincing that those in the Earth sciences are now. Excluding not one but six out of seven interactive mega-feedbacks from proper review for 20 years is a fundamental error, and a failure of science's duty to inform society of an existential hazard. That duty cannot in my view be abdicated by informing a small fraction of the political class.<br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />LewisLewis Cleverdonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-49175213932051349762012-12-06T10:36:38.415-05:002012-12-06T10:36:38.415-05:00Lewis,
Surveys have shown that a large majority of...Lewis,<br />Surveys have shown that a large majority of scientists are satisfied with the summary of the IPCC. This has been documented several times, including in the 2008 survey by Bray and von Storch. <br /><br />Remember, that the IPCC is by definition a consensus document. It will not go as far as some in the field would like (e.g. you) and will go further than others are comfortable. <br /><br />Leave conspiracy theories to the denialist loonies. You cannot hope to outdo them.a_ray_in_dilbert_spacenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-67638308161417833392012-12-06T04:30:50.485-05:002012-12-06T04:30:50.485-05:00Eli - it's not often that I manage to generate...Eli - it's not often that I manage to generate a 180 degree misunderstanding in the reader. You wrote:<br /><br />"Facts are that the IPCC reports are, within their constraints, e.g. the political convocation at the end of each process, the best available science of their time. If anything the political influence has biased these reports to the least alarming possibility and that the scientific part of the drafting process itself is quite cautious."<br /><br />Just to be clear, I would entirely agree with your assessment if it described the reports as "the best available global overview of the science - as I'm of the opinion that the scientific input is degraded by mandated political pressures to understate the rising hazard in the output reports. Quite where your misunderstanding arose I'm not clear.<br /><br />Should we readers of Rabbet Run take it that you are content that the Inter-Governmental Panel should continue to exclude proper account of the observed acceleration and prognoses for even such feedbacks as albedo loss and permafrost melt ? Or would you welcome the benefits of an independent global scientific assessment that helps keep the Panel focussed on the appalling damage and dire scientific projections now unfolding in the real world ?<br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />LewisLewis Cleverdonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-83127992498000448562012-12-05T14:47:31.662-05:002012-12-05T14:47:31.662-05:00It is Eli's experience that when Louis present...It is Eli's experience that when Louis presents a closely reasoned argument that reaches a non-evidenciary conclusion, the place to start is with the assumptions. Contrary to his assertions:<br /><br />Facts are that the IPCC reports are, within their constraints, e.g. the political convocation at the end of each process, the best available science of their time. If anything the political influence has biased these reports to the least alarming possibility and that the scientific part of the drafting process itself is quite cautious. There is a clear trace through the twenty years of reports showing increasing certainty of dire conclusions and that the attempts to delegitimatize them are the result of a well funded campaign of industrial interests coupled to an economic ideological base.<br /><br />So no, Eli does not agree that the process is broken, just that there are some who would like to break it.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-42062776021033956762012-12-05T00:21:22.167-05:002012-12-05T00:21:22.167-05:00A plea:
For those like me who take new informatio...A plea:<br /><br />For those like me who take new information best as ASCII, someone point to a list of transcripts -- text files -- that will be available, somewhere, eventually.<br /><br />Oh please.Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-86635147551401062572012-12-04T00:56:45.505-05:002012-12-04T00:56:45.505-05:00Eli – I wonder if we may agree that the IPCC is no...Eli – I wonder if we may agree that the IPCC is not simply a channel by which govt.s are empowered to censor the climate science reaching both the UNFCCC and the public – via the media misrepresenting its findings as the scientific consensus ?<br /><br />I’d suggest that it is also the global sink for most scientists’ concerns (apart from individual efforts like Hansen, Mann, Anderson and a few others who endure massive attack) for where else than the IPCC can they hope to get their views heard on the global stage ?<br /><br />Given that the global UNFCCC negotiations must, by mandate, limit their considerations to the info supplied by IPCC, and that body has yet to even hint at an apology for its grossly misleading prognoses over two decades – such as projecting the loss of arctic ice cover in the wrong century,<br />and given that it promotes as the consensus works that persist with basing patently failed models not on what observations state is the present condition but on what it would be if the models had proven correct,<br />it is hard to see any reason for the IPCC to retain scientists’ credibility – other than the lack of a credible alternative forum for a global climate science assessment.<br /><br />For the IPCC to have excluded proper account of all of the peer-reviewed findings of the acceleration of six out of seven mega-feedbacks from all Assessment Reports to date - is patently worse than incompetent. To now refuse to include them in AR5, with the acceleration of Albedo Loss, Permafrost Melt, Forest Combustion and Soils Desiccation becoming patently obvious, is not only highly discreditable – it indicates a high degree of institutional corruption-by-mandate. It is, after all, the Inter-Governmental Panel on climate change, not an Independent Scientific Authority on climate destabilization.<br /><br />From this perspective it seems urgently necessary to initiate an independent global climate science entity, comprising scientists of standing in their fields,<br />under a title on the lines of: “Independent Climate Science Authority”<br />with a remit of providing assessments annually of:<br />- a current overview of climate dynamics and the prognoses for their development;<br />- a critique of the shortcomings of the most recent output by the IPCC, particularly its contrasts with its submitted papers and with more recent publications;<br />- a review of the current parameters for a commensurate global policy of mitigation to comply with the UNFCCC preventive mandate and of the requisite techniques thereof.<br /><br />What I cannot tell is just what fraction of climate scientists would welcome the launch of an independent climate science authority. It would not of course in any way preclude scientists contributing to IPCC as well as ICSA – the resulting contrasts in output would be highly informative to policy-makers and to the public alike. But equally I’d doubt that prevaricators with scientific credentials would find they attracted consensus support for their participation.<br /><br />So how would we go about taking soundings among scientists and, if they were positive, encourage the launch of such an organization ?<br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />Lewis<br /><br />Lewis Cleverdonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-68016216634170060192012-12-03T10:28:08.333-05:002012-12-03T10:28:08.333-05:00Quick followup:
WattsBuster raw data results are ...Quick followup:<br /><br />WattsBuster raw data results are plotted in red, adjusted data results in green. The official NASA/GISS "meteorological stations" results (included for comparison purposes) are plotted in blue.<br /><br />--caerbannog the anonybunnyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-67293052959902246942012-12-03T10:23:24.993-05:002012-12-03T10:23:24.993-05:00Well, I guess that now is not a bad time to announ...Well, I guess that now is not a bad time to announce the developers' preview release of WattsBuster-2.0. It's even less user-hostile than WattsBuster-1.0. (once you get past the pig-sized 1G download, that is -- sorry, didn't have time to make it smaller).<br /><br />Thanx to html/javascript kindly supplied by Nick Stokes, I was able to ditch the QGIS interface and replace it with a browser-based Google Maps front-end.<br /><br />I wrapped it all up in a VirtualBox Linux virtual machine appliance file, so that (in theory) it will run on most any Mac/Windows/Linux machine enough memory (suggest 1 GB or more).<br /><br />The appliance file can be downloaded from http://tinyurl.com/wattsbuster2<br /><br />To run WattsBuster 2.0, just install and launch VirtualBox (virtualbox.org), import the appliance file and hit the VirtualBox "Start" button.<br /><br />A GoogleMap browser window will appear, along with a popup window with controls that let you filter GHCN stations by urban/rural status, data record length, etc.<br /><br />Apply the filter controls to display "long duration" stations and see how few stations you need to replicate the NASA/GISS results.<br /><br />When you start clicking on stations, a data plot panel (gnuplot) window will appear and will show global-avg results updated with each new station that you click on. The upper plot shows global-avg temps; the lower plot shows how many of your selected stations actually reported data for any given year.<br /><br />AGU attendees who want to abuse their hotels' free wifi can start downloading the appliance file now in the hopes that the download will finish before the conference ends.<br /><br /><br />--caerbannog the anonybunnyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com