tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post1607185205055690643..comments2024-03-19T03:14:04.172-04:00Comments on Rabett Run: EliRabetthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-43865990952297513242009-07-08T21:03:18.104-04:002009-07-08T21:03:18.104-04:00Here's another example of why the obvious ain&...Here's another example of why the obvious ain't necessarily so:<br /><a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1253" rel="nofollow"> Modiki El NiƱos and Atlantic hurricane activity</a><br />And <a href="http://capitalclimate.blogspot.com/2009/07/more-florida-heat-records-in-july.html" rel="nofollow">hot</a> may also be <a href="http://capitalclimate.blogspot.com/2009/07/dc-definitely-cool-in-first-week-of.html" rel="nofollow">not</a>.CapitalClimatehttp://capitalclimate.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-29226266017350704722009-07-08T10:04:09.157-04:002009-07-08T10:04:09.157-04:00It is possible that "warmer sea surface tempe...It is possible that "warmer sea surface temperatures will lead to stronger tropical cyclones" will turn out to be true for some regions of the globe, but not others.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070417182843.htm" rel="nofollow">"Global Warming Increases Wind Shear, Reduces Hurricanes, Climate Model Shows"</a><br /><br /><br />"Wind shear is one of the dominant controls to hurricane activity, and the models project substantial increases in the Atlantic," said Gabriel Vecchi, lead author of the paper and a research oceanographer at GFDL. "Based on historical relationships, the impact on hurricane activity of the projected shear change could be as large -- and in the opposite sense -- as that of the warming oceans."<br /><br />"While other studies have linked global warming to an increase in hurricane intensity, this study is the first to identify changes in wind shear that could counteract these effects. "The environmental changes found here do not suggest a strong increase in tropical Atlantic hurricane activity during the 21st century," said Brian Soden, Rosenstiel School associate professor of meteorology and physical oceanography and the paper's co-author. However, the study does identify other regions, such as the western tropical Pacific, where global warming does cause the environment to become more favorable for hurricanes."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-45874218302857308212009-07-07T23:43:33.105-04:002009-07-07T23:43:33.105-04:00Hurricanes are tropical cyclones, not all tropical...Hurricanes are tropical cyclones, not all tropical cyclones are hurricanes. Sometimes you see interesting parsing on this point.<br /><br />However, who here believes that warmer sea surface temperatures won't lead to stronger tropical cyclones?EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-1114799772613454802009-07-07T09:29:28.823-04:002009-07-07T09:29:28.823-04:00Kerry Emanuel, among others has pointed out that t...Kerry Emanuel, among others has pointed out that there have been just too few hurricanes that have made landfall in the US to support the claim of increased damages due to global warming. he thinks it will be about 2050 or so before the statistics can say anything about such a claim, one way or the other.<br /><br />"Thus while we can already detect trends in data for global hurricane activity considering the whole life of each storm, we estimate that it would take at least another 50 years to detect any long-term trend in U.S. landfalling hurricane statistics, so powerful is the role of chance in these numbers." -- Kerry Emanuel<br />http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/anthro2.htm<br /><br /><br />The problem is actually very similar to trying to nail down the temperature trend over the short term with sparse data. Random fluctuation just plays too big a role to say anything with any great certainty.<br /><br />The logic makes sense (increased SST's increase hurricane intensity which increases damages from any given storm), but logic is not the same as scientific evidence.<br /><br />For example, other things may come into play. What if global warming also leads to increased wind shear which tends to limit storms? <br /><br />Also, if it turns out that global warming produces stronger storms but fewer storms overall (as some scientists think may be the case), the collective damage might actually decrease, even though each bigger storm produces more damage than it would have in the absence of warming.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-63053327281958797942009-07-07T00:48:22.421-04:002009-07-07T00:48:22.421-04:00Andrew caused historically high damage in a year (...Andrew caused historically high damage in a year (1992) with only 6 Atlantic storms.CapitalClimatehttp://capitalclimate.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-16186377087078873212009-07-06T19:52:21.227-04:002009-07-06T19:52:21.227-04:00CoRev also agrees that this correlation is at best...CoRev also agrees that this correlation is at best forced. SST and land falling hurricane/typhoons and then into a densely populated area with high value structures gets just a little tenuous. At least for me.CoRevhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04596551339753480833noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-75086713998567193022009-07-06T18:59:33.185-04:002009-07-06T18:59:33.185-04:00I'm very skeptical. Isolating natural hurrica...I'm very skeptical. Isolating natural hurricane losses, anthropogenic hurricane losses (or maybe something in the middle, i.e., hurricanes that would have happened anyway but were a few percent more intense), fully accounting for losses in the early part of the time series record, as well as increases in socio-economic infrastructure in vulnerable areas is pretty sketchy business...this is a new approach and something which should be investigated much further.chris colosehttp://www.chriscolose.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-24310188403419671902009-07-06T18:38:39.856-04:002009-07-06T18:38:39.856-04:00Nick looks like your scatterplot can be found on p...Nick looks like your scatterplot can be found on p. 550 here:<br /><br />http://severe.worldweather.org/iwtc/document/Topic_5_2_Roger_Pielke_Jr.pdf<br /><br />From text:<br /><br />"Figures 5.2.7a and 5.2.7b shows the lack of meaningful relationship between normalized U.S. hurricane damages (NHC data, transformed with the natural log) and North Atlantic sea surface<br />temperatures 1950-2005 and 1950-2004.47 The r-squared values are low with or without 2005<br />included, and the regression results are not statistically significant (p = 0.28 and 0.69 respectively).<br /><br />There is consequently no systematic evidence that higher SSTs are systematically associated with larger losses."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-30471692894546691362009-07-06T14:13:36.735-04:002009-07-06T14:13:36.735-04:00Since there are so many stronger pieces of evidenc...Since there are so many stronger pieces of evidence, why focus on the one atmospheric effect which is probably the <a href="http://capitalclimate.blogspot.com/2007/07/more-heat-less-humidity-some-light.html" rel="nofollow">most tenuous</a>? Doesn't that just give the deniers a free strawman to beat up on? As Landsea and other tropical skeptics are fond of pointing out, SST is a <b>necessary</b> condition for cyclone development, but it is hardly <b>sufficient</b>. Wind shear, both horizontal and vertical, is extremely important, and it is influenced in complex ways by large-scale circulation responses to the balance of various forcings. Throwing landfall probability and damage impacts into the chain of evidence muddies the water even further.CapitalClimatehttp://capitalclimate.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-67356591836865541812009-07-06T12:55:36.786-04:002009-07-06T12:55:36.786-04:00Two things about the chart:
1. Please explain the...Two things about the chart:<br /><br />1. Please explain the right-hand axis.<br /><br />2. I have to say, it doesn't eyeball as very correlated. The red line maybe has an upward trend from the mid 80s. The blue (and therefore black) data is all over the place, with a crazy 2005 outlier (Katrina, I assume). Let's see a scatter-plot.Nick Barneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00057838251997644583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16612221.post-11456211932130606332009-07-06T12:18:39.440-04:002009-07-06T12:18:39.440-04:00Eli,
I like the DenialCon analogy. A new report q...Eli,<br /><br />I like the DenialCon analogy. A new report questioning the link between fertilizer use (on corn) and hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Corn Growers Association takes a novel approach to denial of science. Rather than take one position (no hypoxia, nitrogen is not to blame, corn is not to blame for the nitrogen, etc.) the report invokes all five DenialCon stages. I suppose the same can be said for Heartland's <br />"non-IPCC" reportsSimon Donnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01844831377442275615noreply@blogger.com